October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Redneckweather if only nature had a fast forward button lol
kyzsl51
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:17 am
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:57 pm Well we probably will be in the low 90’s here all week in CS, so summer definitely is going no where anytime soon at peast where I am
You will be in the upper 80's, maybe hit 90 later in the week with overnight low's in the upper 50's/lower 60's. We don't get that in the summertime. This is our slow transition into the changing of the seasons which is currently happening. This is VERY typical for October. Sure, sometimes we get a big front in October but that is the exception and not the norm.
Exactly 💯 we are right now in the same climate as it would be in mid may.
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Texaspirate11
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WIsh I could post a picture on here but I still dont get how
I did take an awesome photo of a shelf cloud on my way to work in Galveston on Saturday.
Posted it on Twitter and The Weather Channel picked it up along with other mets.
So cool!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Iceresistance
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:59 pm WIsh I could post a picture on here but I still dont get how
I did take an awesome photo of a shelf cloud on my way to work in Galveston on Saturday.
Posted it on Twitter and The Weather Channel picked it up along with other mets.
So cool!
First: Put the image into a GIF uploader (Gifyu for example) & have it upload the photo GIF for you to remove the bandwidth, & once that's done, you put the photo in between 'Image' for it to show up here
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:47 pm Redneckweather if only nature had a fast forward button lol
I was thinking that Summer is spamming the snooze Button until probably now . . . :lol:
Iceresistance
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Severe Weather is now expected for Oklahoma & Northern Texas on Day 5 & Day 7 from the SPC :shock:

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jasons2k
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90 degrees here. Some of the surrounding stations showing 92 so I’m not the hottest in the area.

Looks like a couple more weeks of pool weather.

Would like a shower on Monday to keep things from getting too dry. See y’all then.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080849
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

No major forecast issues for today and tonight even with light on-
shore winds returning across the CWA. Dry/quiet weather to prevail
with highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to around 90. RH levels
should remain low but as the SE winds persist, we`ll start tapping
into some slightly deeper moisture from the far western Gulf. This
should make for more favorable conditions for fog development late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will range from
the mid/upper 60s inland...lower/mid 70s at the immediate coast.

Another quiet day planned for tomorrow as the airmass across SE TX
remains (still) mostly dry and stable. Highs should range from the
upper 80s/around 90 yet again. The increased low-level moisture is
expected be a bit more noticeable by tomorrow night along with
some slightly warmer overnight temperatures on tap (upper 60s to
around 70 inland and upper 70s at the coast). Some very isolated
WAA-type showers might be possible...for locations in/near
Matagorda Bay by sunrise Sun.

41


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Next week is looking quite different compared to this past week.
Going into Sunday, an upper level low will be digging down across
the Four Corners region with ridging still in place over coastal
Texas. The low pressure system will move eastward through Monday
morning before getting pulled northeastward while the associated
cold front moves across Texas. Most guidance brings the front into
the Burleson-Madison-Houston County line late Sunday night/early
Monday morning bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms. The boundary will weaken and become diffuse as it
crosses our area during the day on Monday. Because of the weak,
diffuse nature of the front, don`t expect much of temperature or
humidity change compared to the weekend. Precipitation chances
will be low Tuesday and Wednesday, but another (potentially
stronger) cold front will be moving through the area towards the
end of next week. Will need to monitor this system going into next
week as SE Texas will have favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development (under the right entrance quadrant of a jetstreak with
plenty of moisture for storms to work with). However, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing and location of
this front. GFS is the most progressive bringing the boundary
through Thursday morning, while the EC is slower by about 24
hours. With the timing differences, expect low confidence in not
only the precipitation forecast towards the end of the long term,
but also the temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, looking like the warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in
the 70s. The front towards the end of next week will usher in cooler
(and drier) air.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Some patchy fog this morning should mix out by mid morning as VFR
conditions prevail the rest of the day. Light/variable winds this
morning should shift to the SSE and increase to around 10kts late
morning into the afternoon. With low-level moisture slowly climb-
ing tonight, fog development could be a little more widespread as
we head into early tomorrow/Sat morning.

