October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Pretty unsettled and semi-tropical next week, regardless.
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DoctorMu
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Lows in the 70s beginning Sunday. Yuck! Chance of rain all week.

Low confidence in location, temp change with the second front. I expect Sucking, so if we get rain and cooler temps.

The following week appears cooler and drier...for now.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast is very similar to what we`ve seen over the last few
days. VFR conditions will prevail. Winds pick up slightly in the
afternoon and subside overnight. Calm winds and clear skies will
lead to patchy fog overnight once again, but coverage will be
further north than what we`ve previously seen and could impact CLL
and UTS tonight. Fog should dissipate near sunrise and southerly
winds increase slightly. A front should approach our area on
Sunday, but upper-level cirrus clouds will precede it, so a
BKN250 ceiling is possible for northern sites tomorrow. KBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

No major forecast issues for today and tonight even with light on-
shore winds returning across the CWA. Dry/quiet weather to prevail
with highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to around 90. RH levels
should remain low but as the SE winds persist, we`ll start tapping
into some slightly deeper moisture from the far western Gulf.
This
should make for more favorable conditions for fog development late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will range from
the mid/upper 60s inland...lower/mid 70s at the immediate coast.

Another quiet day planned for tomorrow as the airmass across SE TX
remains (still) mostly dry and stable. Highs should range from the
upper 80s/around 90 yet again. The increased low-level moisture is
expected be a bit more noticeable by tomorrow night along with
some slightly warmer overnight temperatures on tap (upper 60s to
around 70 inland and upper 70s at the coast). Some very isolated
WAA-type showers might be possible...for locations in/near
Matagorda Bay by sunrise Sun.

41


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Next week is looking quite different compared to this past week.
Going into Sunday, an upper level low will be digging down across
the Four Corners region with ridging still in place over coastal
Texas. The low pressure system will move eastward through Monday
morning before getting pulled northeastward while the associated
cold front moves across Texas. Most guidance brings the front into
the Burleson-Madison-Houston County line late Sunday night/early
Monday morning bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms.
The boundary will weaken and become diffuse as it
crosses our area during the day on Monday. Because of the weak,
diffuse nature of the front, don`t expect much of temperature or
humidity change compared to the weekend. Precipitation chances
will be low Tuesday and Wednesday, but another (potentially
stronger) cold front will be moving through the area towards the
end of next week. Will need to monitor this system going into next
week as SE Texas will have favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development (under the right entrance quadrant of a jetstreak with
plenty of moisture for storms to work with).
However, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing and location of
this front.
GFS is the most progressive bringing the boundary
through Thursday morning, while the EC is slower by about 24
hours. With the timing differences, expect low confidence in not
only the precipitation forecast towards the end of the long term,
but also the temperatures
.

Speaking of temperatures, looking like the warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in
the 70s. The front towards the end of next week will usher in cooler
(and drier) air.

Fowler


.MARINE...

The tranquil weather will persist through Saturday with light winds
and low seas expected. However, conditions begin to become more
hazardous Sunday as southeasterly winds climb to 15 to 20 kts by
the afternoon with higher wind gusts possible in response to a
tightening pressure gradient over the region and an approaching
weak cold front. Caution conditions are likely to start Sunday
through Monday morning with Small Craft Advisories possibly being
needed. Wave heights will be climbing to 4 to 5 feet by Monday
morning as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as the boundary approaches the coast, but not expecting a
wind shift as the front dissipates before reaching the coast.
Winds will drop below caution criteria Tuesday, but wave heights
will remain around 5 feet through most of next week.

The persistent onshore flow through next week will lead to
elevated strong rip current risks starting as soon as this
weekend. Will also be monitoring tidal levels as high astronomical
tides combined with the moderate to strong onshore flow will lead
to elevated high tides around 3 to 4ft above MLLW starting this
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 90 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 66 89 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 77 87 78 / 0 0 0 20 30
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don
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Increasing cloudiness and the possibility of some isolated streamer
showers can be expected Sunday as Gulf moisture flows back into the
region. An upper level trof will move eastward across north Texas
and OK Sunday & Sunday night, then toward the northeast and Great
Lakes Monday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected
to develop along its associated weak frontal boundary then track
into southeast Texas late Sunday night & Monday. The front itself
probably won`t make it too far into the region, if at all,
considering the upper flow becomes oriented parallel to the boundary
and no longer has a "push". Precip coverage should generally
diminish during the afternoon and evening hours Monday, though still
expect some isolated activity to continue in WAA regime thru Tues.

