September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[DoctorMu]

The remnants of Nicholas look cutoff to me. That should mean higher rain chances for us as the high to the east builds back in.

The GFS has been shoving the remnant back towards Texas increasing rain chances by Friday.

Not a surprise. Nick came for the X-mas cookies and won't leave!

[DoctorMu]

The sun can stay away for all of this week! This cloudy and cool weather rocks!!

Yeah, it looks and feels with the NE breeze a bit more like football weather!

[Cpv17]

I'm good for about a day's worth and then ready to move on.

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

[Cpv17]

The sun can stay away for all of this week! This cloudy and cool weather rocks!!

Yeah, it looks and feels with the NE breeze a bit more like football weather!

Unfortunately, the sun came out for a good bit this afternoon at work. I actually started sweating again

[Stratton20]

I used to live in Norway, the sun practically never came out their, no matter what season it was, thats why im loving this cooler and cloudy weather

[jasons2k]

That’s because of where you’ve lived most of your life..The Sunshine State. It’s just what you’ve come accustomed to.

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

Florida (Freeze of '83), then Savannah, GA (Hurricanes Kate & Bob, Freeze of '85 at 3 degrees), then Plano (1989&1990 freezes), Birmingham (1993 Superstorm with 16"), Lubbock (1997 High Plains Super-Outbreak), Dallas, and then back and forth between here and there before staying here in 2005. We do spend a lot of time in Florida as we have a place down there to visit whenever time allows us to go. Not as much as I would like.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 160957
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
457 AM CDT Thu Sep 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday Night]...

Post tropical Nicholas wobbling around near the LA coast in the
vicinity of Marsh Island. Circulation of Nicholas still impacting
SETX with light N/NE winds and bringing in stratus deck from the
east and will continue wrap around through the areas east of the I-
45 corridor and probably down over the coastal areas southwest of
the Metro. The cloud deck should erode through the late
morning/early afternoon hours with temperatures quickly responding
and climbing into the 86-91 degree range inland. Coastal areas
should still reach the mid 80s. Rain chances still linger in the
east albeit slim with sprinkles and light showers beneath the cap.
Winds decouple in the evening and skies clear out though some cirrus
may speckle the area. Patchy fog will be possible toward morning
Friday near sunrise but at this point probably at the rural sites
mainly north of the I-10 corridor. On Friday the north winds relax
and a seabreeze should develop and spread inland late afternoon with
not only a moderate expanse of CU field but also some cirrus as
upper low slips int the north-central portions of TX. Rain chances
should still be low over the east even with the approach of the
upper disturbance. Loss of heating in the evening should curtail the
convective development but as upper low meanders closer late in the
evening then early Saturday morning rain chances should ramp up as
the cooling aloft and low level convergence increases. Threat for
thunderstorms near the coast should be on the increase.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The combination of wraparound moisture from the remnants of Nicholas
and a weak upper-level low will lead to steady PoPs over the
weekend. These will be of our usual variety with
showers/thunderstorms along the seabreeze, but coverage should be
slightly higher east of I-45 and offshore where there is more
moisture availability. The deeper moisture associated with the
remnants of Nicholas that remains in the northern Gulf will slowly
ease back in early next week with the advent of surface high
pressure developing in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow develops
leading to moisture advection and increasing PW values (1.8"-2.2")
for at least the southern half of the CWA. There is a little
uncertainty on this though since all three of the global models
offer different solutions (ECMWF doesn`t bring in the deep moisture
at all). Ended up only using "likely" PoPs for the Gulf waters since
the moisture should at least make it to the coastline. Uncertainty
with PoPs goes into next week as a cold front attempts to push
through SE Texas. Temperatures prior to this will be right around
normal with highs in the uppers 80s/low 90s and lows in the 70s.

Oh FROPA, FROPA! Wherefore art thou, FROPA? That is the magic
question isn`t it. Well...there is increasing confidence that a cold
front will make its way into SE Texas midweek. Global models are in
consensus that the cold front will be on the doorstep of our
northern counties on Wednesday morning, but things diverge a little
bit after that. The upper-level trough driving the cold front is
much deeper on the 00z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian, thus the cold
front pushes through. On the 00z GFS, a cutoff low develops over the
Northern Plains which keeps the trough from deepening far enough
south to push the front all the way through or washes it out as it
passes through. There is consistency though that with moisture out
ahead of the front, the convergence along the frontal boundary will
lead to showers/thunderstorms as it pushes in. After Wednesday
afternoon, PoPs are uncertain since the ECMWF/Canadian dry us out
following FROPA, while the GFS leaves lingering moisture over the
area as the front washes out. Going with 20% PoPs for now through
Thursday. Did a little wishcasting on Wednesday night and Thursday
night and went a few degrees below guidance to suggest that I`m
onboard with the front making it through. There won`t be significant
cold air behind the front, but I think we could at least see low 60s
overnight for our northern counties. Speaking things into existence
works right?