41

&&

.MARINE...

The tranquil weather will persist through Saturday with light winds
and low seas expected. However, conditions begin to become more
hazardous Sunday as southeasterly winds climb to 15 to 20 kts by
the afternoon with higher wind gusts possible in response to a
tightening pressure gradient over the region and an approaching
weak cold front. Caution conditions are likely to start Sunday
through Monday morning with Small Craft Advisories possibly being
needed. Wave heights will be climbing to 4 to 5 feet by Monday
morning as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as the boundary approaches the coast, but not expecting a
wind shift as the front dissipates before reaching the coast.
Winds will drop below caution criteria Tuesday, but wave heights
will remain around 5 feet through most of next week.

The persistent onshore flow through next week will lead to
elevated strong rip current risks starting as soon as this
weekend. Will also be monitoring tidal levels as high astronomical
tides combined with the moderate to strong onshore flow will lead
to elevated high tides around 3 to 4ft above MLLW starting this
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 64 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 89 66 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 76 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&
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don
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Something to keep an eye on is the interaction between a tropical cyclone that the models have impacting Mexico in the pacific. And its possible interaction with a cold front.As its pulled into Texas as a front approaches. Could end up with a heavy rain event as we've seen with these setups in the past.But its still too far out to know for sure of course.
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Stratton20
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Don I wouldnt mind some heavy rain, but we will see if this ends up playing out
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DoctorMu
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Pretty unsettled and semi-tropical next week, regardless.
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DoctorMu
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Lows in the 70s beginning Sunday. Yuck! Chance of rain all week.

Low confidence in location, temp change with the second front. I expect Sucking, so if we get rain and cooler temps.

The following week appears cooler and drier...for now.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Forecast is very similar to what we`ve seen over the last few
days. VFR conditions will prevail. Winds pick up slightly in the
afternoon and subside overnight. Calm winds and clear skies will
lead to patchy fog overnight once again, but coverage will be
further north than what we`ve previously seen and could impact CLL
and UTS tonight. Fog should dissipate near sunrise and southerly
winds increase slightly. A front should approach our area on
Sunday, but upper-level cirrus clouds will precede it, so a
BKN250 ceiling is possible for northern sites tomorrow. KBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 349 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

No major forecast issues for today and tonight even with light on-
shore winds returning across the CWA. Dry/quiet weather to prevail
with highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to around 90. RH levels
should remain low but as the SE winds persist, we`ll start tapping
into some slightly deeper moisture from the far western Gulf.
This
should make for more favorable conditions for fog development late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will range from
the mid/upper 60s inland...lower/mid 70s at the immediate coast.

Another quiet day planned for tomorrow as the airmass across SE TX
remains (still) mostly dry and stable. Highs should range from the
upper 80s/around 90 yet again. The increased low-level moisture is
expected be a bit more noticeable by tomorrow night along with
some slightly warmer overnight temperatures on tap (upper 60s to
around 70 inland and upper 70s at the coast). Some very isolated
WAA-type showers might be possible...for locations in/near
Matagorda Bay by sunrise Sun.

41


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Next week is looking quite different compared to this past week.
Going into Sunday, an upper level low will be digging down across
the Four Corners region with ridging still in place over coastal
Texas. The low pressure system will move eastward through Monday
morning before getting pulled northeastward while the associated
cold front moves across Texas. Most guidance brings the front into
the Burleson-Madison-Houston County line late Sunday night/early
Monday morning bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms.
The boundary will weaken and become diffuse as it
crosses our area during the day on Monday. Because of the weak,
diffuse nature of the front, don`t expect much of temperature or
humidity change compared to the weekend. Precipitation chances
will be low Tuesday and Wednesday, but another (potentially
stronger) cold front will be moving through the area towards the
end of next week. Will need to monitor this system going into next
week as SE Texas will have favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development (under the right entrance quadrant of a jetstreak with
plenty of moisture for storms to work with).
However, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing and location of
this front.
GFS is the most progressive bringing the boundary
through Thursday morning, while the EC is slower by about 24
hours. With the timing differences, expect low confidence in not
only the precipitation forecast towards the end of the long term,
but also the temperatures
.

