October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: October 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:36 pm

Cpv17 exactly

TXWeatherMan
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Re: October 2021

Post by TXWeatherMan » Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:51 pm

I’m looking forward to the cold front. Ready for it to actually feel like fall.

redneckweather
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Re: October 2021

Post by redneckweather » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:02 pm

Find me the weather definition/term of "Cool Front".

Exactly...

Moving along now.

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srainhoutx
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Re: October 2021

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:10 pm

Fall cold front arrives here in the Smoky Mountains on Saturday. Lows in the 30's and highs in the upper 50's to low 60's.
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jasons2k
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Re: October 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:50 pm

Thank you for the photos! Send more as the leaves change please! Take care over there.

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Oct 12, 2021 11:12 pm

Nice. I'll take the COOLER Front on Friday. Lows in the upper 40s, highs in the 70s. Better than the too warm muggy pea soup that's out there!

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tireman4
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Re: October 2021

Post by tireman4 » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:01 pm

00
FXUS64 KHGX 131816
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
116 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...
Quick update to nudge up temperatures this afternoon. (90-92
degrees in the west and 88-89 on the coast. As was expected with
the previous package CU field developed and this is panning out
nicely. The upper level feature of concern is Pamela`s remains
over Mexico which should track out over TX tonight and expecting
heavy rain in the Hill Country and then shifting east towards or
reaching into the western edge of the CWA but will probably
weaken as onshore flow weakens with Pamela lifting out. Still
have some concerns about left over boundaries late Thursday
morning/afternoon as these could potentially become a focus for
redevelopment. Mesoscale feedback issues introducing lower
confidence into the forecast for Thursday.
45

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR this afternoon with moderate and gusty southerly flow. As the
remains of the Pacific system Pamela moves across Central TX
tonight will be looking for ceilings to lower over the UTS/CLL
area with light showers possible after 09z. Intensity of the rains
should pick up and IFR/LIFR conditions will be possible as the
associated showers/thunderstorms track northeast and east.
Streamer showers will be possible over the GLS area this afternoon
but the main impact window should be after midnight expanding
northward into the HOU/IAH hubs after 09z. Still some questions on
how this evolves with some of the high res guidance still very
bullish on a more organized line of storms holding together into
the Houston area around 15z while other dissipating to the west as
Pamela`s upper levels lift out. For now have gone with VCSH/VCTS
for IAH area southward and prevailing -SHRA/PROB30 TSRA UTS/CLL
areas.
45

redneckweather
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Re: October 2021

Post by redneckweather » Wed Oct 13, 2021 2:08 pm

Good AFD from the Houston/Galveston NWS this morning. Looks like temps rebounds maybe in the low 80's next week from temps modifying or a possible HOT front moving north?


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
We should see the main upper trof begin to push E/SE from the TX/OK
Panhandles early Fri as another strong shortwave digging around the
base of the trof provides the impetus for its associated COLD FRONT
to start moving. But out ahead of this line, the moderate to strong
W/SW low-level winds developing across SE TX on Fri could make give
us some very warm temperatures through the afternoon. Did raise MOS
and NBM numbers a couple of degrees to account for this...and these
temperatures could be close to record highs for that day if they do
verify. So, forecasting high temperatures in the upper 80s over the
far northern counties, but elsewhere (central and southern) we will
likely see highs in the lower 90s.

But having said all that, these temperatures will be very dependent
on the timing of this next strong cold front. So per these numbers,
have trended with FROPA across our northern counties for after noon
time and then at the coast around sunset. Did keep low POPs(20%) in
for frontal passage as coverage should be spotty (given the cap and
limited moisture). Cool and dry weather to prevail over the weekend
in the wake of the front. Strong/gusty north winds just behind this
boundary should remain in place across the CWA through Fri night...
then decreasing on Sat. However, these strong offshore winds may re-
main in place over the coast/coastal waters through early Sun. High
temperatures through the weekend should be in the mid and upper 70s
with lows ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s.

