Page 5 of 13
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:36 am
by Cromagnum
Hopefully this slop on the way doesn't mess up my Southwest flight. They have enough problems blaming issues on fake weather without actual rain.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:53 am
by Kingwood36
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.
La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”
NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter
https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges
Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:59 am
by don
Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:54 am
by Pas_Bon
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:53 am
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.
La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”
NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter
https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges
Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:12 pm
by Stratton20
I suspect we will be in for a cold winter this season, at least the end of december- february, at least thats what I think and hope for
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:24 pm
by Iceresistance
Uh oh . . .
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:58 pm
by DoctorMu
don wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:59 am
Interesting looks like the storm complex held itself together. Models seem to have underestimated it. We'll have to keep an eye on the heavy rain starting to train along the 59 corridor.
I was a bit surprised. We receive 1.5 inches from the complex about 3 am. Really needed. Brown patch started appearing on Tuesday and I had put down some additional fungicide. It should be soaked into the topsoil and should be activated. Up here in CLL, you can't beat brown patch; you can only contain it!
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:00 pm
by DoctorMu
Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 11:54 am
Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:53 am
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has announced that a La Nina has developed and will extend through the second winter in a row.
La Nina is a natural ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator and is translated from Spanish as “little girl.”
NOAA CPC scientists have been tracking the potential development of this La Nina since this past summer, and it was a factor in the above-normal hurricane season forecast, which we have seen unfold. This La Nina is expected to last through early spring 2022. Here's the link for more information - ter
https://www.noaa.gov/news/double-dip-la-nina-emerges
Sooooooooo....what does this mean for our winter here?
Generally, it should equate to warmer and drier winters in our neck of the woods in Texas (as the jet stream typically hangs out far North of us); however, last winter was a "La Nina Winter" and we all remember what happened then. It was a rather stark anomaly, to be sure.
The only thing predictable about a La Nina winter in Texas - it that it is unpredictable!
Last year being a mega case in point!
Re: October 2021
Posted: Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
by Ptarmigan
This could get interesting.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:52 am
by Cromagnum
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:16 am
by Stratton20
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:30 am
by Iceresistance
No, this past Winter's forecasts was even worse, remember the February 2021 Forecast?
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:30 am
by Iceresistance
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:52 am
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:02 pm
This could get interesting.
Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?
Yes, that happened as well in February 2021
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
by weatherguy425
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.
Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.
EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm
by Stratton20
Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:28 pm
by weatherguy425
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:26 pm
Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing
And La Nina is only one factor, true.
But, be careful with “trusted Mets” on the Internet...
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm
by Stratton20
Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:23 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:37 pm
Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though
Yeah on crazy YT Weather Peoples, if I would post something like that, I would also note: "This is only 1 model run, it's likely going to not be there on the next run unless it starts to develop consistency."
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:05 pm
by DoctorMu
TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.
Oops.
Re: October 2021
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:07 pm
by DoctorMu
weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:17 pm
That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.
Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.
EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)
TBH, NOAA's long range predictions haven't been much better 3-5 day progs have been solid...and hurricane predictions.
