September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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vci_guy2003
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by vci_guy2003 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:52 am

Does anyone have the long term on the system just off of Africa? I saw somewhere that it's projected to be a major just north of the islands in about a week.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by tireman4 » Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:57 am

All things considered ( and I am not downplaying the bumpy ride my hometown of Santa Fe and others down south had), we were fortunate. Then wind shear of 10-20 kts sure saved us more headache. He was trying to ramp up quickly and that shear saved us ( if save is the correct word). The Hurricane season is not over, so do not let your guard down. Make sure your kits are stocked and your plans are still in place.

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sambucol
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by sambucol » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:03 am

vci_guy2003 wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:52 am
Does anyone have the long term on the system just off of Africa? I saw somewhere that it's projected to be a major just north of the islands in about a week.
I’m watching that one also.

TexasBreeze
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by TexasBreeze » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:07 am

The 2 big models show that wave dissipating around or north of the islands as of the 0 and 6z runs. Still way early in the game for the waves though and lots can and will change!

AtascocitaWX
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by AtascocitaWX » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:24 am

TexasBreeze wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:27 am
The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
yep it was said it the GFS was performing poorly and that teh Euro had the better handle on the storm. GFS has been the better model this year, Euro seems off.

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djmike
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by djmike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:26 am

Im surprised our wind gusts here in Beaumont if the CoC is still near Houston. Local mets are showing 40mph gusts in some areas. Power is back on but keeps popping off every so often so Im sure it will eventually go out for good. So thankful the floods didnt happen. I was getting really concerned for the Golden Triangle as we are the Mecca for Extreme flooding last few storms. Thank you shear!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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don
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by don » Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:50 am

AtascocitaWX wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:24 am
TexasBreeze wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:27 am
The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...
yep it was said it the GFS was performing poorly and that teh Euro had the better handle on the storm. GFS has been the better model this year, Euro seems off.
While I do agree the GFS has been better than the Euro this year.Sometimes there tends to by a little hyperbole when it come to talking about how good or bad a particular model performed.The reality is that most of the time things end up somewhere in the middle when it comes to global model performance.The EURO did a better job when it came to detecting that we would get TC genesis in the first place.While at the same time the GFS was showing just a wave moving inland.On the other hand in the shorter range the GFS did a better job in regards to the track and strength of Nicholas.As the EURO was too far west and weak with Nicholas.

But it really isn't a case of one model wins and the other model loses,they both had pros and cons during the storm.Which is usually the case 90% of the time.

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djmike
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by djmike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:01 am

Maybe a stupid question, but…is it possible Nicholas could strengthen a bit or maintain current status going near galveston bay? Just curious .
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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don
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by don » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:05 am

djmike wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:01 am
Maybe a stupid question, but…is it possible Nicholas could strengthen a bit or maintain current status going near galveston bay? Just curious .
No the circulation is too disrupted at this point from land interaction and wind shear for it to restrengthen.Its not a stupid question though,while rare some storms have strengthen over inland bodies of water such as swamplands and lakes.

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djmike
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by djmike » Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:14 am

don wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:05 am
djmike wrote:
Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:01 am
Maybe a stupid question, but…is it possible Nicholas could strengthen a bit or maintain current status going near galveston bay? Just curious .
No the circulation is too disrupted at this point from land interaction and wind shear for it to restrengthen.Its not a stupid question though,while rare some storms have strengthen over inland bodies of water such as swamplands and lakes.
Thanks for answering. Just curious. Ive heard about over swamplands and saw the Bay is awfully close to the center. Thanks for answering.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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