October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Well we probably will be in the low 90’s here all week in CS, so summer definitely is going no where anytime soon at peast where I am
Cpv17
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redneckweather wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:42 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 12:44 pm
redneckweather wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 9:56 am

Do what? We have a cool front coming thru today with possible rain. It's going to give us cool nights and dry weather for most of this coming week.
Ehhh, it’s nothing significant. Lows in the low to mid 60’s for a few days. Humidity will be back by the weekend. Rain chances are small with this front. Long range ensembles look terrible. Above average temps and below normal precip.
You said "NO FRONTS". That was 100% false. That is what I was acknowledging.

October is always our transition month from summer to fall...like a tug of war battle. The good news is summer is already losing its grip.
I clearly was talking about something worth mentioning. An October front that only drops temps to 60-65° isn’t really anything to write home about. It’s nothing exciting.
Cpv17
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We MIGHT be able to see some average rain chances but I’d lean to below normal at least over the next 10 days. After that it gets a bit iffy on rain. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Stratton20
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Talk about a very disappointing outlook from NOAA
davidiowx
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It’d be nice if this “front” would hurry up and drop the dew point/humidity. It’s down right a swamp outside where I am. Stagnant air and full of water.. disgusting.
Stratton20
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Lol this “front” did absolutely nothing here in CS, still around 70 degrees for a morning “low”, probably wont get a significant cold front until the end of october smh
Kingwood36
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It's like this EVERY year..doesn't start to cool off till the end of Oct into November..why are yall acting so suprised it's still hot lol
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jasons2k
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It’s all good for me. I got to swim yesterday. Upgraded gas meter for the heater gets hooked-up today. I’ll take this weather over drizzly and gloomy in any month.
redneckweather
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:57 pm Well we probably will be in the low 90’s here all week in CS, so summer definitely is going no where anytime soon at peast where I am
You will be in the upper 80's, maybe hit 90 later in the week with overnight low's in the upper 50's/lower 60's. We don't get that in the summertime. This is our slow transition into the changing of the seasons which is currently happening. This is VERY typical for October. Sure, sometimes we get a big front in October but that is the exception and not the norm.
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snowman65
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did yall see the forecast thats callng for a major cold front in about a week??...yeah, me either🤣🤣🤣
Stratton20
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Redneckweather if only nature had a fast forward button lol
kyzsl51
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redneckweather wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 11:17 am
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Oct 03, 2021 3:57 pm Well we probably will be in the low 90’s here all week in CS, so summer definitely is going no where anytime soon at peast where I am
You will be in the upper 80's, maybe hit 90 later in the week with overnight low's in the upper 50's/lower 60's. We don't get that in the summertime. This is our slow transition into the changing of the seasons which is currently happening. This is VERY typical for October. Sure, sometimes we get a big front in October but that is the exception and not the norm.
Exactly 💯 we are right now in the same climate as it would be in mid may.
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Texaspirate11
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WIsh I could post a picture on here but I still dont get how
I did take an awesome photo of a shelf cloud on my way to work in Galveston on Saturday.
Posted it on Twitter and The Weather Channel picked it up along with other mets.
So cool!
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Iceresistance
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:59 pm WIsh I could post a picture on here but I still dont get how
I did take an awesome photo of a shelf cloud on my way to work in Galveston on Saturday.
Posted it on Twitter and The Weather Channel picked it up along with other mets.
So cool!
First: Put the image into a GIF uploader (Gifyu for example) & have it upload the photo GIF for you to remove the bandwidth, & once that's done, you put the photo in between 'Image' for it to show up here
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Oct 04, 2021 12:47 pm Redneckweather if only nature had a fast forward button lol
I was thinking that Summer is spamming the snooze Button until probably now . . . :lol:
Iceresistance
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Severe Weather is now expected for Oklahoma & Northern Texas on Day 5 & Day 7 from the SPC :shock:

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jasons2k
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90 degrees here. Some of the surrounding stations showing 92 so I’m not the hottest in the area.

