November 2021

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yup, this is going to keep going back and forth over the coming days

[DoctorMu]

Am I crazy or have we actually had decent fall weather this year? We live in Southeast Texas, we’re gonna have warm days in fall and winter.

I completely agree. Been a pretty normal fall to me so far.

I've seen worse. Warmer than last Fall in CLL, but cooler than 3 years ago. Temps in the 80s getting old in mid Nov.

[Cpv17]

Am I crazy or have we actually had decent fall weather this year? We live in Southeast Texas, we’re gonna have warm days in fall and winter.

I completely agree. Been a pretty normal fall to me so far.

I've seen worse. Warmer than last Fall in CLL, but cooler than 3 years ago. Temps in the 80s getting old in mid Nov.

The weather has been pretty great to me honestly. I have no complaints. Been getting some decent rains too. Temps here have mostly been in the 60’s and 70’s for highs this month. A couple of low 80’s but no big deal.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151012
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
412 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...

Warming and increasingly humid conditions will be on tap through the
short term as the surface high continues to slowly shift east and an
onshore flow prevails Patchy fog this morning is having a tough time
getting situated despite the low T/Td spreads...most likely due to a
lingering elevated SW flow just above the surface. However, if we do
get any development these next few hours, will expect it to burn off
quickly (by mid morning or so). With mostly sunny skies across SE TX
this afternoon, forecast highs are going warm into the lower 80s.

Little change in the overall pattern is progged for tonight and will
be expecting another round of patchy for overnight into early tomor-
row morning. Lows should range from the upper 50s and lower 60s over
much of the CWFA (upper 60s at the immediate coast). Persistent S/SE
winds and mostly clear skies will help to warm things a bit more for
tomorrow/tomorrow night: highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low-
er to mid 60s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Wednesday will be our last warm day of the week with high temperatures
mainly in the low to mid 80s inland and in the upper 70s to around 80
at the coast (normals highs for November 17th are in the low 70s). The
south winds that have been in place since the start of the week will
be decreasing as the day progresses due to a weakening pressure gradient
in associated with the next front. There will be a chance for some showers
and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday morning
as the cold front moves across the area. Low temperatures Thursday morning
are expected to range from the low to mid 50s well inland to the low
to mid 60s at the coast, and breezy/gusty north winds and lingering
cloud cover behind the front will support Thursday`s highs to only peak
in the low to mid 60s well inland and into the low 70s near and along
the coast. Strong high pressure building across the state in the wake
of the front will support cool night (lows in the 40s/50s) and mild
days (highs in the 60s/70s) Friday and Saturday. The high will be moving
off to the east over the weekend and this will allow for onshore winds
and increasing moisture levels to come back to the area. For now, carrying
low rain chances late Saturday night through Sunday, and the Sunday/Monday
time period could end up being wetter (and needed higher rain chances)
as the next disturbance and associated cold front move across the area.
Once this system does get on through, look for cooler temperatures to
return to the area. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Light south winds and low seas can be expected today. This onshore flow
will gradually strengthen Tuesday and Wednesday leading to building
seas. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this
timeframe. A cold front with accompanying showers and possible thunderstorms
will be crossing the waters late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.
Moderate to strong north to northeast winds can be expected in the wake
of the front. Gradually decreasing winds that will become more east
to southeast along with lowering seas are anticipated from the end of
the week and on through the weekend. 42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

We`ll likely be dealing with some patchy fog at the start of the 12Z
package...especially for our usual spots. But with a slightly elevat-
ed SW flow just above the surface, will be expecting any/all develop-
ment to burn off quickly. While VFR conditions are set to prevail by
this afternoon, forecast soundings are hinting at possible BKN035 to
BKN040 CIGS. But at any rate, the main issue looks to be the reform-
ation of patchy fog tonight/early tomorrow morning. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 59 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 61 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 68 78 71 78 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[tireman4]

Euro 12 Z

[tireman4]

Euro 2 m Temperature

[tireman4]

GFS Total Snowfall

[sambucol]

Looks good! What are our high temps along the Houston Galveston area for those days?

[Stratton20]

Lol that was yesterday’s GFS run, the 12z run has dropped all of that

[Kingwood36]

[jasons2k]

I think the weather is great. I don’t mind the 80’s (surprise surprise). Beats being in the 40’s with depressing gray overcast drizzle and a stiff north wind.

Looks like another cool down Wednesday night to refresh things again. Nothing too cold. Another great weekend ahead too. Hopefully a shot of rain with the front. Great fall weather along the Gulf Coast.

[Stratton20]

I think we will see some arctic air in the next 10 days, models have been absolutely garbage handling the cold air that isexpected to enter the us late next week, the warm biacy of the GFS continues, Euro has been inconsistent but now the CMC is showing a cold blast at day 10

[Iceresistance]

The PNA is giving the models fits, literally.

[Kingwood36]

I think the weather is great. I don’t mind the 80’s (surprise surprise). Beats being in the 40’s with depressing gray overcast drizzle and a stiff north wind.

Looks like another cool down Wednesday night to refresh things again. Nothing too cold. Another great weekend ahead too. Hopefully a shot of rain with the front. Great fall weather along the Gulf Coast.

40s with gray overcast skies are awesome especially in winter..makes it feel and look like winter

[Cpv17]

The PNA is giving the models fits, literally.

There’s plenty of cold air to be found right now. Unfortunately, the PNA is working against us. Things look very cold for the east. Seasonal around here.

[Stratton20]

Just wait, I bet the models are going to shift that cold air back towards us, 10 days out so definitely lots will change, not aold on the east push of the cold air especially since the 12z CMC and Euro are more to the west

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151900
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
100 PM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR to start off this afternoon with SSW 6-12kts (G to 18 at
times closer to the LLJ in the NW areas). Winds overnight relax
and expect patchy fog to develop mainly over the more rural areas
after 05z.

MVFR/IFR ceilings will be expanding southwestward from eastern TX
and from the Hill Country southeastward 06-11z and may reach IAH
but at this point not confident enough to bring in the MVFR/IFR
conditions to IAH.

SSW winds increase quickly Tuesday over the southwest/western
areas and by late morning will likely be approaching 10 knots out
of the south.
45

[Kingwood36]

Pretty warm today

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 it was 82 here today in College Station, absolutely disgusting weather

[Iceresistance]

Kingwood36 it was 82 here today in College Station, absolutely disgusting weather

I'm expecting 77 Tomorrow, then the Cold Front is like "BE GONE!"