November 2021
There will be a lot of cold air building in our source region over the next couple weeks. We just need some mechanism to break off a piece of it and head south.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
CPV17 what kind of mechanism is needed to drive that cold air south into texas?
A negative EPO, a negative AO, a negative NAO, and a neutral PNA. Get all that timed together and we’d be in for something special. We need a lot of strong ridging up there to break zonal flow and create huge troughs.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 09, 2021 7:20 pm CPV17 what kind of mechanism is needed to drive that cold air south into texas?
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 Well hope we get that at some point in the coming weeks, I beed a good excuse to break out the hot chocolate haha
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
I'm not holding my breath
We'll be out of town in North Carolina during the only cool day - Saturday in the next week.
So tired to running A/C and watching Utility bills now surpass last year. We had a decent Fall for a change!
So tired to running A/C and watching Utility bills now surpass last year. We had a decent Fall for a change!
Canadian keeps it a little cooler Sun - Tue.
Mostly suckitude after that until Thanksgiving week.
Mostly suckitude after that until Thanksgiving week.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 101146
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
.AVIATION...
Some IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities across the area early this morning
will begin to improve after sunrise, and expecting mainly VFR conditions
to prevail later this morning and on into this afternoon while SE to
S winds increase to around 10 to 15 knots and become occasionally gusty.
There could be some SHRA in/around the coast this morning and then inland
this afternoon, but not confident enough at this time to mention for
inland sites. Winds decrease this evening and become a little more out
of the SW ahead of a cold front that will move through the area tomorrow
morning. Have -SHRA and MVFR ceilings for CLL and UTS and VCSH elsewhere
starting around 09/10Z. Current thinking is for the front and it`s wind
shift to the NW at CLL around 12/13Z, IAH around 16/17Z and GLS around
18/19Z. Look for SHRA and isolated TSRA to accompany the front. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Early morning satellite imagery has high clouds continuing to stream
into and across the area from the southwest. Low clouds and some fog
are found too, with the best concentration generally to the north of
the Interstate 10 corridor. Some low clouds are also developing near
and off the coast and are working their way inland. Radar imagery
has been indicating an occasional shower or two developing with the
cloud activity off the coast. Temperatures are ranging mainly from
the low to mid 60s inland (with light southeast winds) to the low
70s at the coast (with southeast winds 5 to 10 mph).
For today, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with increasing
south to southeast winds as a result of a tightening pressure
gradient between high pressure off to our east and deepening low
pressure off to our northwest. Some showers will be possible too as
moisture levels rise. High temperatures will range from the upper
70s (near/around and to the east of the I-45 corridor) to the lower
80s (near/around and to the west of the I-45 corridor). Better
shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (higher across our northern
areas and lower across our southwest areas) are expected late
tonight through tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into and
through the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s/lower
60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast. Winds will be shifting to
the northwest then north behind the front that should be moving into
the northern areas around sunrise and off the coast around noon.
Look for the rains to come to an end generally from the northwest to
southeast as the day progresses. High temperatures should range from
the low to mid 70s to around 80.
It will be clear and cooler Thursday night with decreasing northeast
winds. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the lower
60s at the coast. 42
LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...
Sfc high pressure quickly builds in behind the front, leading to
dry conditions and northerly winds by Friday. Weak CAA filters in
behind front with 850 mb temperatures ranging between 10-13 C.
Therefore, a big change in temperatures is not anticipated. Highs
will climb from the mid to upper 70s.
A secondary upper-level trough will develop on the backside of
the strong upper-level low moving across the Great Lakes region.
This trough will drag a weak cold front across the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday. Moisture is very meager with this
boundary with PWATs running less than an inch; therefore, this
front will only bring breezy conditions (mainly across the coastal
zones) and a reinforcing surge of colder air. Lows will drop into
the upper 30s to low 50s early Saturday morning. Saturday`s highs
will generally be in the 60s to near 70.
The main forecast challenge for the second half of the long term
period will be winds. Deterministic models still differ on the
evolution and strength of another weak and dry cold front (wind
shift) expected to arrive early Monday. As of now, have leaned
towards a warmer solution and have temperatures a few degrees
warmer than NBM guidance after Sunday. Return flow from the
departing sfc high will bring slightly warmer conditions on
Sunday. Despite the arrival of the possible next front early
Monday, east to southeast flow quickly settles in by Monday
afternoon, resulting in slight warmer temperatures. Precipitation
is not expected through most of the period.
