September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Scott747
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Gradual pressure falls as recon heads towards the area I think where it could be trying to reform or the original circulation is at least being tugged that way towards the stronger convection as Andrew mentioned.

Also a few obs at flight level around 60 kts.
Last edited by Scott747 on Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
Cromagnum
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Nice little counterclockwise loop in progress.

https://twitter.com/spann/status/143738 ... 01382?s=20
txsnowmaker
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Wxman57 says heavy rain out of here (Houston) by 9 am Tuesday, and any slow movement would happen after it moves through here and affect areas well to our east.
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jasons2k
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Shear decapitation
Kingwood36
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Pretty good rain here in freeport had a gust of 50 mph
Last edited by Kingwood36 on Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Scott747
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Well early into the recon mission and Nicholas is a mess. The original center is quite weak and the area to the ne i've been tracking is attempting to build a core. At least with recon in there we will have an idea in an hour or so.
Cromagnum
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10 AM update will be telling. If they can get a new center fix.
Cromagnum
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Looking at Brownsville radar you can see the old CoC (red) and a new circulation (blue). Don't know which one will win.

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don
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Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.Also at this point its looking more likely that metro Houston and surrounding areas along the 59 corridor will receive core rains near the center late tonight/tomorrow morning.So while rainfall amounts may be lower than yesterdays thinking, a majority of the rain looks to fall in a short amount of time in the core of Nicholas.Which will lead to flash flooding.Hopefully the center moves out the area at a decent pace.
Last edited by don on Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kingwood36
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don wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:05 am Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.Also at this point its looking more likely that metro Houston and surrounding areas along the 59 corridor will receive core rains near the center late tonight/tomorrow morning.Hopefully the center moves out the area at a decent pace.
What's it looking like for the Freeport area?
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don
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:16 am
don wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:05 am Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.Also at this point its looking more likely that metro Houston and surrounding areas along the 59 corridor will receive core rains near the center late tonight/tomorrow morning.Hopefully the center moves out the area at a decent pace.
What's it looking like for the Freeport area?
Expect up to 6-12+ inches of rain and possibly hurricane force wind gust since you're right by the coast just to the east of the expected landfall location.You have a higher probability of getting damaging winds than those inland.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:13 am Shear decapitation
Naked swirl prediction stands. The center slowed. It's still oval not circular. Shearing looks work by the hour.

Most of the rain is going to stay offshore. Movement of the storm will remain erratic. It's a real mess. I can't even find an NHC cone. :lol: We'll see cloudy skies up in CLL. Maybe a shower or two.

East of the center IF Nicholas makes landfall will be in for mega rainfall. Then bands east of the center should pound the coast, moving from HOU to Beaumont
Last edited by DoctorMu on Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
davidiowx
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Some of the more veteran weather enthusiasts on S2K think this may try to get to strong Cat 1, potentially low end Cat 2 before it makes landfall.
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don
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Looks like another center reformation to the north is happening just like the GFS showed in its 6Z run.Getting some pretty heavy rain here now, heavier than I expected this early.
BlueJay
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 am Looking at Brownsville radar you can see the old CoC (red) and a new circulation (blue). Don't know which one will win.

Image

I hope this isn't a really stupid question, but could there be 2 storms? :oops:
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DoctorMu
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I'm not sure about Nicholas ever creating a small, tight core and holding it. It's been a hybrid trough/tropical system since it began. The "center" has simply been moving up and down an oval area. And now Nick must fear the shear.
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oval.Mon.jpg
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DoctorMu
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BlueJay wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:47 am
Cromagnum wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 am Looking at Brownsville radar you can see the old CoC (red) and a new circulation (blue). Don't know which one will win.

Image

I hope this isn't a really stupid question, but could there be 2 storms? :oops:
There aren't. The center is just long and flip-flopping it's CoC "location."
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DoctorMu
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"Sea breeze" of light showers moving in in front of Nicholas. We could see some rain this afternoon. Just enough to avoid dragging the hose around this week, thank you!
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srainhoutx
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along
with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that
Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes
since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern
dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears
to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi
north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a
pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center,
while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to
upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously
mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going
to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas'
northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center
is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data.
The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb
flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent
surface winds.

The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and
ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core
erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good
agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally
well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward
reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory
track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model
envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.

Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted,
recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should
reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that
westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas.
However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level
shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which
is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus
reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind
shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall
as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It
is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before
landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of
the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after
landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly
shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in
degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a
remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized
metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass by late afternoon through tonight.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of south Texas into the afternoon.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS...
...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 96.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended from San Luis Pass to
Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northeastward to San Luis
Pass, Texas.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Sabine
Pass.

The Storm Surge Watch from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin
Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
* Corpus Christi Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 96.8
West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore of the
coast of south Texas this morning and move onshore along the coast
of south or central Texas late this afternoon or this evening.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast today, and Nicholas could reach the
northwest Gulf coast as a hurricane. Weakening is anticipated on
Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus
Christi, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph
(65 km/h).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the aircraft is
1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages

RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the
middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding
impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas
Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX

Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall
of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly
urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential
for isolated minor to moderate river flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions
will spread northward within the warning area through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
afternoon or this evening.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and
tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting
portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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