November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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I'm now expecting highs near 80 today
Cromagnum
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:cry: Record highs expected today...
Kingwood36
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Cromagnum wrote: Tue Nov 16, 2021 8:54 am :cry: Record highs expected today...
Gotta love it😒 well atleast a couple "cool" fronts are coming so it should make it atleast comfortable around here
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 160959
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
359 AM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday]...
Warm/humid conditions will continue today through tomorrow/Weds with
onshore winds deepening in response to high pressure to our east and
low pressure deepening over the Southern Plains. We could see an iso-
lated shower or two this morning, but the main issue should be areas
of patchy ground fog. All of this is expected to burn off later this
morning. S/SE winds will begin picking up this afternoon with higher
gusts possible. High temperatures today will be in the lower 80s.

With winds progged to remain somewhat elevated tonight, we`ll likely
see more low clouds vs fog develop overnight/early tomorrow morning.
The strengthening/persistent WAA could also allow for a few more iso-
lated showers early tomorrow morning...especially over coastal areas
in/around Matagorda Bay. Lows will range from the lower/mid 60s over
most inland locations...around 70 at the immediate coast.

Tomorrow/Weds is forecast to be a lot like today but slightly warmer
as highs climb into the lower and mid 80s. Insolation via the strong
cap and moderate/strong onshore winds continuing across the CWA will
keep POPs on the low side. But as the next cold front begins pushing
into the state towards SE TX late tomorrow afternoon/night, this cap
will be slowly eroding and we could see a skinny line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop along this boundary. Models are keep-
ing with the general timing of FROPA at our northern counties around
midnight and then off the coast around sunrise Thurs. As such, MinTs
for tomorrow night will be a little tricky. For now, have gone close
to NBM with lows ranging from the lower 50s north, mid/upper 50s for
the central CWA and lower 60s at the coast. A much cooler/drier air-
mass will be filtering into the region Thurs with highs in the upper
60s and lower 70s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Temps will fall into the 40s Thurs night in the wake of the front
and highs in the 60s Fri. Expect a gradual warming/moistening trend
this weekend as surface high pressure tracks eastward and a llvl
southerly flow resumes. H5 ridge expands northward from Mexico
into the Desert Southwest and trof digs southeast from the Midwest
down the east coast this weekend into early next week. Our next
frontal passage is penciled in for late Sunday or early Monday.
There should be a bit more moisture to work with compared to
Thursday`s front and would anticipate some sct precip in advance
of the boundary (though nothing points to much of significance at
this point). 47

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore winds will gradually strengthen into midweek leading to
building seas. Might need the caution flags tonight in the Gulf
waters. A cold front will push off the coast Thursday morning
followed by moderate north and northeast winds into Friday
morning. Winds and seas will decrease Friday and return to an
onshore direction this weekend as high pressure moves off to the
east. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
We`ll likely be dealing with some patchy fog at the start of the 12Z
package...especially for our usual spots. But with a slightly elevat-
ed southerly flow just above the surface...will be expecting any/all
development to burn off quickly. While VFR conditions to prevail for
this afternoon with wind gusts up to 20kts possible. With the strong
to moderate winds persisting, we`ll likely see lower CIGS versus VIS
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Some very isolated WAA SHRAs develop-
ing over the Gulf waters could affect coastal terminals, but chances
are too low for any mention at this time. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 63 82 53 65 / 0 10 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 81 64 81 59 69 / 0 0 0 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 71 78 65 73 / 0 0 10 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
Stratton20
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12z CMC has shifted the arctic air back to the west into Texas, meanwhile the GFS continues its typical trash warm biacy, think its time for a model upgrade
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don
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Very early so alot will change,but we may have a stormy Thanksgiving/Black Friday this year.Models are picking up on a potent pacific system,digging south and moving across the state.Could be a heavy rain/severe weather threat around here(any frozen precip if any would stay far off to the north from us,as the pacific air mass looks to be too warm to support anything frozen down here.).Just something to watch for now.
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tireman4
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XUS64 KHGX 161824
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1224 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Cloud streets galore this afternoon as low levels have continued
to moisten and winds have increased into the 8-14g10-23kt range.
VFR for now and should continue through 04z then with lighter
southerly flow still in place should start to see some stratus
formation over the western areas and also north and east of
Galveston Bay. This stratus deck will probably fill in abruptly
after 09z and CIGS of 900-1500 should be prevailing or at least
tempo through around 14z. Gusty winds again and slower rise in
cloud bases after 14z than was the case this morning.