05
AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Patchy dense fog and low clouds have brought LIFR to IFR
conditions at CXO and UTS, and these conditions will continue
through the night. SCT to BKN clouds around 500 to 700ft will be
possible at CLL, IAH, HOU, and LBX through sunrise. Patchy fog
will also be possible at LBX. Clouds should lift and scatter out
through the mid morning to between 1500 to 3000ft. Light south-
southeasterly flow will continue through the night and then pick
up during the day between 10 and 15kts with gusts to 20kts. Slight
reduction of wind speeds after sunset, but will remain between 5
and 7kts through Thursday morning.
Some scattered streamer showers are possible at GLS in the
afternoon, so added in a VCSH beginning at 19z. Have kept the
mention of VCSH at the other sites out for now, but some guidance
has been showing increased shower activity between Harris County
up through Walker County during the afternoon due to some low
level convergence. Will continue to monitor the forecast to see if
we need to add some VCSH wording to IAH, CXO, SGR, HOU, and UTS.
Fowler
MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected today as pressure
gradient gradually tighten due to a low pressure system over
western TX. This will result in isolated showers and storms today.
SCEC conditions might be needed this evening. A cold front is
expected to move over the coastal waters late Thursday morning
resulting in offshore flow and isolated to scattered showers and
storms ahead and along the boundary. Seas will remain from 2- 4 ft
through Friday. A secondary and stronger front will move into the
coastal waters Friday into Saturday, bringing gusty offshore flow
and elevated seas (up to 6 ft offhsore). SCA will be required
through this timeframe. Light to moderate flow are expected Sunday
into early next week with generally onshore flow. The exception
will be late Sunday into early Monday as another weak cold front
moves through.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 60 74 47 74 / 10 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 64 78 51 76 / 20 30 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 78 64 75 / 20 30 30 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 101146
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
546 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
.AVIATION...
Some IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibilities across the area early this morning
will begin to improve after sunrise, and expecting mainly VFR conditions
to prevail later this morning and on into this afternoon while SE to
S winds increase to around 10 to 15 knots and become occasionally gusty.
There could be some SHRA in/around the coast this morning and then inland
this afternoon, but not confident enough at this time to mention for
inland sites. Winds decrease this evening and become a little more out
of the SW ahead of a cold front that will move through the area tomorrow
morning. Have -SHRA and MVFR ceilings for CLL and UTS and VCSH elsewhere
starting around 09/10Z. Current thinking is for the front and it`s wind
shift to the NW at CLL around 12/13Z, IAH around 16/17Z and GLS around
18/19Z. Look for SHRA and isolated TSRA to accompany the front. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CST Wed Nov 10 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...
Early morning satellite imagery has high clouds continuing to stream
into and across the area from the southwest. Low clouds and some fog
are found too, with the best concentration generally to the north of
the Interstate 10 corridor. Some low clouds are also developing near
and off the coast and are working their way inland. Radar imagery
has been indicating an occasional shower or two developing with the
cloud activity off the coast. Temperatures are ranging mainly from
the low to mid 60s inland (with light southeast winds) to the low
70s at the coast (with southeast winds 5 to 10 mph).
For today, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies with increasing
south to southeast winds as a result of a tightening pressure
gradient between high pressure off to our east and deepening low
pressure off to our northwest. Some showers will be possible too as
moisture levels rise. High temperatures will range from the upper
70s (near/around and to the east of the I-45 corridor) to the lower
80s (near/around and to the west of the I-45 corridor). Better
shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (higher across our northern
areas and lower across our southwest areas) are expected late
tonight through tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into and
through the area. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s/lower
60s inland to the upper 60s at the coast. Winds will be shifting to
the northwest then north behind the front that should be moving into
the northern areas around sunrise and off the coast around noon.
Look for the rains to come to an end generally from the northwest to
southeast as the day progresses. High temperatures should range from
the low to mid 70s to around 80.
It will be clear and cooler Thursday night with decreasing northeast
winds. Lows will range from the mid to upper 40s inland to the lower
60s at the coast. 42
LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...
Sfc high pressure quickly builds in behind the front, leading to
dry conditions and northerly winds by Friday. Weak CAA filters in
behind front with 850 mb temperatures ranging between 10-13 C.
Therefore, a big change in temperatures is not anticipated. Highs
will climb from the mid to upper 70s.
