September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Rain chances could return by Monday. Next week is looking kinda wet.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021

.AVIATION...

High pressure building into Texas will bring VFR conditions to
area TAF sites today and tonight. Moderate to strong north winds
will diminish by late afternoon and become light easterly by
tomorrow morning. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021/

UPDATE...

Reissued AFD to correct headlines. Fire Weather Watch no longer in
effect.

SHORT TERM [Today through Thursday Night]...

A cold front has crossed the coast and high pressure will build into
Texas behind the front. Still some cloudiness near the coast but
this should end quickly as subsidence kicks in behind the front.
There will be a period of high clouds this morning but even these
should end as a jet streak exits the region. Fcst soundings show
little in the way of saturation so will go with sunny skies today.
Rapid cooling at 850 mb from 22 C yesterday to 14 C will yield a
significant cool down with MaxT values today reaching the lower and
middle 80`s. It will be dry today with humidity levels falling below
25 percent out west and around 35 percent near the coast. The
combination of low RH and moderate winds will set the stage for
elevated fire weather conditions today. Sustained winds will not
reach fire weather Red Flag criteria but that doesn`t mean conds
won`t be dangerous for fast growing fires, particularly grass fires.
Will issue an SPS to highlight the risk.

Tonight will be blissful if you like cool, crisp autumn nights. Dry
air will stick around, skies will remain clear and winds will
decouple. This will create ideal conditions for radiational cooling
and radiate it will with MinT values falling to near 50 degrees at
local cool spots like KCXO and in the mid/upper 50`s elsewhere.
Tonight looks absolutely wonderful.

Surface high pressure will drift east on Thursday but 850 mb
temperatures don`t show any appreciable warming so will keep MaxT
values similar to today with highs warming into the mid 80`s. A
light onshore wind will return Thursday night and MinT values will
warm a bit from tonight`s values but still remain on the cool side
for this time of year. 43

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure remains overhead on Friday and Saturday. Although
temperatures climb back into the mid to upper 80s by Saturday,
dewpoints stay in the 50s and 60s, helping to keep things mild. As
high pressure begins to move out late Saturday/early Sunday,
onshore flow resumes. This will gradually drive temperatures and
humidity up once again with 850mb temperatures reaching 16-18 C
by late Sunday and daytime highs reaching the 90s once again. With
dewpoints crawling back into the 70s south of I-10, muggy weather
will return.

Sunday onwards, global models are in more of an agreeance with
the return of rain chances early next week. Models show a sfc
inverted trough over the Gulf near Brownsville`s coastal waters
migrating north early next week. Meanwhile, a mid level trough
over the Southwest US will push east and help amplify the
inverted trough over the Gulf by the time it reaches our CWA
sometime late Monday/early Tuesday. Therefore, rain chances return
early next week, but kept them capped at 30-50% for now since
much depends on the timing, intensity, and location of these
synoptic features. Depending on rain chances and cloud cover,
temperatures will be slightly cooler and reach the upper 80s. KBL

MARINE...

In the wake of our latest cold front, strong northerly winds will
persist throughout the day along with building seas. A Small Craft
advisory remains in effect for all coastal waters until this
afternoon, and might need to be extended until this evening for
our 20 to 60 nm waters. Winds and seas will gradually diminish by
Thursday and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today with low RH
values amd moderate winds. A Red Flag Warning is issued when
sustained winds exceed 20 mph with RH values below 25 percent.
Sustained north winds will be around 15 mph today with higher gusts.
RH values will fall below 25 percent so the NW half of the area is
close to Red Flag criteria but appears to fall short so will
highlight the fire weather risk with an SPS.

Dew points are progged to fall into the upper 30`s to mid 40`s
across SE TX. With MaxT values approaching the mid 80`s this
afternoon. This will yield RH values below 20 percent over the far
NW zones and below 25 percent over much of the NW half of the
region. The strongest winds today will likely be this morning into
the early afternoon, while the lowest RH values will likely occur
late morning to late afternoon so the two primary fire wx parameters
look a bit out of phase. Rainfall in September over the NW half has
been well below normal with College Station and Huntsville each with
reporting less than a half inch of rain in September. KBDI values
for these locations (north of a Columbus to Navasota to Trinity
line) are between 600-700 which is another indicator of how dry it`s
been. Burn Bans are in effect for Colorado, Madison, Walker and
Waller counties. Use extreme caution if working with flammable
materials today or better yet, wait for a day with lighter winds and
higher humidity before proceeding to burn outdoors. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 55 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 85 57 85 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 70 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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22% humidity. Dewpoint of 43°. The mosquitoes have been knocked down for at least this week. Very nice!

