September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?
Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?
The GFS & ECMWF are showing landfall around 5-10pm this afternoon. The ECMWF is a little further west but slower overall while the GFS shows landfall across Matagorda Bay. Based on the latest radar data I would probably aim for closer to the 10pm timeframe. If we see another center relocation that could add change things some
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?
Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.
Center relocation has moved up landfall by several hours.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Scott747
Posts: 1488
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:56 am
Location: Freeport/Surfside Beach
Contact:

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself. :)

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..
Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Andrew wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:04 am
snowman65 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..
Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.
thanks!
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Scott747 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:00 am I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself. :)

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.
Probably just rotating around the broader low and trying to tuck in closer to the convection. Recon should be telling in the next hour or two.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

06Z ECMWF is a little slower with the turn to the northeast and shows most of the region seeing 5-10 inches
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
cperk
Posts: 768
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

Channel 13 just reported Nicholas has slowed down to 5mph.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 71 guests