A secondary upper-level trough will develop on the backside of
the strong upper-level low moving across the Great Lakes region.
This trough will drag a weak cold front across the southern Plains
late Friday into Saturday. Moisture is very meager with this
boundary with PWATs running less than an inch; therefore, this
front will only bring breezy conditions (mainly across the coastal
zones) and a reinforcing surge of colder air. Lows will drop into
the upper 30s to low 50s early Saturday morning. Saturday`s highs
will generally be in the 60s to near 70.
The main forecast challenge for the second half of the long term
period will be winds. Deterministic models still differ on the
evolution and strength of another weak and dry cold front (wind
shift) expected to arrive early Monday. As of now, have leaned
towards a warmer solution and have temperatures a few degrees
warmer than NBM guidance after Sunday. Return flow from the
departing sfc high will bring slightly warmer conditions on
Sunday. Despite the arrival of the possible next front early
Monday, east to southeast flow quickly settles in by Monday
afternoon, resulting in slight warmer temperatures. Precipitation
is not expected through most of the period.
05
AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
Patchy dense fog and low clouds have brought LIFR to IFR
conditions at CXO and UTS, and these conditions will continue
through the night. SCT to BKN clouds around 500 to 700ft will be
possible at CLL, IAH, HOU, and LBX through sunrise. Patchy fog
will also be possible at LBX. Clouds should lift and scatter out
through the mid morning to between 1500 to 3000ft. Light south-
southeasterly flow will continue through the night and then pick
up during the day between 10 and 15kts with gusts to 20kts. Slight
reduction of wind speeds after sunset, but will remain between 5
and 7kts through Thursday morning.
Some scattered streamer showers are possible at GLS in the
afternoon, so added in a VCSH beginning at 19z. Have kept the
mention of VCSH at the other sites out for now, but some guidance
has been showing increased shower activity between Harris County
up through Walker County during the afternoon due to some low
level convergence. Will continue to monitor the forecast to see if
we need to add some VCSH wording to IAH, CXO, SGR, HOU, and UTS.
Fowler
MARINE...
Light to moderate onshore flow is expected today as pressure
gradient gradually tighten due to a low pressure system over
western TX. This will result in isolated showers and storms today.
SCEC conditions might be needed this evening. A cold front is
expected to move over the coastal waters late Thursday morning
resulting in offshore flow and isolated to scattered showers and
storms ahead and along the boundary. Seas will remain from 2- 4 ft
through Friday. A secondary and stronger front will move into the
coastal waters Friday into Saturday, bringing gusty offshore flow
and elevated seas (up to 6 ft offhsore). SCA will be required
through this timeframe. Light to moderate flow are expected Sunday
into early next week with generally onshore flow. The exception
will be late Sunday into early Monday as another weak cold front
moves through.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 60 74 47 74 / 10 30 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 64 78 51 76 / 20 30 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 77 69 78 64 75 / 20 30 30 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
I’m enjoying this fine November weather. Not too hot….not too cold. Could use a rain refresher but other than that, it’s all good.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 102138
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Onshore winds have strengthened this afternoon (per the tightening
surface gradient) with gusts up to 20kts being reported. This per-
sistent and strong WAA will keep warm/humid conditions in place a-
cross SE TX tonight. This pattern also means isolated showers will
also continue to develop this evening...but with a slightly better
chance (but still low, around 20%) overnight/around sunrise. MinTs
should range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south/coast.
The main forecast issue for the short term looks to be the passage
of the cold front tomorrow. While near term models have been drier
(only a skinny line of showers/isolated thunderstorms with FROPA),
the QPF from global models are hinting at a bit more coverage. Per
timing issues (as 12Z guidance is trending a little slower), prob-
ably not going to make any changes on that. However, did tweak POP
numbers up a bit for tomorrow (with the better chances over the NE
and E portions of the area). The front should be moving off/out of
the CWA just after noon with rain chances/clouds decreasing by the
latter part of the afternoon. Highs tomorrow wil be in the 70s. As
north winds/CAA develops across the region behind the front, drier
and cooler weather to prevail tomorrow night. Lows will range from
the mid/upper 40s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Into early next week, the upper pattern will mainly consist of
broad troffiness across the eastern part of the country and
ridging across Mexico into the Desert Southwest...resulting in a
dry nw flow aloft locally.
Look for a reinforcing, slightly stronger front (compared to
the one on Thursday) to move across the area on Friday. This will
provide another string of excellent wx thru the weekend with
mclear skies, cool temps at night and mild temps during the day.
