September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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redneckweather
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by redneckweather » Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:39 am

The GFS has been showing a decent front around the 22nd as does the crazy Canadian. Looks like the Euro is showing it as well.

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sambucol
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by sambucol » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:11 am

redneckweather wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 6:39 am
The GFS has been showing a decent front around the 22nd as does the crazy Canadian. Looks like the Euro is showing it as well.
How decent? What kind temps? I’m ready for cooler weather!

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Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Texaspirate11 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 7:19 am

I'm ready for a real cold front to shut our hurricane season down
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Cpv17
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:11 am

If a front is modeled over 5 days out, I wouldn’t really believe it. Get within that 5 day window then maybe.

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by jasons2k » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:17 am

The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.

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snowman65
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by snowman65 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:41 am

Always remember, and never forget...the first 3-4 fronts that models show each year never make it this far....so thetre's that...

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:55 am

jasons2k wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:17 am
The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.
Yeah, Nick's CoC is spinning between LC and Lafayette. We're still getting backside clouds and drizzle. Fine by me in mid September! Three sectors of our sprinkler system are back, but 2 are still down. I need watering season to be over...like now. Brown patch season awaits!

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jasons2k
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by jasons2k » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:09 am

I need a few days of dry weather to get plaster/pebble in. That’s all. Gonna be tricky.

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tireman4
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by tireman4 » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:15 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
505 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Center of Nicholas near the Sabine river north of Orange TX with
deep convection sheared off to the east and northeast. Across SETX
northerly flow in place with extensive cloud cover. Temperatures in
the lower 70s this morning. Some patchy light drizzle and fog will
be possible this morning. As we warm up today rain chances will
develop over the eastern areas where slightly deeper moisture and
some convergence will linger though offset by capping. Rain chances
look slim. Some breaks in the clouds can be expected mainly in the
afternoon and over the west. The center of Nicholas was forecast to
mosey very slowly east and then turn north although quite a few of
the short term guidance packages is at odds with this and take it
only slightly further east then stall and either wobble it
south/southwest/east/northeast. Admittedly the main area of
convection is expected to be east and northeast of the center for
today. With the upper trough having swept by to the north already it
may well be cutoff and just meander about on Thursday. So expecting
quiet weather across the region tonight with a return of lower cloud
decks. Thursday again with heating the possibility of some showers
beneath the cap. Again the greater chances should be over the
eastern 2/3rds of the region and fairly slim chances at that.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Drier air on the backside of the remnants of Nicholas continues to
hang out over the area through at least Friday night. This is when
surface high pressure develops over the eastern Gulf which brings a
return to onshore flow and turns the PW faucet (PW values 1.8"-2.0")
back on, so to speak. GFS/ECMWF are in agreement on moisture return
late Friday/early Saturday while the Canadian/NAM are much slower
(Sunday). Leaned towards the former pair of models, so PoPs become
noticeably higher over the weekend. Especially on Sunday where
there`s higher confidence on sufficient moisture in place to drive
diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms. This is also coincident with
a weak upper-level trough which grants us VIP access to numerous
shortwaves. Higher amounts of moisture (PW values 2.1"-2.3")
remain offshore, so rain showers will remain possible even in the
overnight hours with help from PVA. Our typical pattern of
showers/thunderstorms expanding northward throughout the day along
the seabreeze will continue into next week. Seasonal temperatures
will persist throughout the forecast period with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and overnight temperatures
in the 60s/70s.

Gonna go ahead and use the discussion about temperatures into a
segue to discuss everyone`s favorite two words after experiencing a
summer in Houston...."cold front". Early next week, global models
are in consensus of a deep upper-level trough swinging down into the
Western U.S. and develops a cutoff low over the Central Plains by
midweek. The question that remains to be answered is if this
trough is deep enough to drive a cold front down into SE Texas.
And the survey says.......we`re still uncertain, but there are at
least a couple of models (ECMWF/Canadian) that push a cold front
in towards the end of next week so don`t put a red "X" on the
board just yet. The GFS pushes a front in as well, but it`s
weaker and less progressive. It is definitely too early to set
this in stone, especially with successive model runs flipping back
and forward on the front actually making it here. All that being
said, climatologically speaking we usually get our first cold
front in mid-to-late September and the NBM has a sizable spread in
the lower quartile MinT values at the end of next week. Just
sayin`!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Very minor changes planned. MVFR/IFR this morning with some rises in
CIGS 15-20z. VCSH for UTS and possibly CXO. MVFR this afternoon
mixed with at least a few hours of VFR possible though confidence on
how far east the erosion of the lower decks occurs is low. Low CIGS
return tonight.
45

&&

.MARINE...

The remnants of Nicholas continues to slowly move eastward leaving
moderate northerly to northwesterly winds in its wake. Winds will
gradually decrease throughout the day and fall below the caution
advisory by the late afternoon hours. Wave heights will steadily
decrease throughout the day as well with seas becomes 2 to 3 feet
by tonight. Going into the weekend, high pressure will develop
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and return light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow to the waters. The resulting increased
moisture brings an increase in rain chances extending into next
week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 89 69 88 70 93 / 10 0 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 80 71 87 71 91 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 75 86 79 88 / 20 20 20 20 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

&&

$$

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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by TexasBreeze » Wed Sep 15, 2021 10:57 am

jasons2k wrote:
Wed Sep 15, 2021 9:17 am
The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.
The GFS has been shoving the remnant back towards Texas increasing rain chances by Friday.

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