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September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Posted: Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:02 am
by tireman4
The first month of meteorological fall ( September 1) as well as the Fall Equinox. What will be in store for us this year?

Re: September 2021

Posted: Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:30 pm
by captainbarbossa19
tireman4 wrote: Mon Aug 16, 2021 10:02 am The first month of meteorological fall ( September 1) as well as the Fall Equinox. What will be in store for us this year?
Hopefully cooler weather and no hurricanes!

Re: September 2021

Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:30 pm
by MontgomeryCoWx
College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy. :)

Re: September 2021

Posted: Wed Aug 18, 2021 9:46 pm
by DoctorMu
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:30 pm College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy. :)
Aggies often talk about next year.

To morph a line from The Blind Side:

"It's next year, Bert."

As one of our high school coaches would say: "The biscuits are on the table. Who is the hungriest?"

Time to run the table. Get vaccinated. Test negative. Let's go!

...and bring on some cool, real Fall air!

Re: September 2021

Posted: Fri Aug 27, 2021 12:39 pm
by weatherguy425
There has already been some discussion about this, but I figured it belonged more in this thread.

Most models are indicating an area of low pressure will develop In the southern Caribbean or a Gulf of Honduras next week. From there, likely lifting northward. Of course, guidance is all over the place as to its eventual outcome. Something to watch.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:27 am
by Pas_Bon
Has there been any more model support for this phantom Labor Day storm?

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:50 am
by Stratton20
Pas-Bon yes , 00z CMC and GFS runs both are showing or hinting at more gulf mischief in days 7-8

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:08 am
by redneckweather
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 6:30 pm College Football, first real cold fronts and the start of a frigid end to another less than ideal year dominated by global idiocy. :)


I'll drink to that! One more week till college football and the first cool front on the near horizon. My absolute favorite time of year. Roll Tide!😎

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:27 am
by weatherguy425
Pas_Bon wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 12:27 am Has there been any more model support for this phantom Labor Day storm?
Operational models have shown a system at times as well as some of each model’s ensemble members. In addition, MJO and some other environmental factors are supportive of development.

The question of exactly when and where, though, remains unanswered.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:13 pm
by Stratton20
12z Euro showing a weak tropical wave getting into the gulf next week fwiw

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:28 pm
by weatherguy425
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:13 pm 12z Euro showing a weak tropical wave getting into the gulf next week fwiw
Ensembles ( EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are a bit more excited with development in the extreme western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche late this-coming week.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:34 pm
by Stratton20
weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:44 pm
by weatherguy425
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:34 pm weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on
Water temperatures can be important, but are only part of the equation. Land interaction, dry air entrainment and wind shear can individually destroy a system even with ideal water temperature profiles. We’ll just have to see how/if it sets up.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 4:48 pm
by Stratton20
I agree with that we will see but FWIW the 12z GFS does show a window in the gulf next week with lower shear, so a system could potentially take advantage of that

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 5:32 pm
by Cpv17
Image

Definitely something to keep an eye on here.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:06 pm
by DoctorMu
Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.

Image

Image

Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:53 pm
by captainbarbossa19
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Aug 28, 2021 6:06 pm Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.

Image

Image

Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...
Fun. So if we have a storm, it's going to be miserable outside afterwards. Reminds me of post-Rita.

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 8:47 pm
by sambucol
Would the ridge building back keep any possible tropical system away from Southeast Texas?

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:20 pm
by Stratton20
sambucol its very hard to know that considering what the models are hinting at is late next week, roughly 8 days from now, also very difficult to forecast troughs and ridges beyond that timeframe as well

Re: September 2021

Posted: Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:27 pm
by sambucol
Yes, thank you, Stratton, I know it’s a long way out, but was wondering if the ridge DoctorMu spoke of would be one to be over us, and protect our area, or be to the east of us if that model were to verify.