September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Kingwood36
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:36 pm Too bad the nice weather will only be a round for a few days before summer returns, these fronts always tease us
Better then nothing
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jasons2k
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 1:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:36 pm Too bad the nice weather will only be a round for a few days before summer returns, these fronts always tease us
Better then nothing
This is true. It will feel great for awhile and that’s a blessing.

It is still early fall too. The first several fronts aren’t meant to have much staying power anyways.
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tireman4
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:36 pm Too bad the nice weather will only be a round for a few days before summer returns, these fronts always tease us

Like Dan always said, the first one brings in more. It takes the first one to start the ball rolling
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jasons2k
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URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
410 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.Lowering relative humidities and strengthening north winds in
the wake of this evening`s cold front could produce conditions
favorable for a Fire Weather Watch tomorrow (Wednesday).
Conditions will be favorable tomorrow afternoon for any wildfire
to quickly become uncontained...especially with grass fires.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-221100-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FW.A.0001.210922T1500Z-210923T0100Z/
Austin-Brazos-Burleson-Colorado-Grimes-Houston-Madison-Montgomery-
Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
410 PM CDT Tue Sep 21 2021

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
Fire Weather Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday morning
through Wednesday evening.

* AFFECTED COUNTIES... Houston...Trinity...Madison...Walker...
San Jacinto...Polk...Burleson...Brazos...Washington...
Grimes...Montgomery...Colorado...Austin...Waller.

* TIMING...10 AM to 8 PM Tomorrow/Wednesday.

* WIND...North 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

* HUMIDITY...between 20 and 30 percent.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.
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DoctorMu
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Welp. Fire season. Better than Summer season. The DP is going to stay low for awhile.
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djmike
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And by looking at radar, its looking more like a 5% chance of rain during the passage rather than the 60% that was forecasted for me in Beaumont. Oh well, bring on the COOL front! Always welcomed!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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Katdaddy
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Refreshing days ahead and a quiet GOM. A peaceful beginning to Fall 2021.
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jasons2k
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0.13” - all in about 5 minutes.
Cromagnum
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Totally dry front here, but not that I need it after getting nearly 7 inches from Nicholas (and now mosquitoes)
Pas_Bon
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Summer heat, I bid you adieu.

Goodbye. Good riddance. Hallelujah!!
Fall Day is here!
Cpv17
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Rain chances could return by Monday. Next week is looking kinda wet.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.AVIATION...

High pressure building into Texas will bring VFR conditions to
area TAF sites today and tonight. Moderate to strong north winds
will diminish by late afternoon and become light easterly by
tomorrow morning. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021/

UPDATE...

Reissued AFD to correct headlines. Fire Weather Watch no longer in
effect.

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

A cold front has crossed the coast and high pressure will build into
Texas behind the front. Still some cloudiness near the coast but
this should end quickly as subsidence kicks in behind the front.
There will be a period of high clouds this morning but even these
should end as a jet streak exits the region. Fcst soundings show
little in the way of saturation so will go with sunny skies today.
Rapid cooling at 850 mb from 22 C yesterday to 14 C will yield a
significant cool down with MaxT values today reaching the lower and
middle 80`s. It will be dry today with humidity levels falling below
25 percent out west and around 35 percent near the coast. The
combination of low RH and moderate winds will set the stage for
elevated fire weather conditions today. Sustained winds will not
reach fire weather Red Flag criteria but that doesn`t mean conds
won`t be dangerous for fast growing fires, particularly grass fires.
Will issue an SPS to highlight the risk.

Tonight will be blissful if you like cool, crisp autumn nights. Dry
air will stick around, skies will remain clear and winds will
decouple. This will create ideal conditions for radiational cooling
and radiate it will with MinT values falling to near 50 degrees at
local cool spots like KCXO and in the mid/upper 50`s elsewhere.
Tonight looks absolutely wonderful.

Surface high pressure will drift east on Thursday but 850 mb
temperatures don`t show any appreciable warming so will keep MaxT
values similar to today with highs warming into the mid 80`s. A
light onshore wind will return Thursday night and MinT values will
warm a bit from tonight`s values but still remain on the cool side
for this time of year. 43

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure remains overhead on Friday and Saturday. Although
temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday,
dewpoints stay in the 50s and 60s, helping to keep things mild. As
high pressure begins to move out late Saturday/early Sunday,
onshore flow resumes. This will gradually drive temperatures and
humidity up once again with 850mb temperatures reaching 16-18 C
by late Sunday and daytime highs reaching the 90s once again. With
dewpoints crawling back into the 70s south of I-10, muggy weather
will return.

Sunday onwards, global models are in more of an agreeance with
the return of rain chances early next week. Models show a sfc
inverted trough over the Gulf near Brownsville`s coastal waters
migrating north early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough
over the Southwest US will push east and help amplify the
inverted trough over the Gulf by the time it reaches our CWA
sometime late Monday/early Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances return
early next week, but kept them capped at 30-50% for now since
much depends on the timing, intensity, and location of these
synoptic features. Depending on rain chances and cloud cover,
temperatures will be slightly cooler and reach the upper 80s. KBL

MARINE...

In the wake of our latest cold front, strong northerly winds will
persist throughout the day along with building seas. A Small Craft
advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters until this
afternoon, and might need to be extended until this evening for
our 20 to 60 nm waters. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by
Thursday and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with low RH
values amd moderate winds. A Red Flag Warning is issued when
sustained winds exceed 20 mph with RH values below 25 percent.
Sustained north winds will be around 15 mph today with higher gusts.
RH values will fall below 25 percent so the NW half of the area is
close to Red Flag criteria but appears to fall short so will
highlight the fire weather risk with an SPS.

Dew points are progged to fall into the upper 30`s to mid 40`s
across SE TX. With MaxT values approaching the mid 80`s this
afternoon. This will yield RH values below 20 percent over the far
NW zones and below 25 percent over much of the NW half of the
region. The strongest winds today will likely be this morning into
the early afternoon, while the lowest RH values will likely occur
late morning to late afternoon so the two primary fire wx parameters
look a bit out of phase. Rainfall in September over the NW half has
been well below normal with College Station and Huntsville each with
reporting less than a half inch of rain in September. KBDI values
for these locations (north of a Columbus to Navasota to Trinity
line) are between 600-700 which is another indicator of how dry it`s
been. Burn Bans are in effect for Colorado, Madison, Walker and
Waller counties. Use extreme caution if working with flammable
materials today or better yet, wait for a day with lighter winds and
higher humidity before proceeding to burn outdoors. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 55 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 57 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 70 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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22% humidity. Dewpoint of 43°. The mosquitoes have been knocked down for at least this week. Very nice!

Unsettled weather arriving next week. Enjoy for now.
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DoctorMu
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Adios Texas Tropical Season.
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redneckweather
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It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
Iceresistance
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:15 am It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
My house got down to 49°F this morning, 50°F Yesterday Morning
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DoctorMu
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A Chamber of Commerce day with a current temperature of 73°F under crystal blue skies, light breeze, and dewpoint of 47°F.
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Texaspirate11
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Heavenly. Someone bottle this wx!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:15 am It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
54 here in Wharton this morning.
Cpv17
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Looks like rain chances are diminishing for next week..of course.
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