September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[JDsGN]

I think people are surprised by the winds because a certain met said the Houston area probably wouldn't even see tropical storm gusts. Most people went with that. I'm near Lake Conroe Dam and have been getting tropical storm gusts since 5:30am and still ongoing. I would definitely stick with the NHC forecasts with a tropical system, especially within the 48hr window.

Who said that? I also think people underestimate what a sustained 25-35 mph wind actually feels like.

[srainhoutx]

Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?

[jasons2k]

The storm had a decent low pressure. Not surprised by the winds or to see the windfield expand after landfall.

One thing that is very common in a cyclone is for the power of the winds to surprise people when they actually experience core winds. True, actual hurricane force gusts are a lot stronger than what most people have in their heads.

I need to re-read the overnight posts. I went to bed before landfall…

[don]

Nicholas will have a small tight core,expect tropical storm force winds to last for a few hours for areas in the core even inland.As the windfield doesn't look to die down as fast as you normally would expect from a tropical storm or category 1 once making landfall.

Not to toot my own horn. But I was concerned about this happening as models were hinting at the core tightening near landfall. Thankfully I didn't lose power but sorry for those that have.

[jasons2k]

Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?

Yes I’d like to know too. I was working yesterday so I didn’t read hardly anything on S2K for Nicholas…

[Dls2010r]

It was a few meteorologists. As far as that one goes I listen but know he’s way better with winter

[weatherguy425]

This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.

[cperk]

Does this have to do with what a Meteorologist posted on S2k yesterday afternoon?

He did make that claim.

[Cromagnum]

Turn on the news and of course we have folks driving around to report on how things fared in Katy. Why don't yall head about 50 miles southeast? It's so silly.

[Cromagnum]

Shear saved our butts for sure. This would have been a really bad event otherwise. Good trial run for the inevitable real deal that will eventually come some day.

[redneckweather]

This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.

lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.

"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."

[weatherguy425]

This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.

lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.

"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."

I understand what you're saying. I just know that there were many on this forum dismissing the probabilities and, technically, Harris County did not even see sustained tropical-storm force winds. Like some others have echoed - easy to forget how powerful wind can be.

[AtascocitaWX]

Shear saved our butts for sure. This would have been a really bad event otherwise. Good trial run for the inevitable real deal that will eventually come some day.

Yes Shear did save us, it just another example how a storm can intensify quickly in our region. if not for shear this could have easly been a cat 2 or 3.
its still made it to a cat 1 dealing with the conditions it had.

[dp6]

Turn on the news and of course we have folks driving around to report on how things fared in Katy. Why don't yall head about 50 miles southeast? It's so silly.

I'm ticked off at how quick the greedy local TV stations bailed on coverage overnight and now. Other than a brief update, post-midnight when it was coming ashore and peaking on the south and southeast of the metro I could only find online for 2 was streaming vid of someone driving around, 13 had a cam of a light pole with rain, KHOU was running a minute loop of some maps (starting to get stale) and radar. Can't find any live broadcast online now, I guess they pulled the plug after the Harris County judge spoke. I don't have any of their stupid apps, so don't know if they're still live on those with any actual content beyond a few graphics.

[djmike]

Not bad on rainfall for Houston 4-5”/Beaumont 6-7” at all thanks to the wind shear. May be a different story for Louisiana though. ANNNNND…..as I write this a transformer blew and my power is out. Great! Not much rain anymore but the winds are kicking in Beaumont. Stay safe everyone!

[Kingwood36]

I've said it before and I'll say it again....I'd rather have the power go out during winter then summer! It's hot as hell in this house!

[TexasBreeze]

The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...

[DoctorMu]

This is neither here, nor there, but quite a few folks were diminishing the risk. It is always easy to Monday morning quarter-back and I'm not even one who was diminishing.

lol, this isn't being an arm chair quarterback. Yesterday the NHC came out with a good wind forecast for the Houston metro area and put up a Tropical Storm Warning for Harris County and rightfully so. This met also said the NHC was being a bit bullish, maybe just to get peoples attention? Maybe someone can find that one.lol I wouldn't even bring this up but a crap load of people think this met hung the moon so needs to watch the wording IMO.

"Just under an inch of rain here in SW Houston. Looks like Nicholas will make landfall with max winds 50 kts, but average winds lower than that. No TS wind for Houston, maybe not even in gusts. Wouldn't rule out a gust, though."

Yes, that is the purpose of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning. To get people's attention! In an age when the cell phone goes off with a fake warning a few times a day, we're having difficulty recognizing real warnings and potential crises.

[Samantha550]

Not bad on rainfall for Houston 4-5”/Beaumont 6-7” at all thanks to the wind shear. May be a different story for Louisiana though. ANNNNND…..as I write this a transformer blew and my power is out. Great! Not much rain anymore but the winds are kicking in Beaumont. Stay safe everyone!
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Off of Delaware and I heard it blow!

[tireman4]

The GFS sure had this system covered! Some didn't like its modeling for it, but even covered the reformations! One other model was not good at all for it, especially for the rain forecast! Maybe some people don't like posting a forecast or opinion about it, because of the risk of being called out for a wrong forecast. Can't get it right all the time! NHC is amazing at what they do for sure...

I agree. This model has COME a long way since Ike.