September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djmike
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by djmike » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:33 pm

Getting hammered all day in Beaumont and The Golden Triangle. 5-8” so far in some areas. Been going strong for us since 6am this morning. Man, today would have been a great nap day. 😞
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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Texaspirate11
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Texaspirate11 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:56 pm

Been raining most of the day by the bay with some really nice thunder.
I'm enjoying this
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Cpv17
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:43 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Tue Sep 28, 2021 1:56 pm
Been raining most of the day by the bay with some really nice thunder.
I'm enjoying this
Not much action at my location yet. Maybe tomorrow will be a bigger day for me.

Stratton20
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Sep 28, 2021 2:57 pm

Meanwhile College Station will probably somehow avoid getting any rain here, that how it feels like it goes lol

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:35 pm

Cranking on the Brazoria County line headed towards Harris

Iceresistance
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Iceresistance » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:36 pm

Storms firing across Central, Northern & Western Texas & into Southern Oklahoma

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DoctorMu
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:53 pm

As usual recently. Nothing.

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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Sep 28, 2021 3:55 pm


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don
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by don » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:12 pm

Looks like we'll have a weak MCS tonight/tomorrow morning moving in from central Texas.Seems like the Fall thunderstorm season has started a little early this year.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CDT Tue Sep 28 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday Night]...

Storms continue to fire up along and south of the I-69 corridor and
should be expanding northwest with further daytime destabilization.
Storms have lined up generally southwest to northeast and are moving
either east on the southern flank or north and northwest on the
northern flank. Storms well inland gradually weakening. The HRRR
this morning was underestimating the vigorous nature of the
convection and persistence and may be focused too far south. RAP is
overall a much lighter scenario as well as focused south. Speed max
moving through NErn Mexico already showing it`s hand with storms
developing near Old Faithful and north of the Big Bend. As the
vigorous s/w approaches tonight expecting a blossoming of deep
convection west of the area to spread east into the area mainly
after 9 pm and continue through the overnight hours. Locally heavy
rain the main concern with rainfall rates of 2"+/hour. Although it
is possible this incoming system could shift the rain swath south
into Matagorda bay area/Gulf waters am skeptical given the main axis
of the upper jet and more favorable diffluence with the left front
quad moves into the northwest and central CWA. Currently forecasting
a large swath of 0.5" across the southern and western 2/3rds of the
region. (much needed rainfall) But of course the issue is the
rapidity of rainfall overwhelming runoff systems.

These storms early Wednesday should eventually shift east and then
weaken probably in the eastern areas. The upper jet weakens and
starts buckling as trough deepens and the area of diffluence here
wanes. Storms during the day Wednesday are very likely to be
mesoscale driven with remnant outflow from the overnight storms/rain
cooled pockets and very extensive cloud cover hampering
destabilization on Wednesday. At this point thinking that storms
should wane with the storms redeveloping over the south and
southwestern areas late morning and afternoon then wane by mid
evening. Showers and moving in with the tropical air off the Gulf
early Thursday morning.
45

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Chance to likely PoPs will persist through the remainder of the week
and into the weekend as a trough over the SW US continues to send
shortwave PVA impulses across our area. This combined with a
meandering split jet overhead will also enhance our rain chances
throughout the week. This jet streak`s placement will bring our CWA
in and out of divergence aloft as it meanders across TX, which will
also vary our rain chances. PWs are expected to remain above 2.0
inches, so efficient and heavy rainfall is expected. Rainfall
accumulations are forecast to reach 1 to 3 inches Thursday through
Tuesday, but isolated heavier amounts are still possible.
Forecast soundings hint at isolated strong storms embedded within
these showers with SBCAPE ranging from 1800 to 2300 J/kg, but
shear appears to be weak at 10kt or less. Other stability indices
also appear to be sub-severe. If anything, "long and skinny" CAPE
suggests efficient rainfall once again as storms will have plenty
of instability, but won`t grow too rapidly.

By Sunday, the trough axis pushes eastward and drags a weak cold
front into Texas. Global models differ on this front`s timing,
intensity, and duration for our area, so stay tuned as models get
a better handle on this front. As of right now, it appears PWs
decrease slightly to 1.5 to 1.6 inches across the area as winds
become northeast and dry air infiltrates our region. Therefore,
rain chances decrease slightly to just chance PoPs. Regarding
temperatures throughout the long term, much depends on rain
chances and cloud cover throughout the week, but seasonal or
slightly cooler than seasonal temperatures are expected.

Lenninger

Cromagnum
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Re: September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:19 pm

I don't know what it is geographically about the Rosharon area, but we get dry slotted extremely often with these systems. It's weird.

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