As the associated surface high begins moving east, onshore winds are
set to return to SE TX by Mon...and with it warming temperatures for
the start of the week. Highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected as
well as lows in the 50s generally north of I-10/in the 60s for areas
to the south. Rain chances could return to SE TX by next Tues night.
41

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DoctorMu
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Re: October 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Oct 13, 2021 4:57 pm

Big line of showers in the west heading into the Hill Country ahead of the next Cooler Front. Will slam I-35, but expect a weak broken band in CLL in the wee hours.

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tireman4
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Re: October 2021

Post by tireman4 » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:19 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 140947
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
447 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
Early this morning: band of showers and embedded tstms continues
to edge into the area from the west. Weakening trend expected with
continued ewd movement - with one exception in the near term.
Will need to keep a close eye on things into mid morning and
across west/west cntl/sw parts of the CWA. High PW`s, in the
2.0-2.5" range, are in place. In addition, a diffluent flow aloft
is forecast to persist into mid morning before abating. This
favors some continued training & regenerating precip with 20-25kt
llvl southerly flow feeds into the system. Localized pockets of
3-6"+ rains have fallen just to our west along with some cells
exhibiting some rotation. In general, cannot rule out some
localized heavy rain and isolated strong cells in association with
the band situated along the I-10 corridor west of Colorado Co as
it makes its way into sw parts of the region.

Mid morning into noon: Transition period with less favorable
upper support is expected and anticipate a continued weakening
trend and diminishing areal coverage.

This afternoon into evening: continued downward trend. We`ll
still be situated in an axis where scattered then eventually
isolated shra/tstms will track newd across the area...but things
should significantly diminish as the day wears on.

Tonight: could see some fog development for those that see decent
rainfall today, otherwise...continued warm with lows in the 70s.

Fri & Fri night: warm swly llvl flow will support some warm-hot
temps ahead of the cold front that`ll be moving into the area.
Look for the boundary to pass thru the CLL area early in the
afternoon and off the coast in the evening. Scattered shra & tstms
are expected to develop ahead of the boundary as it moves toward
the metro and coastal areas. Clearing, breezy and cooler in its
wake. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
High pressure building into the state in the wake of the strong cold
front will keep things dry/quiet/cool for the weekend. Highs will be
in the 70s for both Sat and Sun. But, we`ll likely see some differen-
ces with lows. Sat night should be the slightly cooler of the two as
lows range from the mid/upper 40s over the northern/more rural areas
with lower/mid 50s for the southern/more urban areas. Sun night will
be a touch warmer with lows generally in the 50s across the CWA.

As the associated surface high begins moving east, onshore winds are
set to return to SE TX by Mon...and with it warming temperatures for
the start of the week. Highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected as
well as lows in the 50s generally north of I-10/in the 60s for areas
to the south. Rain chances could return to coastal SE TX Tues night/
early Wed as low-level moisture deepens...but the better chances (if
these long-range global runs do verify) could be late Wed into Thurs
with perhaps a weak embedded disturbance moving across the area just
ahead of the next cold front. 41

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Rain/embedded tstms will be the primary aviation hazard
today...with diminishing coverage expected this afternoon. Mix bag
of ceiling in advance of the precip (VFR), within (MVFR), behind
(IFR). Look for things to improve this afternoon, though scattered
to isolated precip will remain in the fcst. Patch fog & stratus
development is anticipated tonight...especially at sites north and
west of the metro area. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds and somewhat elevated seas will persist
into tonight. Tides are running above normal and threat of rip
currents exists. Have covered the above with a mix of SCA/SCEC
flags and a Beach Hazard Statement. A strong cold front is
expected to push off the coast Friday evening with strong north
winds expected in its wake. Small craft advisories will be
required Friday night and Saturday. Mariners can anticipate some
gusts to near gale force, especially in the Gulf waters, between
midnight and 10am Saturday. Winds and seas will gradually diminish
Sunday. As high pressure moves to the east, look for winds to
become easterly early next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 73 88 54 74 / 70 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 87 75 91 57 75 / 70 20 40 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 90 64 77 / 40 10 30 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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