October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
redneckweather
Posts: 914
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by redneckweather » Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:49 am

The cold front is still scheduled for this Friday/Saturday with another on around the 21st keeping day time highs in the 70's for a week give or take. I'm also seeing some mid to upper 40's for lows in some spots in Southeast Texas. Come on with it!

Iceresistance
Posts: 52
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Mon Oct 11, 2021 7:19 am

2.3 inches from my rain gauge, but it's likely closer to 2.5-2.75 inches since most of the heaviest rain was windblown

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 3802
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by jasons2k » Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:58 am

Woke-up to .61” here. We needed that….

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3240
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by tireman4 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 11:34 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 110956
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow/Tuesday Night]...

So far, strong gusty winds have been the main issues with this line
of storms as it has made its way across SE TX this morning. CLL/UTS
ASOS did have reports of gusts around 30ks with the passage of this
line after midnight. These storms should maintain at current levels
of intensity/speed as they move off the coast during the next couple
of hours. So, in its wake, clearing skies and light N/NW winds will
be on tap for the CWA this morning...with mostly sunny skies across
the northern half of the area by this afternoon. However, closer to
the coast, this weak frontal boundary is expected to stall/wash out
when it reaches the coastal waters this afternoon. Lingering clouds
here should eventually dissipate/move out late this afternoon. High
temperatures today should be in the mid 80s for the most part.

Unfortunately, the slightly drier air mass settling over the region
today is still expected to be rather short-lived, per this progres-
sive upper pattern of late. The next mid-level trof/low moving into
the Four Corners tonight will tighten the gradient across the Texas
coast once again. The resultant strong onshore flow should draw ele-
vated PWs back into SE TX (initially 1.6-1.8" then up to 2" by sun-
rise tomorrow/Tues). WAA-type streamer showers will be possible for
this timeframe. With the deeper moisture in place through tomorrow,
will keep low POPs (20%) in place. As this next mid/upper level be-
gins to lift out to the NE (on a track well north of the previous),
another line of storms could form and move into north central TX by
tomorrow night. While current guidance is suggesting that this act-
ivity should be much weaker when/if it does reach SE TX, we`ll have
to keep an eye on trends going forward. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

An established/persistent onshore flow can be expected across the
area Wednesday through Friday until the passage of our next cold
front. Before the front moves through the area, the flow will help
to bring a rise in area precipitable water values, and this moisture
in combination with a deep southwest flow aloft will bring rain chances
back into our forecast. It still looks like the higher chances on
Wednesday and Thursday will generally be well inland (especially
more toward the Texas Hill Country area) and the lower chances
will be near/along the coast as disturbances move across the area
in the southwest flow aloft. Thursday`s rain across the state
could end up being enhanced by the remnants of Pamela. The flow
changes at the end of the week and over the weekend which helps to
bring a strong cold front through the area. A cooler and drier air
mass will build into the state behind this front, and we might even
end up seeing average temperatures below normal as we head into the
second half of the month. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Lowering winds and seas can be expected today, but will keep some
Caution/Advisory flags in place this morning in case it is slow to
occur. A mainly moderate onshore flow and elevated seas can be expected
for much of the week. A strong cold front can be expected to move through
the area at the end of the week with north winds and building seas in
its wake. 42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

This ongoing line of storms is behaving (so far) as it continues to
move across SE TX this morning. And because this, the 12Z TAF pack-
age will likely be dealing with improving conditions/clearing skies
for the northern/central terminals. However, closer to the coast we
may have to hang onto lower CIGS/mentions of VCSH until noon or so.
Thereafter, VFR should prevail for most sites the rest of the after
noon and through this evening. Light N/NW winds this afternoon will
be shifting to the S/SE this evening and strengthening tonight with
perhaps the mention of VCSH for coastal (LBX/GLS) overnight as WAA-
type showers return. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...
The City of Galveston recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees
yesterday. This tied the record high of October 10th of 90 degrees
that was set in 2019. Through the first ten days of October,
Galveston`s average temperature of 81.3 degrees ranks as the 8th
warmest first ten days of the month. The warmest (1st place) is
83.7 degrees set in 2019. Records date back to 1874. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 70 89 74 89 / 0 10 30 10 50
Houston (IAH) 86 73 89 75 89 / 30 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 88 79 87 / 50 20 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 AM CDT early this morning for
the following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Kingwood36
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by Kingwood36 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:13 pm

redneckweather wrote:
Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:49 am
The cold front is still scheduled for this Friday/Saturday with another on around the 21st keeping day time highs in the 70's for a week give or take. I'm also seeing some mid to upper 40's for lows in some spots in Southeast Texas. Come on with it!
Don't say cold front lol it's a cool front..highs in the 70s isn't a cold front..I HATE when tv Mets say a cold front is coming and it's highs in the 70s or 80s and lows in the 50s lol if the HIGH isn't in 40s then it ISNT a cold front...it's a COOL front...I'll get off my soap box now lol

Stratton20
Posts: 1019
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: Katy, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Oct 11, 2021 3:56 pm

Kingwood36 I have to agree with you here, im just calling this a cool front as well, if it aint below 50 degrees for a high the. it isnt a “cold front”😂😁

User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1271
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by djmike » Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:38 am

Not bad for Beaumont. Local mets now forecasting a low of 50 Monday night! Yes! Bring it!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

redneckweather
Posts: 914
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by redneckweather » Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:27 am

We live in Southeast, Texas. It's a cold front. lol

Kingwood36
Posts: 1194
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:07 am

redneckweather wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:27 am
We live in Southeast, Texas. It's a cold front. lol
Nope..we get real cold fronts here..this isn't one of them

redneckweather
Posts: 914
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Re: October 2021

Post by redneckweather » Tue Oct 12, 2021 9:48 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:07 am
redneckweather wrote:
Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:27 am
We live in Southeast, Texas. It's a cold front. lol
Nope..we get real cold fronts here..this isn't one of them

If you want to get technical, when it comes to weather terms, it is called a "cold front"...which is the leading edge of a relatively cool/cold airmass. It doesn't matter if it drops the temperature to 5 degrees or 55 degrees. Yes, we get the difference between cool and cold air but again, from a meteorological perspective, it is a called a cold front. So yes, we have a COLD FRONT coming. :D

Post Reply