Looks like a couple more weeks of pool weather.

Would like a shower on Monday to keep things from getting too dry. See y’all then.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 080849
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

No major forecast issues for today and tonight even with light on-
shore winds returning across the CWA. Dry/quiet weather to prevail
with highs this afternoon in the upper 80s to around 90. RH levels
should remain low but as the SE winds persist, we`ll start tapping
into some slightly deeper moisture from the far western Gulf. This
should make for more favorable conditions for fog development late
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Lows tonight will range from
the mid/upper 60s inland...lower/mid 70s at the immediate coast.

Another quiet day planned for tomorrow as the airmass across SE TX
remains (still) mostly dry and stable. Highs should range from the
upper 80s/around 90 yet again. The increased low-level moisture is
expected be a bit more noticeable by tomorrow night along with
some slightly warmer overnight temperatures on tap (upper 60s to
around 70 inland and upper 70s at the coast). Some very isolated
WAA-type showers might be possible...for locations in/near
Matagorda Bay by sunrise Sun.

41


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Next week is looking quite different compared to this past week.
Going into Sunday, an upper level low will be digging down across
the Four Corners region with ridging still in place over coastal
Texas. The low pressure system will move eastward through Monday
morning before getting pulled northeastward while the associated
cold front moves across Texas. Most guidance brings the front into
the Burleson-Madison-Houston County line late Sunday night/early
Monday morning bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms. The boundary will weaken and become diffuse as it
crosses our area during the day on Monday. Because of the weak,
diffuse nature of the front, don`t expect much of temperature or
humidity change compared to the weekend. Precipitation chances
will be low Tuesday and Wednesday, but another (potentially
stronger) cold front will be moving through the area towards the
end of next week. Will need to monitor this system going into next
week as SE Texas will have favorable conditions for thunderstorm
development (under the right entrance quadrant of a jetstreak with
plenty of moisture for storms to work with). However, there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing and location of
this front. GFS is the most progressive bringing the boundary
through Thursday morning, while the EC is slower by about 24
hours. With the timing differences, expect low confidence in not
only the precipitation forecast towards the end of the long term,
but also the temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, looking like the warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday of next week with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in
the 70s. The front towards the end of next week will usher in cooler
(and drier) air.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Some patchy fog this morning should mix out by mid morning as VFR
conditions prevail the rest of the day. Light/variable winds this
morning should shift to the SSE and increase to around 10kts late
morning into the afternoon. With low-level moisture slowly climb-
ing tonight, fog development could be a little more widespread as
we head into early tomorrow/Sat morning.

41

&&

.MARINE...

The tranquil weather will persist through Saturday with light winds
and low seas expected. However, conditions begin to become more
hazardous Sunday as southeasterly winds climb to 15 to 20 kts by
the afternoon with higher wind gusts possible in response to a
tightening pressure gradient over the region and an approaching
weak cold front. Caution conditions are likely to start Sunday
through Monday morning with Small Craft Advisories possibly being
needed. Wave heights will be climbing to 4 to 5 feet by Monday
morning as well. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible as the boundary approaches the coast, but not expecting a
wind shift as the front dissipates before reaching the coast.
Winds will drop below caution criteria Tuesday, but wave heights
will remain around 5 feet through most of next week.

The persistent onshore flow through next week will lead to
elevated strong rip current risks starting as soon as this
weekend. Will also be monitoring tidal levels as high astronomical
tides combined with the moderate to strong onshore flow will lead
to elevated high tides around 3 to 4ft above MLLW starting this
weekend.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 64 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 20
Houston (IAH) 89 66 89 71 89 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 76 86 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&
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don
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Something to keep an eye on is the interaction between a tropical cyclone that the models have impacting Mexico in the pacific. And its possible interaction with a cold front.As its pulled into Texas as a front approaches. Could end up with a heavy rain event as we've seen with these setups in the past.But its still too far out to know for sure of course.
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Stratton20
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Don I wouldnt mind some heavy rain, but we will see if this ends up playing out
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