Onshore flow resumes Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to
the east. It`ll take the atmosphere a while to modify, but expect
a gradual increase in temps/moisture heading into midweek ahead
of the next front currently penciled in for Nov 18. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are expected tonight. Speeds may flirt with
caution criteria for a 3-6 hour timeframe overnight in the Gulf,
but will taper off heading into sunrise. Light to moderate sw
winds in the morning will gradually veer around to the west &
northwest during the afternoon as a cold front moves into the
waters. A secondary, but stronger front is expected during the day
Friday and Small Craft Advisories will likely be required Friday
night. Onshore flow will resume Sunday and gradually increase
heading into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 74 48 75 43 / 60 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 65 78 51 77 48 / 30 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 78 64 76 56 / 10 50 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 102138
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
338 PM CST Wed Nov 10 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Onshore winds have strengthened this afternoon (per the tightening
surface gradient) with gusts up to 20kts being reported. This per-
sistent and strong WAA will keep warm/humid conditions in place a-
cross SE TX tonight. This pattern also means isolated showers will
also continue to develop this evening...but with a slightly better
chance (but still low, around 20%) overnight/around sunrise. MinTs
should range from the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south/coast.
The main forecast issue for the short term looks to be the passage
of the cold front tomorrow. While near term models have been drier
(only a skinny line of showers/isolated thunderstorms with FROPA),
the QPF from global models are hinting at a bit more coverage. Per
timing issues (as 12Z guidance is trending a little slower), prob-
ably not going to make any changes on that. However, did tweak POP
numbers up a bit for tomorrow (with the better chances over the NE
and E portions of the area). The front should be moving off/out of
the CWA just after noon with rain chances/clouds decreasing by the
latter part of the afternoon. Highs tomorrow wil be in the 70s. As
north winds/CAA develops across the region behind the front, drier
and cooler weather to prevail tomorrow night. Lows will range from
the mid/upper 40s inland to the lower 60s at the coast. 41
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Into early next week, the upper pattern will mainly consist of
broad troffiness across the eastern part of the country and
ridging across Mexico into the Desert Southwest...resulting in a
dry nw flow aloft locally.
Look for a reinforcing, slightly stronger front (compared to
the one on Thursday) to move across the area on Friday. This will
provide another string of excellent wx thru the weekend with
mclear skies, cool temps at night and mild temps during the day.
Onshore flow resumes Sunday as surface high pressure moves off to
the east. It`ll take the atmosphere a while to modify, but expect
a gradual increase in temps/moisture heading into midweek ahead
of the next front currently penciled in for Nov 18. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore winds are expected tonight. Speeds may flirt with
caution criteria for a 3-6 hour timeframe overnight in the Gulf,
but will taper off heading into sunrise. Light to moderate sw
winds in the morning will gradually veer around to the west &
northwest during the afternoon as a cold front moves into the
waters. A secondary, but stronger front is expected during the day
Friday and Small Craft Advisories will likely be required Friday
night. Onshore flow will resume Sunday and gradually increase
heading into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 74 48 75 43 / 60 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 65 78 51 77 48 / 30 50 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 78 64 76 56 / 10 50 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 111129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
.AVIATION...
Cold front and accompanying SHRA/TSRA approaching CXO at 11Z will continue
working their way southward and eastward across the area this morning
with the boundary expected to be near or off the coast before 18Z. TAFs
ahead of the front will have SHRA/TSRA along with some wind gusts and
low ceilings while TAFs behind the front will show gradual clearing.
VFR tonight through Friday morning with decreasing N to NE winds. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will be moving
across Southeast Texas this morning, generally from north to south,
and all activity is expected to be off the coast this afternoon.
Rainfall totals will likely end up around 1/4 inch or less for most
locations, but isolated higher amounts will be likely with any of
the stronger activity (highest amounts will probably end up across
parts of our north and northeast counties). The area will clear out
behind the front, and this will help to allow daytime highs to range
from the low 70s well inland to close to 80 down south. With clear
skies overnight, look for lows tonight to range from the low to mid
40s inland to the low 60s at the coast. A reinforcing cold front
will be moving through the area on Friday with a northwest flow
aloft in place, but cooler temperatures will not be felt from this
front until Friday night. Expect highs on Friday to warm back up
into the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and a few spots down
to the south and southwest could get close to 80. High pressure
beginning to build into the state on Friday night will set the stage
for a cooler weekend. Under clear skies, we`ll start it off with low
temperatures Friday night ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s
inland to the low to mid 50s at the coast. 42
LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...