45
&&
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tireman4
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6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
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6 10 day Precipitation Outlook.png
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DoctorMu
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The temperature reached 82°F in College Station. Fortunately, some drier air filtered down and the evening is comfortable with breezy conditions. The breeze picks up tomorrow: 20 G30 as a dry front approaches the area. Cool, sunny, and and breezy on Thursday leading to mild weekend. Abundant sunshine throughout.

Hoping for a frost sooner, rather than later, to "paint it brown." Brown patch has enveloped the front lawn anyway, despite 3 treatments of fungicide.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Nov 16, 2021 6:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021

.AVIATION [00Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Gusty southerly winds will relax a bit this evening into tonight
but will still remain rather breezy with speeds varying between 5
to 10 KTS. Though no fog is expected to develop overnight across
SE Texas, MVFR cigs are possible, which will gradually lift
during the morning hours on Wed. Winds will pick up again Wed
morning, with gusts near 20KTS again in the afternoon hours. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST Tue Nov 16 2021/

SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

WAA pattern firmly in place and so anticipate temperatures to be few
degrees warmer overnight than last night and with a little better
mixing over night to boot. Stratus should develop over and around
the area mainly after midnight peaking in coverage around sunrise.
The clouds should be slower to lift and mix out than was the case
today and rising steadily while also having a warmer start to the
day. Temperatures through the afternoon hours Wednesday should be 2
to 3 degrees warmer with gusty conditions again. Rain chances look
slim Wednesday morning and afternoon but will be increasing going
into the evening hours.

Upper trough dropping southeast through the Plains will be moving
across OK Wednesday night this will bring weak lift into SETX but it
is somewhat offset from the typical fusion of the subtropical/polar
jet and this has led to lowering the rain chances slightly. PW does
climb to around 1.1-1.2" but with capping with a 10-12C warm nose at
850 still parked over SETX as the front comes through overnight.
The
overnight period also in a minima for instability. Timing of the
associated cold front should be into College Station area around
midnight...Houston by around 4-5 am and off the coast 6-8 am.
Moderate northerly flow in the wake of the front will usher in drier
air but the 850mb front looks to be starting to apply the brakes by
sunrise even though it should continue to sag southward.

45

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

A mostly dry, weak cold front will be pushing off the coast come
sunrise Thursday morning ushering cooler conditions Thursday and
through the rest of the week. High temperatures Thursday will
struggle to climb out of the 60s north of I-10 with temperatures
climbing into the low 70s near the coast. Radiational cooling and
a breezy northerly wind will make Thursday night feel quite brisk.
Low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s north of
Madisonville, into the low 40s north of I-10, and then upper 40s
southwards. Breezy conditions with gusts to 25mph will be possible
along the coast Thursday night into Friday morning as the cold
air moves over the relatively warmer Gulf waters. Surface high
pressure slides across to the north on Friday bringing a quick
return to easterly flow across the Gulf. Friday will see similar
temperatures as Thursday, though daytime temperatures may even end
up being slightly cooler since it will be starting out so chilly
in the morning.

The high pressure continues to move eastward on Saturday bringing a
more southeasterly to southerly flow. This increases the
temperatures and moisture into SE Texas bringing high temperatures
into back into the 70s on Saturday. WAA continues on Sunday as the
flow strengthens and turns more southerly causing high temperatures
to climb into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday. Our next cold front
will be approaching the area late Sunday night into Monday. As of
right now, this front looks to be a bit more moist than the
lackluster front Wednesday night/Thursday from this week so some
showers and isolated thunderstorms should accompany this FROPA.

High pressure follows the passage of the cold front bringing a
return of cooler and drier conditions for Tuesday. While the
timing of the cold front has come into better focus compared to
the past few days, don`t be surprised if it slides forwards or
backwards in time by a half a day or so by the end of this week.

Fowler
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