October 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Iceresistance
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DoctorMu wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:05 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together🤣🤣😂
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.


Oops. :lol:
I remembered seeing that on S2K, after the Extreme Cold & Snow in February 2021, I was saying that the Weather pulled an Uno Reverso on the CPC & TWC. :lol:
Cpv17
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I wouldn’t worry about what any long range outlooks say. They most likely won’t pan out. Not wise to look at them unless you just take it with a grain of salt.
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Katdaddy
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Well stated Cpv17. I learned many years ago…..pre-Storm2K days at GoPbi in 1997 that a model run is not the answer. Multiple model runs with consistency and 3-5 days out is my focus now days. With that said, I am ready for the cold…..Fall front down here in W League City.
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Katdaddy
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And yes and long range forecast can and will change over time.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Bastardi? He's a lunatic, but occasionally right with an outside the box analysis or prediction.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?
Cromagnum
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It's beautiful in Savannah Georgia right now. Highs in mid 70s and lows in upper 40s at night. Beautiful vacation weather.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance his channel name is weatherman plus
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:10 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?
I don’t trust that Direct Weather guy at all. I really for the most part haven’t found any YouTube channels I trust for the weather.
Stratton20
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CPV17 pow ponder on weather is a good youtube channel, definitely very reliable, highly recommend checking him out
Iceresistance
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I don't know why I'm still subbed to Direct Weather, but they have changed A LOT since 2019, they have calmed down & has added a "Confidence Meter", which means the likelihood of the event being featured becoming reality.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:20 pm I wouldn’t worry about what any long range outlooks say. They most likely won’t pan out. Not wise to look at them unless you just take it with a grain of salt.
So very true.
redneckweather
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 pm DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time
Wow, I didn't know you had your own YouTube channel?!🤷‍♂️😁
Stratton20
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Redneckweather lol what? I dont have any youtube channels
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DoctorMu
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Models largely have warming weather this week and generally above average until near Halloween...then potentially cooler.

Yesterday and today have been Chamber of Commerce weather.
Iceresistance
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I do want to mention that California, Oregon, & Washington state are going to be whammered in the next 7 Days . . . :shock:

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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 190928
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
428 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021



.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday Night]...

Weak ridging still holding over SETX this morning with high
centered over MS/AL. Dry air over the region very slowly
moistening as light southeasterly flow increases today. Pacific
moisture spreading in from the southwest out of Mexico with the
upper flow spiraling into the low over UT. This upper level
moisture will be spreading eastward throughout the day so skies
should be partly to mostly cloudy though due mainly to the high
clouds and with only some shallow CU over the south. Temperatures
should rise quickly this morning from cool lows in 50s to the
upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. Will be watching the
development of weak circulation out in the Gulf near 26N/91W this
afternoon...models differ with the overall development there. NAM
and WRFs showing more development but early this morning the GFS
is probably starting off closer - further south with the
convection. This feature should drift west then will probably
weaken and fill Wednesday morning as it moves toward the coast
while the deeper moisture is steered into Louisiana. Rain chances
start to creep into the coastal waters from the east early
Wednesday morning and into the coastal areas mainly east of
Freeport up into the Galveston Bay area by around sunrise or
shortly after. As the moisture surges into LA the 850
temperatures/cap over SETX increases with rain chances shifting
east of the area Wednesday night. Upper flow should keep high
clouds flowing over the area throughout the short term. Overall
still pleasant fall weather though a little more humid and warmer.
45


.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

A relatively dry and warm period is expected Thursday and Friday.
Latest models continue to bring a weak cold front over
northwestern TX on Thursday. The boundary is expected to make
little if any progress southward and model consensus shows primary
boundary stalling north of Texas/Red River Valley through early
Friday, before retreating northward again in response to mid-upper
trough over the Great Lakes. With limited low-mid level moisture
and forcing over the region; any precipitation chances will be
minimal/limited. Have only included slight precipitation chances
over the Gulf waters and along the coast given persistent onshore
flow and pockets of PWATS in the 1 to 1.5 inch range.

The region will be positioned between a sfc trough over the
Central Plains and sfc high centered along the eastern coast this
weekend. This will lead to an increase in Gulf moisture along
with moderate (breezy) onshore flow. With that said, have kept low
PoPs Saturday into Sunday. Increasing WAA will also lead to
warmer and more humid conditions Friday into the end of the long-
term period with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above average.
That is, highs mainly from the mid to upper 80s and lows from the
upper 60s to low 70s.

Synoptic guidance diverges a bit by early next week, struggling
with the evolution of a sfc low and associated frontal boundary,
but precipitation chances look to increase towards the end of the
long-term period. 05

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. Some patchy fog/probably MIFG will be possible near LBX/CXO
Wednesday morning. Could have some patchy SCT/BKN020-025 clouds
near GLS after 09z Wednesday on the western edge of the slightly
richer moisture as low meanders and fills over the coastal
waters/Gulf waters. Winds will also become more variable depending
on the track of the filling low Wednesday morning. 45

&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate onshore flow and low seas are expected today. A
weak surface low over west/central Gulf will approach the Upper
TX tonight into Wednesday. This will bring the potential for SCEC
conditions, at least through Wednesday morning. Isolated showers
will be possible, mainly for the nearshore/offshore waters from
Freeport to High Island, including Galveston Bay. Building seas up
to 3 ft are also expected during this time frame, before
subsiding back to 1- 2 ft Wednesday afternoon into the end of the
week. The region will be positioned between a high pressure over
the eastern coast and a low pressure over the Central Plains this
weekend. This pattern will bring a tight pressure gradient over
the region, resulting in persistent moderate onshore flow. This
will result in isolated to scattered activity and periods of
elevated seas at times into early next week. 05


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 79 63 84 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 81 65 85 67 87 / 0 10 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 74 84 / 0 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...45
MARINE...05
Cpv17
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Back to the warm muggy weather for the next week. No rain chances worth talking about at the moment. Pretty boring weather pattern.
Stratton20
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CPV17 so pretty much boring weather for the rest of the month, long range models look meh, can we just skip to December please ? Haha
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