Unsettled weather arriving next week. Enjoy for now.
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DoctorMu
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Adios Texas Tropical Season.
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redneckweather
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It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
Iceresistance
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:15 am It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
My house got down to 49°F this morning, 50°F Yesterday Morning
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DoctorMu
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A Chamber of Commerce day with a current temperature of 73°F under crystal blue skies, light breeze, and dewpoint of 47°F.
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Texaspirate11
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Heavenly. Someone bottle this wx!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:15 am It got down to 50 this morning here near Lake Conroe. Feels absolutely great!
54 here in Wharton this morning.
Cpv17
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Looks like rain chances are diminishing for next week..of course.
Stratton20
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CPV17 its toon soon to say that
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:26 pm CPV17 its toon soon to say that
Maybe. Models trended in the wrong direction today. Maybe tomorrow they will trend back wet again, hopefully.
Stratton20
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CPV17 hope they do! I love stormy weather, nothing better than a good old lightning show with some heavy rain😄
Cpv17
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Not quite as cool out there this morning but I still managed to get down to 55.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

With high pressure remaining in place over the area, another calm
and clear weather day is expected with VFR conditions expected to
persist throughout. Easterly winds near 10 knots will develop this
morning, veering to the southeast during the afternoon and
becoming light and variable overnight. Minimal cloud cover is
anticipated with no cig/vis concerns.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Night]...

The synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by the presence of
surface high pressure over the south-central CONUS with weak ridging
developing aloft. As the surface high jogs further eastward during
the day today, winds will continue to shift gradually to the
southeast. However, wind speeds should remain relatively calm given
the relatively weak pressure gradient present across the area. As a
result, we should only experience a modest increase in temperatures
today as any impacts from WAA should be relatively insignificant.
Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s at most inland locations,
staying closer to 80 along the coast. Conditions should remain
generally pleasant with dew points hovering in the upper 50s
/ lower 60s, though summer-like humidity will begin its gradual
return to the area as the onshore wind pattern strengthens in the
coming days.

The gradual return to heat and humidity continues on Saturday as
east/southeasterly flow gradually begins to strengthen offshore.
Another slight increase in highs (mid-upper 80s) and lows (near 60
to mid 60s inland, near 70 along the coast) is expected, though
surface dew points around 60 should keep things feeling relatively
pleasant. By Saturday night, the further eastward shift of surface
high pressure and a tightening pressure gradient over
central/eastern TX will allow for a more pronounced onshore flow to
begin to develop.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...

High pressure will be located over the central Appalachians low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. Surface winds
will slowly veer from the E to SE. PWATs remain low, generally
under an inch, so conditions not looking favorable for rain. Fcst
soundings don`t show much in the way of saturation so skies
expected to be partly to mostly sunny. 860 mb temps support
support MaxT values in the upper 80`s. Clouds return Sunday night
as low level moisture begins to deepen. PWATs deepen on Monday
and reach 1.80 inches by Monday afternoon. Weak warm air advection
(WAA) will increase, with gentle lift and weak surface
convergence coupled with the deeper moisture should generate some
showers Monday afternoon into Monday night.

On Tuesday, a robust upper level low over CA will move east into
the desert southwest. As it approaches upper level ridging expands
over South Texas into the western Gulf. Global models are in good
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
but considering the strength and position of the upper level ridge
and the lack of surface convergence, not sure why models are so
aggressive. Yet models are in good agreement with mass fields but
have leaned toward the lower side of guidance until a trigger for
precip is found. That said, a speed max will approach SE TX
Tuesday night into Wednesday and that should help initiate precip
Tues night and Weds. Fcst soundings don`t show much capping on
Wednesday but they do show some very dry air in the 850-700 mb
layer which is troubling. Global models continue to trend wet for
Thursday and forecast profiles look semi saturated and PW values
remain near 1.90 inches. That said, the jet dynamics don`t look
favorable and SE TX will lie in the subsident region of the
jet. Will again temper my enthusiasm with regard to PoPs and lean
toward the lower side of guidance. Conditions will begin to dry on
Friday as PW values decrease to around 1.45 inches and capping
begins to increase in the 850-700 mb layer. High temperatures next
week show a slow warming trend but MaxT values will be strongly
dependent on cloud cover/precip. 850 mb temperatures support
surface values in the upper 80`s on Sunday warming into the lower
90`s by mid/late week. MinT values will warm up again surface dew
points climb back into the 70`s. 43


.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern US and lower pressures over the
southern Gulf will allow for east winds to persist today and again
on Saturday. The pressure gradient will remain semi-lax and a
light to moderate onshore flow is expected. Pressures will begin
to drop in the lee of the Rockies on Sunday and surface winds will
veer to the southeast. The pressure gradient tightens a little
and wind speeds will gradually increase. Moisture levels will
increase and there will be a chance for precip Monday through
Wednesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 87 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 61 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 82 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
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DoctorMu
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^In summary, MEH on rain chances next week.
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 241735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR throughout, albeit not *completely* SKC everywhere as some
FEW/SCT VFR-level clouds sneak in here and there. E/SE winds to
around 10kts this afternoon become near calm overnight, increasing
again towards mid-day tomorrow.

&&
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snowman65
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So......when is the next front????
Stratton20
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snowman65 your gonna have to wait a while for the next legit fall front, models arent really showing another good shot of cooler air in the next 7 days
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snowman65
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:47 am snowman65 your gonna have to wait a while for the next legit fall front, models arent really showing another good shot of cooler air in the next 7 days
wrong answer!🤣🤣
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