November 2021
Who’s actually getting rain? It’s hitting a wall as it hits Harris county. Just drove from cypress to willowbrook and not a drop.
Light rain to drizzle is all I’ve had. A total of 0.07” so nothing to write home about. Just enough to keep it cool and wet. Will see if anything gets together as the afternoon/evening progresses
Big warm up ahead - to upper 70s this week. Lows nearly 60 a few nights! Ugh - with creeping dew point up.
FXUS64 KHGX 281029
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Night]...
Some patchy light rain/drizzle over the southeast areas on the way
out early this morning as upper wave departs. Band of showers
over the Gulf waters will be moving out as well. By 8 am the
precip over SETX should be gone. Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies will
prevail much of day and with another cold front on the way late
this morning temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s.
High pressure over KS this morning will move quickly southeast and
should be overhead by early Monday morning and will set the stage
for a cool night with upper 30s to mid 40s across the area
beneath clear/mostly clear skies. Monday the high slips into the
Gulf and east which will bring in light south/southeast winds.
Slight warm up Monday night with very light southerly flow.
45
&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
Fair weather with light southerly winds will continue Tuesday as
mostly zonal flow prevails aloft and surface high pressure tracks
east into the south central coasts. As the surface high moves
further into southeastern CONUS late Tuesday into Wednesday, warm
moist air from the Gulf will begin to expand into Southeast Texas.
This should increase the local PWs to near 1.0 inch by Wednesday
afternoon, giving us a bit more cloud coverage during the day.
Although an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
Wednesday, mostly zonal flow will persist over our local area, so
not expecting the passage of the trough to be much of an influence
locally. Upper level ridging will return by early Thursday and
surface high pressure over central TX will move east to
southeastward during the day Thursday. Additionally, drier air along
the low to mid levels expands over southeast Texas during the day,
thus, have tapered down the PoPs through Friday morning. As the
surface high pressure moves eastward towards southeast CONUS Friday,
low level PWs will recover and bounce back into the 1.0 to 1.4 inch
range and remain near these values through Saturday. Now, Friday
afternoon into the upcoming weekend, the forecast gets a bit
convoluted. Yesterday`s model runs were hinting at the next cold
frontal passage sometime late Friday into Saturday morning. Tonight,
models have "backed off" from this solution and now show the cold
front possibly moving through Southeast TX sometime later this
weekend. Although the timing of the cold front is now pushed later,
models still indicate a few upper level weaknesses passing through
Texas Friday and Saturday and given that we`ll have some decent low
to mid level moisture moving over the CWA during that period, have
continued to indicate slight chances of rain for Friday afternoon
and Saturday.
For the local temperatures, expect a gradual warming trend during
the work week with highs starting in the low 70s Tuesday, reaching
the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. Lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s Tuesday night will also warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by
Friday night. 24
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CST Sun Nov 28 2021
.SHORT TERM [Today through Monday Night]...
Some patchy light rain/drizzle over the southeast areas on the way
out early this morning as upper wave departs. Band of showers
over the Gulf waters will be moving out as well. By 8 am the
precip over SETX should be gone. Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies will
prevail much of day and with another cold front on the way late
this morning temperatures will struggle to reach the lower 60s.
High pressure over KS this morning will move quickly southeast and
should be overhead by early Monday morning and will set the stage
for a cool night with upper 30s to mid 40s across the area
beneath clear/mostly clear skies. Monday the high slips into the
Gulf and east which will bring in light south/southeast winds.
Slight warm up Monday night with very light southerly flow.
45
&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Sunday]...
Fair weather with light southerly winds will continue Tuesday as
mostly zonal flow prevails aloft and surface high pressure tracks
east into the south central coasts. As the surface high moves
further into southeastern CONUS late Tuesday into Wednesday, warm
moist air from the Gulf will begin to expand into Southeast Texas.
This should increase the local PWs to near 1.0 inch by Wednesday
afternoon, giving us a bit more cloud coverage during the day.
Although an upper level trough moves into the Great Lakes region
Wednesday, mostly zonal flow will persist over our local area, so
not expecting the passage of the trough to be much of an influence
locally. Upper level ridging will return by early Thursday and
surface high pressure over central TX will move east to
southeastward during the day Thursday. Additionally, drier air along
the low to mid levels expands over southeast Texas during the day,
thus, have tapered down the PoPs through Friday morning. As the
surface high pressure moves eastward towards southeast CONUS Friday,
low level PWs will recover and bounce back into the 1.0 to 1.4 inch
range and remain near these values through Saturday. Now, Friday
afternoon into the upcoming weekend, the forecast gets a bit
convoluted. Yesterday`s model runs were hinting at the next cold
frontal passage sometime late Friday into Saturday morning. Tonight,
models have "backed off" from this solution and now show the cold
front possibly moving through Southeast TX sometime later this
weekend. Although the timing of the cold front is now pushed later,
models still indicate a few upper level weaknesses passing through
Texas Friday and Saturday and given that we`ll have some decent low
to mid level moisture moving over the CWA during that period, have
continued to indicate slight chances of rain for Friday afternoon
and Saturday.
For the local temperatures, expect a gradual warming trend during
the work week with highs starting in the low 70s Tuesday, reaching
the upper 70s to low 80s by Friday. Lows in the upper 40s to upper
50s Tuesday night will also warm up into the upper 50s to mid 60s by
Friday night. 24
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6253
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mostly clear skies & light winds will prevail going into the
overnight hours. Areas of fog expected to develop once again in
the late night hours...some of which will probably be locally
dense at times. SREF guidance did fairly well last night and it`s
favoring the same general areas again tonight along the US-59,
I-69 and I-10 areas...but with some higher probabilities of lower
vsbys potentially impacting some of the metro airports in the
4-9am timeframe. Gradual improvement anticipated thereafter with a
return to VFR conditions areawide before lunchtime Tue. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 44 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 72 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 57 70 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1134 AM CST Mon Nov 29 2021
.AVIATION...
Mostly clear skies & light winds will prevail going into the
overnight hours. Areas of fog expected to develop once again in
the late night hours...some of which will probably be locally
dense at times. SREF guidance did fairly well last night and it`s
favoring the same general areas again tonight along the US-59,
I-69 and I-10 areas...but with some higher probabilities of lower
vsbys potentially impacting some of the metro airports in the
4-9am timeframe. Gradual improvement anticipated thereafter with a
return to VFR conditions areawide before lunchtime Tue. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 70 44 72 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 46 72 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 57 70 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
There wasn’t any sun around here all weekend until very late afternoon/early evening yesterday. And even then it wasn’t much.
We drove our son to Bush Int. Saturday evening for his flight. It rained all the way there and back. The weather was almost as bad as the Aggie - LSU game. At least we were prepared!