October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
No, this past Winter's forecasts was even worse, remember the February 2021 Forecast?
Iceresistance
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:52 am
Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:24 pm Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Yes, that happened as well in February 2021
weatherguy425
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
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Last edited by weatherguy425 on Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
weatherguy425
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
And La Nina is only one factor, true.

But, be careful with “trusted Mets” on the Internet...
Stratton20
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Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Yeah on crazy YT Weather Peoples, if I would post something like that, I would also note: "This is only 1 model run, it's likely going to not be there on the next run unless it starts to develop consistency."
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.


Oops. :lol:
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DoctorMu
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weatherguy425 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)

TBH, NOAA's long range predictions haven't been much better 3-5 day progs have been solid...and hurricane predictions.
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