September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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Rip76
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Andrew wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:10 am
Rip76 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:56 am This is much worse than I thought it would be.
A bunch of my coworkers in SE Harris county have lost power. Winds are very impressive for this system.
It’s crazy. I didn’t think they’d be this impressive.
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Rip76 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:24 am
Andrew wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:10 am
Rip76 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:56 am This is much worse than I thought it would be.
A bunch of my coworkers in SE Harris county have lost power. Winds are very impressive for this system.
It’s crazy. I didn’t think they’d be this impressive.
That was something I was concerned about once the flooding risk (for Houston) diminished. A bunch of the models was showing wind gusts up to 60-70mph reaching Houston. That flare-up right before landfall did not help the coast at all.
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Andrew wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:53 am
Rip76 wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:24 am
Andrew wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 4:10 am

A bunch of my coworkers in SE Harris county have lost power. Winds are very impressive for this system.
It’s crazy. I didn’t think they’d be this impressive.
That was something I was concerned about once the flooding risk (for Houston) diminished. A bunch of the models was showing wind gusts up to 60-70mph reaching Houston. That flare-up right before landfall did not help the coast at all.
Core of the stronger winds, some heavier rain rates now moving into the southern Houston Metro. Conditions should worsen a bit more north of I-10 (particularly east of I-45) over the next hour.
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Ughhhhhh
Andrew
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winds have calmed quite a bit here at home north of the heights. We had wind gusts reach the 50s and 60s with a lot of twigs and limbs scattered around the yard. Over 400K without power across the region
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Kingwood36
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Sitting here in the dark.. thinking what could of became of Nicholas if that shear didn't (kinda) stop it. We would be waking up to massive destruction. A cat 3 or 4 probably..ppl who wish these storms to come here and just crazy..even a low end cat 1 causes problems. I hope everybody is safe and can assist the damages left by nick
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Surprised by the winds here by Cypresswood and 45 it is howling out there!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 141142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Trends continue to hold with dominating MVFR conditions as
Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to move across SE Texas. Brief
IFR conditions will remain possible underneath portions of the
main rain band with heavier rain. Winds will continue to gradually
decrease throughout the day as Nicholas weakens and moves off to
the east. All sites will have northerly to northeasterly winds by
the afternoon hours. Included prevailing rain showers for all
sites except CLL and LBX as rain has come to an end or is not
expected to reach the site. VCSH wording for all sites going into
the afternoon as coverage decreases. Overnight, models are hinting
at a round of IFR ceilings for the CXO and UTS. This cloud deck
will be on the doorstep of IAH, so left them and sites south at
MVFR. A better day is on the horizon for Wednesday as VFR
conditions are set to return in the midmorning hours.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 444 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday]...
Center of what is now TS Nicholas situated over Brazoria Co
should move northeast cross the Houston metro area and eventually
into east Tx later today. Very impressive wind gusts in the 40-68
mph range overnight across southern parts of the CWA. Though
gradual weakening is anticipated through the day, the Houston
metro area will continue to see elevated 30-50mph gusts this
morning. Still breezy thru the afternoon, but lessening with time
as the system weakens.

Have pared down the Flash Flood Watch back - now just includes
the coastal counties from Brazoria eastward + Liberty. Also kept
coastal Harris in there as surge in the Bay is limiting effective
freshwater drainage and may see some backups with heavy downpours.

Radar/satellite trends indicate we may be able to lower POPs further
later in the day on the backside of the system. Left a small mix
of the slower guidance blended into the short term fcst in case
the unexpected happens, but the Hires & GFS more progressive trends
have proven to be winners in terms of the more consistent forward
motion.

So, overall drier & less windy wx later today-Wed, with the potential
for some scattered (& less intense) backside precip banding
during the day with heating. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
The remains of TS Nicholas should be over LA and SETX should have
drier northerly and northeasterly winds pushing out into the Gulf
with a feeder band trailing back across the coastal waters. Rain
chances should be low on Thursday - mainly just a slight chance in
the easternmost counties. Warmer temperatures should be on tap in
the western areas. Pooled moisture (PW 2.2-2.3") over the Gulf
starts expanding back north as heights fall with a s/w over OK and
deeper trough moves into the PAC-NW. Southerly flow returns on
Saturday across the region bringing warmer overnight temperatures
and increasing rain chances across the southern areas as storms
trend back toward a more diurnal pattern. Rain chances increase
further with scattered to numerous storms on Sunday as the deep
moisture settles in across the region and s/w lifts from the west
southwest bringing some additional lift to the area. Temperatures
on Sunday are a challenge as morning/after storms could cut off
the heating so have kept temperatures in the upper 80s to around
90. These could be off by 3 to 5 degrees depending on coverage of
storms/clouds. The aforementioned PAC-NW trough will be deepening
across the 4 Corners region and bringing a cold front late
Tuesday. This puts Monday into the situation that the area could
be more capped but still capable of plenty of showers and possibly
some thunderstorms especially across the southern half of the
area. As the front arrives late Tuesday/Wednesday we should get
some cooler temperatures and drier air into the area. It is
September and we have had these teaser cold front pop up in the
forecast in years past and they don`t materialize as expected so
check back Friday for more information and perhaps confidence will
be higher concerning the front making it here. 45

