October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and a few tornadoes should occur Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of east/southeast Texas across
Louisiana to the central Gulf Coast.

...East Texas/ArkLaTex to the Central Gulf Coast...
A highly amplified upper trough over the Plains will progress
eastward Wednesday, eventually closing off over the lower/mid MS
Valley and Mid-South late. An elongated area of surface low pressure
initially over the southern/central Plains should develop to the
Ozarks through Wednesday evening. The cold front attendant to the
surface low will sweep eastward across central/east TX through the
day, and will continue over much of the lower MS Valley Wednesday
night. Low-level moisture is forecast to return northward in tandem
with a surface warm front ahead of the advancing cold front from
southeast/east TX into much of LA and the central Gulf Coast states.
A threat for severe/damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will exist
where this low-level moisture is sufficient to support surface-based
storms.

A line of storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period
Wednesday morning from parts of southeastern OK to south-central TX.
Mainly a scattered damaging wind threat will probably persist with
this line as it moves quickly eastward across east/southeast TX
through about midday. With greater low-level moisture attempting to
return northward ahead of this activity, filtered diurnal heating
should help foster around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Wednesday
afternoon south of the warm front. Deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt
will support storm organization with the line, and with any
supercells that can develop ahead of it. Latest guidance shows
conflicting signals on this pre-squall line supercell potential, but
low-level warm advection associated with an eastward-migrating 35-45
kt southerly low-level jet suggests at least some threat for
discrete supercells ahead of the line. Regardless of convective
mode, low-level shear across the warm sector should be sufficient
for updraft rotation, and isolated tornadoes may occur with
mesovorticies embedded within the line, and with any supercells that
can develop ahead of it.

This tornado and damaging wind threat will shift eastward across
much of LA Wednesday afternoon and into southern MS/AL and the
western FL Panhandle Wednesday evening/night.
Iceresistance
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12z Models are going crazy for Next Week
Kingwood36
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Iceresistance wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 1:58 pm 12z Models are going crazy for Next Week
What are they showing..I just ordered a let's go brandon hoodie..may need to try it out 😆
Iceresistance
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That would be NASTY cold for November if this verified :shock:

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MontgomeryCoWx
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No joke. The A&M-Auburn game could be quite cold in CS.

Praying for a night game!
Team #NeverSummer
Stratton20
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Yeah im going to that A&M vs Auburn game , definitely could be really cold, but I absolutely love cold college football games!!
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I’ve only experienced winter precip once in Kyle Field.

1993 Texas vs A&M. Freezing rain and sleet.
Team #NeverSummer
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Katdaddy
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Glad the line of storm will be in the morning and not during the peak heating of the day. Gotta say I am looking forward to the Thursday wind event with sunny skies.
Stratton20
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Hate that the storms are moving in during the morning, I have to walk to my 10:20 lecture 🙃🙃this is gonna be fun haha
TXWeatherMan
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:02 pm Hate that the storms are moving in during the morning, I have to walk to my 10:20 lecture 🙃🙃this is gonna be fun haha
Most models having it moving out well before that for your area
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