October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Looks like a MCS will develop along the front later this week. Strong thunderstorms maybe even some becoming severe and locally heavy rain will be possible.But nothing too significant is expected at this time as the system is forecast to move through the state pretty quickly. But some needed rain for everyone...
Attachments
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_80.png
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc (12).png
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Looks like some interesting weather could be possible in about 10 days from now.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Long range models indicate by the day 10 timeframe , we could see a pretty significant cool down!
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

👀 cool down....
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Neary 80 degrees and over 80% humidity at 9PM. So tired of sweating to just walk outside.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5647
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Weather Rescue this week with the Tue night/Wed front bringing a heavy round of showers. Progged for a reinforcing dry front on Friday that will dip dewpoints into the 40s, possibly less.

FXUS64 KHGX 242322
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

.AVIATION...

VFR early this evening. Still looking for IFR/LIFR conditions to
eventually develop and persist in the late evening through early
morning hours inland TAF sites with light winds in place. By mid
to late morning hours tomorrow, improvements to VFR are expected
with SW to S winds developing. VFR heading into tomorrow evening
with mainly light S winds. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday Night]...

Subsidence has set in behind the shortwave that passed though last
night and earlier this morning. Winds should diminish this evening,
and with mclear skies, look for areas of fog to develop across the
region. Guidance remains bullish on the dense fog potential, so the
morning rush will likely be slower than usual.

Surface high pressure is fcst to be situated in the nw Gulf which
should provide a llvl swly flow and some hot temps once the fog
burns off. Went on the higher side of guidance suggestions for
highs. Rain chances should be close to nil. Expecting another shot
of fog Monday night. 47

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

A major pattern shift begins to arrive on Tuesday as a maturing
lee cyclone in the Western Plains begins to push eastward, with an
associated surface cold front pushing into the South Central
CONUS. Global models continue to indicate the development of a
midlevel shortwave trough ahead of this feature, which will
trigger scattered showers and storms across SE TX during the
afternoon and evening hours. Development will generally occur
along and south of the I-10 corridor.
Precipitation coverage
associated with the passing shortwave remains uncertain, as the
GFS solution depicts a slightly more vigorous trough feature and
more widespread rainfall while the EC`s coverage remains more
scattered in nature. Have kept maximum PoPs in the 20-30% range
through Tuesday evening as a result of this uncertainty.

The main frontal boundary remains expected to push into the area
on Wednesday, with both the EC/GFS solutions now indicating its
arrival late Wednesday morning to the west of I-45 and progression
east to southeastward. GFS remains slightly more progressive in
pushing the front out of the area and into Louisiana by late
Wednesday afternoon, while the EC fropa is a few hours slower.

Widespread showers and storms will accompany the fropa, with a few
strong storms possible given the ample moisture (1.75+ in total
PW) and instability (1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE). Some storms may
produce locally heavy downpours and gusty winds, though
widespread severe weather is not expected.
By Wednesday evening,
precipitation will depart and a rapid clearing is anticipated as
drier air moves into the area. Moderate northwest winds will
accompany the departure of the front, and gusty conditions will
likely persist into Thursday.

Conditions through the remainder of the week and into the weekend
will be markedly different from the abnormally warm and humid
days of late.
Daytime highs through at least Sunday will peak in
the mid to upper 70s in most locations, while overnight lows will
drop into the 50s to low 60s (and into the upper 40s across areas
north of the Houston metro on Friday and Saturday!). The
accompanying reduction in surface dew points into the 30s and 40s
will provide pleasant conditions for any weekend outdoor
activities.
8-)

Cady

MARINE...

With the departure of an upper shortwave and associated convection
today, surface winds have relaxed across the coastal waters and
caution flags have subsequently been dropped. Winds remain light
on Monday as the synoptic pressure gradient loosens, but the
development of surface low pressure in the west Central CONUS will
strengthen the gradient by Tuesday and moderate onshore winds are
expected to return. A surface cold front will approach the area
on Wednesday, with moderate to strong offshore flow developing in
its wake. Wind speeds of up to 25 knots are expected to persist
into Friday with higher gusts expected, and seas will build to
around 6 to 8 feet offshore. Additionally, showers and storms
accompanying the frontal passage may produce heavy downpours and
strong wind gusts. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required
during this time. Winds diminish to around 10 to 15 knots heading
into the weekend as surface high pressure moves into the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 92 70 86 67 / 0 0 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 73 90 70 86 72 / 0 0 0 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 77 84 77 / 0 0 0 20 40
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR to LIFR cigs/vis from fog and low ceilings will slowly start
to dissipate this morning from 14-16Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions
will prevail. Fog and low ceilings possible again tonight for
most sites with high pressure and calm winds still expected
overnight. Brought down sites to MVFR for tonight, but that might
not be pessimistic enough.

Lenninger


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 351 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Fog continues to expand across southeast TX during the early morning
hours with patchy fog in most counties and dense fog focused in our
SW counties. As expected with radiation fog, this should begin to
dissipate after sunrise. Today will be another warm one with a
subtle southwest wind driving temperatures up to the lower 90s for
most areas and upper 80s along the coast. By tonight, temps will
cool to the lower 70s along and south of the I-10 corridor while
northern counties will be a few degrees cooler and near 70. Patchy
to dense fog is possible again tonight with light winds, clear
skies, and subsidence aloft enhancing the conditions for radiation
fog once again.