Saturday will start off chilly as northerly flow continues to
bring a colder and drier airmass. It will be the coolest day of
the long term period with daytime highs only reaching the 60s.
Sunny skies, light north winds and sfc dewpoints in the 30s will
make it a beautiful day.
Easterly to southeasterly flow will quickly resume Saturday night
as the sfc high pressure moves to the east. This pattern will
bring slightly warmer conditions for Sunday. A gradual warming
trend is anticipated for the upcoming week with a modest increase
in low to mid level moisture by mid-week. As of now, the next
chance for precipitation looks possible Wednesday and Thursday
with the arrival of a warm front and a stronger surge of WAA. The
main weather feature will be breezy to windy conditions,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast area will be
positioned between a high pressure to our east and a low pressure
system to our west (southern Rockies/Plains), resulting in a tight
pressure gradient over TX.
05
MARINE...
A cold front will move into the coastal waters late this
morning/early this afternoon, bringing moderate west to northwest
flow this afternoon, transitioning to the northeast tonight.
Isolated showers and storms are expected along the boundary. A
secondary stronger and dry front is expected to move over the
coastal waters by Friday afternoon, bringing gusty offshore flow
and elevated seas through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be required through this timeframe. Light to moderate
onshore flow will resume Saturday night into next week, becoming
moderate to strong by midweek.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 46 75 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 51 77 48 66 / 50 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 64 75 56 66 / 50 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 111129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
.AVIATION...
Cold front and accompanying SHRA/TSRA approaching CXO at 11Z will continue
working their way southward and eastward across the area this morning
with the boundary expected to be near or off the coast before 18Z. TAFs
ahead of the front will have SHRA/TSRA along with some wind gusts and
low ceilings while TAFs behind the front will show gradual clearing.
VFR tonight through Friday morning with decreasing N to NE winds. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021/
SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...
Cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will be moving
across Southeast Texas this morning, generally from north to south,
and all activity is expected to be off the coast this afternoon.
Rainfall totals will likely end up around 1/4 inch or less for most
locations, but isolated higher amounts will be likely with any of
the stronger activity (highest amounts will probably end up across
parts of our north and northeast counties). The area will clear out
behind the front, and this will help to allow daytime highs to range
from the low 70s well inland to close to 80 down south. With clear
skies overnight, look for lows tonight to range from the low to mid
40s inland to the low 60s at the coast. A reinforcing cold front
will be moving through the area on Friday with a northwest flow
aloft in place, but cooler temperatures will not be felt from this
front until Friday night. Expect highs on Friday to warm back up
into the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and a few spots down
to the south and southwest could get close to 80. High pressure
beginning to build into the state on Friday night will set the stage
for a cooler weekend. Under clear skies, we`ll start it off with low
temperatures Friday night ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s
inland to the low to mid 50s at the coast. 42
LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday Night]...
Saturday will start off chilly as northerly flow continues to
bring a colder and drier airmass. It will be the coolest day of
the long term period with daytime highs only reaching the 60s.
Sunny skies, light north winds and sfc dewpoints in the 30s will
make it a beautiful day.
Easterly to southeasterly flow will quickly resume Saturday night
as the sfc high pressure moves to the east. This pattern will
bring slightly warmer conditions for Sunday. A gradual warming
trend is anticipated for the upcoming week with a modest increase
in low to mid level moisture by mid-week. As of now, the next
chance for precipitation looks possible Wednesday and Thursday
with the arrival of a warm front and a stronger surge of WAA. The
main weather feature will be breezy to windy conditions,
especially Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast area will be
positioned between a high pressure to our east and a low pressure
system to our west (southern Rockies/Plains), resulting in a tight
pressure gradient over TX.
05
MARINE...
A cold front will move into the coastal waters late this
morning/early this afternoon, bringing moderate west to northwest
flow this afternoon, transitioning to the northeast tonight.
Isolated showers and storms are expected along the boundary. A
secondary stronger and dry front is expected to move over the
coastal waters by Friday afternoon, bringing gusty offshore flow
and elevated seas through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories will
likely be required through this timeframe. Light to moderate
onshore flow will resume Saturday night into next week, becoming
moderate to strong by midweek.
