September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[weatherguy425]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

[captainbarbossa19]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

That sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.

[weatherguy425]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week

And ensemble guidance (more important at this stage) all over the place; Mexico to Florida. A lot to iron out over the next seven to ten days.

That sounds a lot like the precursor to the storm we are watching right now. I could be wrong, but I just do not think that the season is over for Texas yet.

Risk really doesn’t start lessening (historically) until October.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 plus the fact that IDA stayed in the central gulf means the western GOM has a lot of untapped upper oceanic heat energy, so if whatever may happen next week,*IF*it tracks into our part of the Gulf, if the shear is low we could have a problem

[captainbarbossa19]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

[Cpv17]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

I was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.

[ajurcat]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

Y'all just stop this nonsense! We have a bay house on Carancahua Bay and would love to have the house stay there! Really stressed hearing Port Alto on the news about a possible Ida landfall. But, in reality, we know the possibilities. Praying that Texas stays safe this year and years to come

[captainbarbossa19]

The 18z GEFS has a lot more support for another Gulf system originating from the SW Caribbean. It starts forming in a few days.

I was literally just about to post that lol you beat me to it.

Lol. I guess I need to take a break from model watching, but I was really expecting Ida to originally be a Texas storm. I am glad it was not, but now my alarm bells are going off so I am constantly looking for new threats. Haha

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 and too think IDA started off as a very weak tropical wave, man we still got another month before we are safe , definitely concerned that IDA wont be the last major storm threat to the GOM

[Kingwood36]

Well our next potential system is marked and has a 20% chance through the next 5 days

[don]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in the southern
Caribbean Sea over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear to be favorable for some slow development by the end of the
week, as long as the system remains over water. This system is
expected to move gradually west-northwestward or northwestward at 5
to 10 mph over the western Caribbean Sea close to the east coast of
Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[redneckweather]

As of now, not much showing up in the models with this system thankfully. Almost time to start looking for that first cool front.

[Stratton20]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

[srainhoutx]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

Not so sure about having to wait 30 days...

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx thats over 9 days out, im taking that with a grain of salt IMO, im not buying it until it shows up inside the 7 day range

Kind of like that tropical mischief threat...

[tireman4]

redneckweather we will see, sometimes models dont pick up on systems until they are beginning to form, this has a decently favorable environment to work with so i wouldnt be shocked if this develops, unfortunately we will have to wait anothwr 30 days at least for a “fall” front

Not so sure about having to wait 30 days...

Bring it, oh Long Range Forecaster. I say..woo hoo

[Cpv17]

I just want some rain. Don’t really care about fronts or tc’s too much. Just give me some heavy rainstorms and I’m happy lol

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx hey im just saying we have seen many times that the models show a good cold front in the long range, and then it ends up not happening, thats why im not buying into it yet

[Kingwood36]

Bring it!