Tomorrow begins a change in pattern as an approaching mid level
shortwave from Central Mexico with a Pacific tropical maritime
airmass begins to traverse Mexico and push northeast and into
Coastal Texas. This feature will precede a developing lee cyclone in
the Great Plains that will begin to push a cold front through Texas.
Therefore, the mid level shortwave will begin to reach our SW
coastal areas by early afternoon tomorrow, so rain chances will
steadily increase along the coast and expand east and further inland
throughout the day and into the evening. Carrying 20% PoPs by
Tuesday evening. By late Tuesday night, rain chances steadily
increase again across our CWA as the cold front approaches our
northern counties and enhances the mid-level coastal weakness.
Carrying 30-50% PoPs during the late overnight hours Tuesday.
Daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday due to the
help of increased cloud cover and a switch to southeasterly winds
versus the previously warmer southwesterly wind. Therefore, temps
reach the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday. Conversely, this increased
cloud cover will keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer and temps
will cool down to the lower 70s Tuesday night.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Our next taste of fall will be knocking on our door Wednesday
morning as a strong cold front moves through the region. The surface
front will likely move through the College Station area before
sunrise, down towards the Houston Metro area by the mid/late
morning, and then off the coast in the early/mid afternoon. A line
of showers and thunderstorms will by accompanying the FROPA bringing
with it a chance of heavy rainfall. The ground is fairly dry and the
front is pretty progressive, so not expecting much, if any,
flooding issues. However, some isolated urban ponding may occur
if a strong thunderstorm moves over an area of poor drainage.
There is support for some isolated strong thunderstorms to develop
out ahead of the front with the main threat being strong, gusty
winds. The SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms for Wednesday. Subsidence will be strong
behind the front, so once the front is through, the precipitation
and storm chance diminishes quickly. Between rain cooled air and a
FROPA in the early part of the day, went on the lower side of
guidance for high temperatures on Wednesday with highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Dry and cool conditions are expected to continue through the rest of
the long term period. High temperatures will stay in the mid to
upper 70s through Sunday with some slight warming into the low 80s
by the start of next week. Overnight low temperatures will be quite
chilly with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s south of I-10 and
around the Houston Metro with areas north of Conroe dipping into the
40s. Friday night is looking to be the chilliest night of the
stretch with the upper 40s creeping close to the Houston Metro area.

One thing that will be monitored over the next couple of days is the
possible moderate to strong winds Thursday and Friday. A large cut
off low develops across Appalachia by the end of the week with a
strong low level jet developing on the backside of the low (so
across east Texas). 850mb winds of 40 to 50kts across the area is
possible Thursday morning and around 30 to 40kts on Friday. If
these winds are able to mix down to the surface, then Wind
Advisories will be possible. If you have any outdoor Halloween
decorations (especially inflatables), you will want to make sure
they area secured.

Speaking of Halloween, still looking like great trick or treating
weather with high pressure overhead keeping conditions dry. An
increase in southerly flow will warm temperatures slightly compared
to the previous few evenings.

Fowler


.MARINE...

Patchy fog is possible this morning near the immediate coast and in
the Bays, but conditions will improve shortly after sunrise. There
will be increasing southerly flow on Tuesday to 15 - 20kts by sunset
and then to 25kts after midnight. Seas increase to 4 to 6ft Tuesday
night as well. An approaching cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms starting late Tuesday which will continue until the
frontal passage Wednesday afternoon. The front will usher in strong
northwesterly winds Wednesday through Friday. Small craft advisories
will be likely Tuesday night through Friday with some wind gusts
approaching Gale criteria Thursday night into Friday morning.

With the strong onshore flow on Tuesday, guidance is indicating high
tide Tuesday night to be around 3.5ft to 4ft above MLLW. Then with
the strong offshore flow behind the front, abnormally low tides will
be possible.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 91 70 87 68 78 / 0 0 10 40 80
Houston (IAH) 90 70 86 72 81 / 0 0 20 30 90
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 85 76 83 / 0 0 30 50 90

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Matagorda...Waller...Wharton.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.


&&

$$
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

SPC has introduced a slight chance of severe storms for day 3.For mainly damaging winds,something to keep an eye on.
day3otlk_0730.gif
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with wind damage and possibly a few
tornadoes are expected from Wednesday into Wednesday night from
parts of east and southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana to the
central Gulf Coast.

...Western and Central Gulf Coast Region...
At daybreak on Wednesday, an upper-level trough and an associated
cold front is forecast to be located across central and north Texas.
A line of thunderstorms associated with some potential for wind
damage should be ongoing ahead of the front. This convective line is
forecast to move into east and southeast Texas during the late
morning and early afternoon. Ahead of the line of storms, surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F should result in the
development of moderate instability from the central Texas Coast
northeastward into the Houston area. As instability increases some
during the afternoon, the southern end of the line is expected to
become reorganized with a squall-line developing and moving eastward
across the remainder of southeast Texas. The stronger embedded cells
within this line are expected to have a wind damage threat.
Low-level shear will also be strong and there will be potential for
a few tornadoes with supercells embedded in the line.


The northward extent of the severe threat is still somewhat in
question and will depend upon destabilization. If more instability
develops than is currently forecast, then a severe threat could
develop as far north as parts of northeast Texas and northern
Louisiana. This outlook keeps that area at a Marginal Risk for now
due to uncertainty.

The line of strong to severe storms is expected to continue moving
eastward across southern and central Louisiana during the evening,
reaching the central Gulf Coast sometime after midnight. A
wind-damage threat is forecast with this line but uncertainty still
exists concerning instability. A wind damage threat could continue
during the late evening and early overnight period if enough
instability can develop ahead of the squall-line.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2021
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

when will this weather be moving through Wed? I gotta flight at 6:40pm from bmt/dfw/omaha...
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 1:16 pm when will this weather be moving through Wed? I gotta flight at 6:40pm from bmt/dfw/omaha...
It should be out of the area by early afternoon.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot], Semrush [Bot] and 71 guests