Speaking of temperatures, looking like the warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in
the 70s. The front towards the end of next week will usher in cooler
(and drier) air.

Fowler


.MARINE...

The tranquil weather will persist through Saturday with light winds
and low seas expected. However, conditions begin to become more
hazardous Sunday as southeasterly winds climb to 15 to 20 kts by
the afternoon with higher wind gusts possible in response to a
tightening pressure gradient over the region and an approaching
weak cold front. Caution conditions are likely to start Sunday
through Monday morning with Small Craft Advisories possibly being
needed. Wave heights will be climbing to 4 to 5 feet by Monday
morning as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as the boundary approaches the coast, but not expecting a
wind shift as the front dissipates before reaching the coast.
Winds will drop below caution criteria Tuesday, but wave heights
will remain around 5 feet through most of next week.

The persistent onshore flow through next week will lead to
elevated strong rip current risks starting as soon as this
weekend. Will also be monitoring tidal levels as high astronomical
tides combined with the moderate to strong onshore flow will lead
to elevated high tides around 3 to 4ft above MLLW starting this
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 64 90 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 50
Houston (IAH) 66 89 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 76 86 77 87 78 / 0 0 0 20 30
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don
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Increasing cloudiness and the possibility of some isolated streamer
showers can be expected Sunday as Gulf moisture flows back into the
region. An upper level trof will move eastward across north Texas
and OK Sunday & Sunday night, then toward the northeast and Great
Lakes Monday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected
to develop along its associated weak frontal boundary then track
into southeast Texas late Sunday night & Monday. The front itself
probably won`t make it too far into the region, if at all,
considering the upper flow becomes oriented parallel to the boundary
and no longer has a "push". Precip coverage should generally
diminish during the afternoon and evening hours Monday, though still
expect some isolated activity to continue in WAA regime thru Tues.

Next western trof dips into the Desert Southwest Tuesday and ejects
northeast across the Rockies and Northern Plains Wednesday into
Thurs. Considering that we`ll be situated closer to the mid level
ridging stretched across the western Gulf into the southeast states,
feel that better rain chances Wed into early Thurs will be highest
to the west of the CWA.

More uncertainty creeps into the fcst Thurs into Fri. Look for a
tropical system to make landfall along the Pacific coast during
midweek. Guidance is in general agreement bringing some associated
Pacific moisture toward Tx late in the week...and GFS has shown some
consistency showing a remnant llvl/sfc circulation remaining intact
and bring it off the nw Gulf Coast (kind of similar to Patricia in
2015). Expect an increase in precip chances Thurs or Fri...but
timing/specifics are a dart throw at this point. 47
Cpv17
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The models are showing a general consensus of the rain going over central Texas and southeast TX being on the edge of it. Long ways off though so we’ll see. The ensembles look a bit better and the CPC forecast doesn’t look too bad.
redneckweather
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I'm liking the looks of the latest GFS run bringing a strong front through the area late next week with highs only in the lower/mid 70's for days after. I wouldn't be surprised if highs are only in the 60's for next weekend if it holds. We will see.
Iceresistance
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This has really high Potential Tomorrow :shock:

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Stratton20
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Highs next week in the 60’s with that front? Yeah im gonna be pretty skeptical about that, mid 70’s seems more reasonable
redneckweather
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The GFS says fall is coming late next week and bigger front around the 23rd.
Iceresistance
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I may never be online this afternoon because of this :shock:

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Cpv17
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Looking like a central Texas rain event coming up. Not sure we’ll see much around here.
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