&&

.MARINE...
- Winds below TS force in Matagorda Bay area & water levels have
receded from peaks. Will transition to SCA`s there for gusty offshore
flow and replace SS Warning w/ a Coastal Flood Advisory for any
remnant problem areas on the backside of the peninsula. Still
some gusts to 35kt early this morning. Anticipate sustained wind
<20kt later this afternoon.

- Galveston Bay still has sustained 35g50kt. Gradual improvement
is expected lated this morning and anticipate sustained winds
below 30kt early-mid afternoon. Still gusty and plenty dangerous
for most vessels. Should see sustained nw winds <20kt later
this evening.

- We lost the seas at the nearshore buoy 42035, but suspect
they`re in the 10-15 ft range. The bouy 60 nm offshore Freeport
is at 12 ft. Gradual decline is anticipated thru the day and
eventually fall below 6ft around midnight.

- Favorable marine conditions for recovery efforts & commerce anticipated
Wednesday and the following several days.

47

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
San Bernard at Old Ocean will probably go into minor flood and Clear
Creek will be close. Will monitor these and other coastal
watersheds for drainage responses...but overall can`t complain too
much as things could`ve been much worse considering what could
have been if the track/speed would`ve been different. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 84 70 86 71 90 / 30 30 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 79 71 84 71 88 / 70 40 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 83 75 85 77 86 / 60 50 40 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Wharton.

Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones:
Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Northern
Liberty...Southern Liberty.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
redneckweather
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I think people are surprised by the winds because a certain met said the Houston area probably wouldn't even see tropical storm gusts. Most people went with that. I'm near Lake Conroe Dam and have been getting tropical storm gusts since 5:30am and still ongoing. I would definitely stick with the NHC forecasts with a tropical system, especially within the 48hr window.
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tireman4
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redneckweather wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:40 am I think people are surprised by the winds because a certain met said the Houston area probably wouldn't even see tropical storm gusts. Most people went with that. I'm near Lake Conroe Dam and have been getting tropical storm gusts since 5:30am and still ongoing. I would definitely stick with the NHC forecasts with a tropical system, especially within the 48hr window.
That would be the wisest choice, in IHMO.
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redneckweather wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:40 am I think people are surprised by the winds because a certain met said the Houston area probably wouldn't even see tropical storm gusts. Most people went with that. I'm near Lake Conroe Dam and have been getting tropical storm gusts since 5:30am and still ongoing. I would definitely stick with the NHC forecasts with a tropical system, especially within the 48hr window.
Who said that? I also think people underestimate what a sustained 25-35 mph wind actually feels like.
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srainhoutx
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Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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The storm had a decent low pressure. Not surprised by the winds or to see the windfield expand after landfall.

One thing that is very common in a cyclone is for the power of the winds to surprise people when they actually experience core winds. True, actual hurricane force gusts are a lot stronger than what most people have in their heads.

I need to re-read the overnight posts. I went to bed before landfall…
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don
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don wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:05 am Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.
Not to toot my own horn. But I was concerned about this happening as models were hinting at the core tightening near landfall. Thankfully I didn't lose power but sorry for those that have.
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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:56 am Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?
Yes I’d like to know too. I was working yesterday so I didn’t read hardly anything on S2K for Nicholas…
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It was a few meteorologists. As far as that one goes I listen but know he’s way better with winter 😂😂
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This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing. :lol: ;)
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 8:56 am Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?
He did make that claim. :)
Cromagnum
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Turn on the news and of course we have folks driving around to report on how things fared in Katy. Why don't yall head about 50 miles southeast? It's so silly.
Cromagnum
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Shear saved our butts for sure. This would have been a really bad event otherwise. Good trial run for the inevitable real deal that will eventually come some day.
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