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR/IFR ST deck expanding west across the area this morning should
linger into the 14-16z timeframe before rising and scattering out.
Some brief patchy fog also possible at the outlying TAF sights. VFR
at most sites by 18z or earlier. The threat for fog returns after
06z across the northern sites with favorable radiational cooling
profile.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Light northerly winds will continue to prevail through the end of
the week before becoming southeasterly as high pressure builds
in the eastern Gulf. Onshore flow and isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday through next week
as Gulf moisture increases. Onshore flow becomes increasingly
moderate over the weekend leading to a slight rise in wave heights
(increasing to 3-4 feet) going into early next week.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 90 72 93 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 30
Houston (IAH) 86 72 91 74 91 / 20 10 20 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 88 79 87 / 20 10 20 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[txbear]

I wish. Only 10 of my 47 years (not counting vacations & summers). Spent many a long, gray, drizzly winter up in the DFW Metroplex once we moved to Texas.

Where all have you lived? I’ve only lived in southeast TX my entire life so this is pretty much all I know. I’ve yet to even go to Florida lol

Florida (Freeze of '83), then Savannah, GA (Hurricanes Kate & Bob, Freeze of '85 at 3 degrees), then Plano (1989&1990 freezes), Birmingham (1993 Superstorm with 16"), Lubbock (1997 High Plains Super-Outbreak), Dallas, and then back and forth between here and there before staying here in 2005. We do spend a lot of time in Florida as we have a place down there to visit whenever time allows us to go. Not as much as I would like.

I remember the 1997 tornado season. Jarrell was that year then the panhandle went bananas on down into the Big Country and Concho Valley. The sirens got a bit of a workout.

[Kingwood36]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

[DoctorMu]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!

[Kingwood36]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!

We can dream can't we lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

TV guys are saying that cold front will make here next Wednesday

Seeing the front on GFS, Euro, and Canadian. Canadian brings even cooler air than GFS. Low Thursday of 49°F in CLL area. Will believe that when it happens!

My heart fluttered.

[jasons2k]

Pebble sheen is going-in as I type. I see some wraparound misty garbage I am keeping my eye on. Just need to stay dry a few hours.

We had a shower here earlier too. I thought things were supposed to dry out faster today and ceilings were gonna lift, at least for awhile.

[Cpv17]

Don’t really see any exciting weather on the horizon anytime soon. Might get a front in 5 or 6 days so it should at least feel better. Hopefully these fronts don’t get me sick. Sometimes the dry air and change of weather gets to me.

[jasons2k]

Sunshine!! Yes!! Pool gets filled today! Happy Friday everyone!

[redneckweather]

Yep, front is still slated for mid next week! Come on with it.

[Stratton20]

I bet this “front” is going to be a bust lol

[DoctorMu]

We'll see a front to drop the dewpoint down on Wednesday. Appears to be potential for rain ahead of the front on Tuesday.

[DoctorMu]

FXUS64 KHGX 171137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Pesky MVFR ceilings and patchy fog early this morning should
dissipate shortly after sunrise. Afterwards, VFR conditions will
prevail through the TAF period. Light and variable southeast
winds today will slowly switch to northerly winds overnight.
Chance for patchy fog again overnight due to clear skies, light
winds, and moist soils.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 510 AM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

Cloud cover should clear out to partly cloudy skies by this
afternoon as an approaching mid level low pushes further south
towards the coast. Forecast soundings for our area show a stout 850
mb cap and PW air below 1.6", suppressing our rain chances to 10% or
less for the day. Overnight tomorrow, southeast winds return,
helping to advect some low level moisture across our region which
will slowly erode the 850 mb cap. With a mid level low parked
overhead acting as a weak forcing mechanism, rain chances are
expected to reach 40-50% tomorrow in the late afternoon coinciding
with peak daytime heating before quickly dissipating around sunset.

Regarding temperatures, less sky cover today and tomorrow will allow
daytime highs to reach the low 90s inland and the upper 80s along
the coast. Overnight lows will reach the lower 70s inland and upper
70s along the coast. KBL


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday morning the upper low will be overhead with moisture pooled
over the area leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms
though the upper levels are relatively warm instability below
should be sufficient and low level focus may be tied to the
seabreeze. As the upper low fills and becomes a trough rain
chances shift southeastward toward the coast on Monday. A cold
front will be moving through North Texas Tuesday afternoon and
will become the focus for storms along with the seabreeze.
Timing/orientation of the front is still somewhat in
question...ECMWF/GFS differences are apparent and for now have
trended toward the GFS as it has remained consistent. The front
should move through SETX Wednesday and push well out offshore
Wednesday night. PW of around 2" along the frontal boundary with
little to no cap and CAPE of 1500-2000j/kg will fuel scattered
storms and may even end up with a fairly solid line of storms. Dry
air should flow in across the region in the wake of the front.
Temperatures should fall from near normal with highs falling into
the lower to mid 80s Thursday and Friday, a little warmer in the
west but cloud cover could hamper that. The profiles in the wake
of the front are dry and capped so other than some cloudy don`t
expect much in the way of rain Wednesday night through Friday. The
most notable will be the overnight lows which should fall into
the upper 50s to mid 60s with the drier air overhead and weak CAA.
45


.MARINE...
Quiet start with light winds and seas of 1-2 feet. Prior to the
arrival of the cold front onshore winds increasing Sunday continue
through the FROPA. Post-FROPA Wednesday SCEC winds and possibly a
brief period of SCA.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 94 72 93 71 91 / 0 0 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 92 73 91 73 90 / 10 10 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 88 78 88 78 88 / 20 20 40 20 40

[jasons2k]

It’s sad that we have become so accustomed and conditioned to weak sauce around here that the NWS has to actually verbalize this:

“may even end up with a fairly solid line of storms.”