September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[weatherguy425]

12z Euro showing a weak tropical wave getting into the gulf next week fwiw

Ensembles ( EPS, GEFS, GEPS) are a bit more excited with development in the extreme western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche late this-coming week.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 yeah i think we may see something try to flare up, the problen is *IF* this were to track into the western gulf, we would have a problem, that energy in that part of the gulf is untapped or undisturbed because IDA looks like it will stay more in the central GOM, almost september and Texas has had some nasty systems in years past in september, definitely something to keep an eye on

Water temperatures can be important, but are only part of the equation. Land interaction, dry air entrainment and wind shear can individually destroy a system even with ideal water temperature profiles. We’ll just have to see how/if it sets up.

[Stratton20]

I agree with that we will see but FWIW the 12z GFS does show a window in the gulf next week with lower shear, so a system could potentially take advantage of that

[Cpv17]

Definitely something to keep an eye on here.

[DoctorMu]

Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.





Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...

[captainbarbossa19]

Ridge building post-Ida. Par for the course when LA 'canes slide by us. I'm looking forward to the first cold front, about a month away.





Football season is here. So, cold and wet ones will be consumed inside in the AC...

Fun. So if we have a storm, it's going to be miserable outside afterwards. Reminds me of post-Rita.

[sambucol]

Would the ridge building back keep any possible tropical system away from Southeast Texas?

[Stratton20]

sambucol its very hard to know that considering what the models are hinting at is late next week, roughly 8 days from now, also very difficult to forecast troughs and ridges beyond that timeframe as well

[sambucol]

Yes, thank you, Stratton, I know it’s a long way out, but was wondering if the ridge DoctorMu spoke of would be one to be over us, and protect our area, or be to the east of us if that model were to verify.

[Stratton20]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

[captainbarbossa19]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

The models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 exactly!

[weatherguy425]

There are big question marks on where, if, when a system will form let alone what the steering patten would be. But, the ridge modeled on that image is not a sure bet to protect us on that model run; centered too far north.

[sambucol]

There are big question marks on where, if, when a system will form let along what the steering patten would be. But, the ridge modeled on that image is not a sure bet to protect us on that model run; centered too far north.

Thank you.

[DoctorMu]

Yes, thank you, Stratton, I know it’s a long way out, but was wondering if the ridge DoctorMu spoke of would be one to be over us, and protect our area, or be to the east of us if that model were to verify.

If the ridge is there it would block a TC.

[DoctorMu]

sambucol its possible it could, but it also might not either depending on *IF* something forms

The models also just recently overestimated the strength of the ridge with Ida, as she was originally supposed to head into Mexico. I am not buying into a strong ridge setup yet.

The models miss the timing re-establishing the ridge by a couple of days. That gap is where Ida has snuck into LA.

[TexasBreeze]

Models show a trailing trough from future remnant Ida reaching the coast giving some areas rain this week.

CMC and GFS 12z shows a system on our coastline hr 216 and 240. 7th and 8th of Sept.

[sambucol]

Models show a trailing trough from future remnant Ida reaching the coast giving some areas rain this week.

CMC and GFS 12z shows a system on our coastline hr 216 and 240. 7th and 8th of Sept.

Is the system it’s showing a hurricane?

[Stratton20]

CMC shows a potential for a hurricane while the GFS has a sloppy weak system approaching the texas coast next weekend ir early next week