September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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10 mb drop in pressure for Nick. Pre-landing ramp up.

988 mb

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
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srainhoutx
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Mesoscale Discussion 1740
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

Areas affected...Parts of the middle Texas coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140023Z - 140230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell structures capable of producing tornadoes may
approach a small portion of middle Texas coastal areas east of
Palacios for a period this evening, but the risk for tornadoes
across and inland of mid and upper Texas coastal areas appears
rather low through tonight.

DISCUSSION...As Tropical Storm Nicholas slowly approaches the
Matagorda Bay vicinity, numerous cells with embedded mesocyclones
have been evident offshore, within a broad area of convection and
bands north-northeast through east of the circulation center. This
is within the sector of strongest southerly to south-southeasterly
low-level flow, which is contributing to large clockwise curved
low-level hodographs, and has supported the advection of mid/upper
70s surface dew points in at least a narrow corridor as far
northwest as the Brazos 451 Oil Platform.

There appears at least some potential that this environment could
advect into immediate coastal areas east of Palacios during the next
few hours, with a window of opportunity for a supercell structure
capable of producing a tornado or two. Otherwise, it appears that
environmental conditions supportive of tornadoes will generally
remain offshore through the overnight hours. Latest forecast
soundings for upper Texas coastal areas, suggest that relatively
stable boundary-layer conditions will be maintained through
daybreak.

..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/14/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...
Attachments
E_NI65UVcAgdjvM.jpeg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Kingwood36
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Well there went my power...ugh! It's going to be a LONG night!
davidiowx
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He tried, that’s for sure. Whether some consider it a blessing or are irritated because they wanted the deluge, it’s likely going to be a non event for many within our CWA, except for immediate coastal counties. The flooding rains are possible there and more so to the east of us. Hope all those out in Beaumont/PA into Lake Charles and eastward are spared. We all know they don’t need it.
MH5
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Image

Calm before the storm here in the heights? Either way, was treated with a great sunset and a full rainbow. Sitting at 1.9” of rain for the day here.
davidiowx
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Very nice MH5! It’s a beautiful evening here in Richmond as well, no rainbow. It sure is orange outside though. I’ll take the little rain and cool winds. Bring on winter again! :geek:
davidiowx
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Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:54 pm Well there went my power...ugh! It's going to be a LONG night!
I always think you’re in Kingwood ha! Not surprising down in Angleton, it’s windy, no doubt. Hopefully they get it back up and running quick.
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Texaspirate11
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Dont rainbows come after the storm? Wait this is wacky nicholas
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Katdaddy
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So far 3.20” and some gusty winds in W League City. Currently a steady rain and a light breeze which feels like the calm before the storm.
Kingwood36
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davidiowx wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:04 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:54 pm Well there went my power...ugh! It's going to be a LONG night!
I always think you’re in Kingwood ha! Not surprising down in Angleton, it’s windy, no doubt. Hopefully they get it back up and running quick.
Ya, I gotta change my username lol
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