October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Cromagnum
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Hopefully this slop on the way doesn't mess up my Southwest flight. They have enough problems blaming issues on fake weather without actual rain.
Kingwood36
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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
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don
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Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.
Pas_Bon
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Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:53 am NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.
Stratton20
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I suspect we will be in for a cold winter this season, at least the end of december- february, at least thats what I think and hope for
Iceresistance
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Uh oh . . .

Image
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DoctorMu
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don wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:59 am Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.
I was a bit surprised. We receive 1.5 inches from the complex about 3 am. Really needed. Brown patch started appearing on Tuesday and I had put down some additional fungicide. It should be soaked into the topsoil and should be activated. Up here in CLL, you can't beat brown patch; you can only contain it!
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:54 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:53 am NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.

La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”

NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges

Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.
The only thing predictable about a La Nina winter in Texas - it that it is unpredictable! :lol:

Last year being a mega case in point!
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Ptarmigan
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Iceresistance wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:24 pm Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.
Cromagnum
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Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:24 pm Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Stratton20
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The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
No, this past Winter's forecasts was even worse, remember the February 2021 Forecast?
Iceresistance
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:52 am
Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:24 pm Uh oh . . .

Image
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Yes, that happened as well in February 2021
weatherguy425
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
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Last edited by weatherguy425 on Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
weatherguy425
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
And La Nina is only one factor, true.

But, be careful with “trusted Mets” on the Internet...
Stratton20
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Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Yeah on crazy YT Weather Peoples, if I would post something like that, I would also note: "This is only 1 model run, it's likely going to not be there on the next run unless it starts to develop consistency."
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.


Oops. :lol:
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DoctorMu
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weatherguy425 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)

TBH, NOAA's long range predictions haven't been much better 3-5 day progs have been solid...and hurricane predictions.
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