Next western trof dips into the Desert Southwest Tuesday and ejects
northeast across the Rockies and Northern Plains Wednesday into
Thurs. Considering that we`ll be situated closer to the mid level
ridging stretched across the western Gulf into the southeast states,
feel that better rain chances Wed into early Thurs will be highest
to the west of the CWA.

More uncertainty creeps into the fcst Thurs into Fri. Look for a
tropical system to make landfall along the Pacific coast during
midweek. Guidance is in general agreement bringing some associated
Pacific moisture toward Tx late in the week...and GFS has shown some
consistency showing a remnant llvl/sfc circulation remaining intact
and bring it off the nw Gulf Coast (kind of similar to Patricia in
2015). Expect an increase in precip chances Thurs or Fri...but
timing/specifics are a dart throw at this point. 47
Cpv17
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The models are showing a general consensus of the rain going over central Texas and southeast TX being on the edge of it. Long ways off though so we’ll see. The ensembles look a bit better and the CPC forecast doesn’t look too bad.
redneckweather
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I'm liking the looks of the latest GFS run bringing a strong front through the area late next week with highs only in the lower/mid 70's for days after. I wouldn't be surprised if highs are only in the 60's for next weekend if it holds. We will see.
Iceresistance
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This has really high Potential Tomorrow :shock:

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Stratton20
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Highs next week in the 60’s with that front? Yeah im gonna be pretty skeptical about that, mid 70’s seems more reasonable
redneckweather
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The GFS says fall is coming late next week and bigger front around the 23rd.
Iceresistance
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I may never be online this afternoon because of this :shock:

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Cpv17
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Looking like a central Texas rain event coming up. Not sure we’ll see much around here.
davidiowx
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Onshore flow is really cranking up! I’ve had some wind gust over 20mph
Iceresistance
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Gusts to 30 right now . . .
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DoctorMu
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S 20
G 30 mph here in CLL

More like an early Spring Day.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:28 am Looking like a central Texas rain event coming up. Not sure we’ll see much around here.
Yep,alot is going to depend on how far south the front is once the remnant energy moves into the state.The closer to the coast the frontal boundary is at that time, the higher potential for heavy rainfall there is for us.Right now though models are temporarily stalling the frontal boundary in north and west Texas,which would keep the heaviest rain away from us as the remnants ride the frontal boundary northeast into the state.And by the time the front finally does get a push from a trough and moves towards the coast,the remnants are sheared out by then.And we dry out quickly due to the northwest flow aloft after the front moves through.On the bright side at least most of us should see a few drops of rain this week but I wouldn't expect more than an inch at the most for us.Maybe two inches if you're lucky LOL :P
Stratton20
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Crossing my fingers that the front gets further south then what the models are showing, id love some heavy rain!
Kingwood36
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I'm sick of the rain my yard is a mud pit..yall can have it
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:12 pm I'm sick of the rain my yard is a mud pit..yall can have it
How? It’s barely rained in your area since Nic, right? Takes that long to dry out there?
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:46 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:12 pm I'm sick of the rain my yard is a mud pit..yall can have it
How? It’s barely rained in your area since Nic, right? Takes that long to dry out there?
We've only had a couple of decent rains since mid-August.

There's a frontal/dry line forming in West Texas. It *might* reach College Station by midnight. We'll see. The Frontier folks installing new lines dug in the yard and during installation. We repaired 2 sectors, 2 sections are still out. It's Brown Patch and Weed Season now. Do not like to run the sprinklers or drag the hose around the backyard any more. We have sodium in the city water. It's soft, but alkaline.

As Nick Saban would say - that water is "rat poison." It means I have to apply more iron and more fertilizer to keep plants, grass happy. I've already deposited a layer of fungicide last weekend. Time to put more pre-emergence herbicide down.

Really feels like a humid early May day instead of October. Multiple days of ≥70°F dewpoints ahead before relief in Friday.

Good to see the Ags take a few more years off Saban's career last night! :lol:
Kingwood36
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:46 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:12 pm I'm sick of the rain my yard is a mud pit..yall can have it
How? It’s barely rained in your area since Nic, right? Takes that long to dry out there?
I'm in freeport remember lol it's rained since nick lol
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 6:13 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:46 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:12 pm I'm sick of the rain my yard is a mud pit..yall can have it
How? It’s barely rained in your area since Nic, right? Takes that long to dry out there?
I'm in freeport remember lol it's rained since nick lol
I know that lol but when? I don’t remember anything significant happening around there since the hurricane.
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