05
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 46 75 43 65 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 77 51 77 48 66 / 50 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 64 75 56 66 / 50 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
"Cold front" blew through...brrrrrrrr..
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4246
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
This front was so insignificant that i even forgot it passed through my area 
We managed .60” with a nice lightning show this morning. Just what we needed. Looks like a string of nice weather ahead. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Nov 11, 2021 10:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
While it last? Doesn't look like anything interesting in the near future lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4471
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 111742
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
.SHORT TERM UPDATE [This Afternoon]...
The line of showers/thunderstorms associated with a cold front has
moved off the coast (along with the front itself). But before this
line moved out, there were reports of fairly strong winds and wind
gusts in and around Galveston Bay. Otherwise, we`ll be looking for
skies to continue to clear (or move E/SE) through the rest of this
afternoon. 41
Daytime highs to range from the low 70s well inland to close to
80 down south. With clear skies overnight, look for lows tonight
to range from the low to mid 40s inland to the low 60s at the
coast. A reinforcing cold front will be moving through the area on
Friday with a northwest flow aloft in place, but cooler
temperatures will not be felt from this front until Friday night.
Expect highs on Friday to warm back up into the low to mid 70s for
much of the area, and a few spots down to the south and southwest
could get close to 80. High pressure beginning to build into the
state on Friday night will set the stage for a cooler weekend.
Under clear skies, we`ll start it off with low temperatures Friday
night ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s inland to the low to
mid 50s at the coast. 42
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Precipitation has ended across inland areas, but lingering MVFR
CIGS will be slower to erode for some terminals (especially the
southern ones). But will be expecting clouds to continue moving
E/SE the next few hours with SKC prevailing areawide by 21Z (or
so). Otherwise, VFR overnight with northerly winds decreasing a
bit before the wind direction shifts E/SE as another cold front
moves down into the FA during the afternoon tomorrow. No chance
of rain with this re-enforcing shot of cool/dry air. 41
&&
FXUS64 KHGX 111742
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1142 AM CST Thu Nov 11 2021
.SHORT TERM UPDATE [This Afternoon]...
The line of showers/thunderstorms associated with a cold front has
moved off the coast (along with the front itself). But before this
line moved out, there were reports of fairly strong winds and wind
gusts in and around Galveston Bay. Otherwise, we`ll be looking for
skies to continue to clear (or move E/SE) through the rest of this
afternoon. 41
Daytime highs to range from the low 70s well inland to close to
80 down south. With clear skies overnight, look for lows tonight
to range from the low to mid 40s inland to the low 60s at the
coast. A reinforcing cold front will be moving through the area on
Friday with a northwest flow aloft in place, but cooler
temperatures will not be felt from this front until Friday night.
Expect highs on Friday to warm back up into the low to mid 70s for
much of the area, and a few spots down to the south and southwest
could get close to 80. High pressure beginning to build into the
state on Friday night will set the stage for a cooler weekend.
Under clear skies, we`ll start it off with low temperatures Friday
night ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s inland to the low to
mid 50s at the coast. 42
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Precipitation has ended across inland areas, but lingering MVFR
CIGS will be slower to erode for some terminals (especially the
southern ones). But will be expecting clouds to continue moving
E/SE the next few hours with SKC prevailing areawide by 21Z (or
so). Otherwise, VFR overnight with northerly winds decreasing a
bit before the wind direction shifts E/SE as another cold front
moves down into the FA during the afternoon tomorrow. No chance
of rain with this re-enforcing shot of cool/dry air. 41
&&
The "cold front" blew through and yet its still 75 degrees (80 degrees near the coast). What a joke.
-
redneckweather
- Posts: 1022
- Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2010 7:29 pm
- Location: Montgomery, Texas
- Contact:
A nice 40 degrees this morning up here near Lake Conroe with highs topping out around 74 with a re-enforcing shot of cold air later today and into tomorrow. Then another front mid next week to keep things nice and seasonal around here. I see a good front around Thanksgiving as well which would be a great! So far a great start to November.
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
That's a bit to far out to have any confidence in a "good front around Thanksgiving"redneckweather wrote: ↑Fri Nov 12, 2021 9:29 am A nice 40 degrees this morning up here near Lake Conroe with highs topping out around 74 with a re-enforcing shot of cold air later today and into tomorrow. Then another front mid next week to keep things nice and seasonal around here. I see a good front around Thanksgiving as well which would be a great! So far a great start to November.