September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:41 am

Nicholas still remains sheared to the east and while strengthening has occurred we need to monitor if additional convection can fire to the west.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:47 am

0z Euro in lock step with NHC. Nicholas is cranking, although east sided. Could be a CAT 1 in the morning before shear hampers development .

Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:05 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 4:09 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:22 am

For a minute I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me and there was another center reformation to the e. Looked that way on satellite but you can still see the current center on BRO radar.

But I go back to yesterday and some of the crazy pinball movements in the GFS and sure enough the 6z GFS has one more center reformation to the e/ene in 3-6 hrs. Don't think it will have a major impact on final landfall just something to look out for.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:05 am

Southwesterly shear is still impacting the storm a good bit. The center of Nicholas still remains southeast of Brownsville and with not much additional convection firing overhead, it may be difficult to sustain some of the convection further east. Not the healthiest storm, but still a lot more developed compared to yesterday.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 am

Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:32 am

KGYF which is approximately 120NM NE of the center is reporting wind speeds of 53kts currently. While the ob is ~200ft above the water it's still impressive the distance that tropical storm-force winds will likely be felt during landfall

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:36 am

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:26 am Storm still seems off to me...

Anyways recon is finally headed towards the storm and will alleviate whatever I think I'm seeing.

Fwiw both hurricane models had a fairly decent shift up the coast being this close to landfall. HWRF shows a reformation like the GFS.

It's possible we see a jump east later today especially if convection fails to fire on the western side of the storm. Some models are picking up on that like you mentioned.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am

When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:50 am

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?

The GFS & ECMWF are showing landfall around 5-10pm this afternoon. The ECMWF is a little further west but slower overall while the GFS shows landfall across Matagorda Bay. Based on the latest radar data I would probably aim for closer to the 10pm timeframe. If we see another center relocation that could add change things some

Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:50 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:48 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:38 am When is he suppose to make landfall? Sometime this evening right?
Last I saw was around 7 AM if it goes to Matagorda Bay.

Center relocation has moved up landfall by several hours.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:00 am

I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself.

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am

my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:04 am

snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..

Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:06 am

Andrew wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:04 am
snowman65 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:01 am my daughter is in galveston in an apartment. just moved in last month. advice on what she should be preparing for? her classes have not been cancelled yet...kinda dumb..
Tropical storm force winds later this evening into the overnight hours with gusts possibly reaching hurricane status. Flooding will also be an issue but should clear up by Tuesday afternoon.

thanks!

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:18 am

Scott747 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:00 am I know I should wait for recon but I can't help myself.

Either a reformation to the ne is starting to take place and there will be a track adjustment at 10.

Or the current center is having issues and drifting to the e before resuming a heading on the current track and delaying landfall by about 3-6 hrs of current forecast.

Probably just rotating around the broader low and trying to tuck in closer to the convection. Recon should be telling in the next hour or two.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:24 am

06Z ECMWF is a little slower with the turn to the northeast and shows most of the region seeing 5-10 inches

Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:26 am

Channel 13 just reported Nicholas has slowed down to 5mph.

September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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