November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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18 Z Averaged Precip
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GFS 18z Averaged Precip Rate 11 03 21.png
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 031125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Front on the doorstep - it is through KT35 but not yet to CFD/CLL.
Expect it to make its way coastward through the day, bringing SHRA
and at least VCTS with it. Have CIGs coming down to MVFR later
this morning, with winds shifting more NE at the Houston
terminals early afternoon followed shortly by the rain.

Winds back a little more to N/NE overnight, and though colder,
drier air will start to work in...front looks to stall just above
the surface. This will keep low (IFR-LIFR) CIGs, and potentially
fog/mist/drizzle/light rain in place through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 326 AM CDT Wed Nov 3 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

A change in the weather is right on our doorstep, with a cold
front expected to slowly cross the area later today through
tomorrow. Rain chances will gradually overspread the area and
slowly increase through the day, with an expectation of widespread
rain near the front scraping across the area this afternoon into
tonight.

Drier, colder air moves in from north to south tomorrow, slowly
turning off the rain tap as that drier air works in. Overnight,
rain potential should be cut down to just portions of the coastal
Gulf waters, with several days of fair weather ahead of us. Expect
crisp, cool autumn weather in the wake of the front - some spots
in Houston County well north of the Houston metro will see their
first temps below 40 degrees. Gradual warming will take place into
next week as the airmass moderates, passing through seasonal
averages to above average temperatures by the middle of next week.




.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Early this morning, radar reveals some rain showers in the tri-
forecast office junction between the areas of responsibility for
our office, Fort Worth, and Austin/San Antonio. For the moment,
all of the rain has held out of our forecast area, but it`s really
just a matter of time. The GOES-East GLM sensor even shows some
real low flash density in some of these showers, so we can
anticipate at least some isolated thunder even as the first
showers make their way into the area ahead of the front.

Even though rain chances will start to creep down from the north
through the morning, the best window for rain - and the most
impactful - will be this afternoon through tonight, closer to the
front as it works its way towards the Gulf coast. The 850 mb ridge
is still progged to try its very best to hold tight against this
upper trough and surface front. It`s a vain effort, but it
probably will stretch of the frontal surface in the lower levels.
This should drag out rainfall potential through the night, and
potentially into tomorrow (particularly near the coast) while a
secondary shortwave trough crosses the area.

Widespread rainfall totals will be in the range of 0.5 to 1.5
inches - a good, wetting rainfall given a general rainfall
deficit of late. That said, given the slow nature of the front,
we always need to be on the lookout in spots that are low-lying
and/or poor draining, as isolated stronger cells will be capable
of producing more rainfall. Deterministic models indicate some
weak convective bullseyes on the front, and embedded within the
broader moderate rainfall, the HREF localized probability-matched
mean QPF suggests bullseyes in excess of two inches. If a stronger
cell (or training of cells) occur over a vulnerable spot, a
localized minor flooding concern could emerge. For most though,
expect a nice, relaxing rainy day/night ahead of several days of
fair weather.

Reinforcing cold, dry air moves in from north to south through the
day tomorrow. This will also cut off precip chances as it scours
out the moisture and kicks out the frontal surface just aloft.
This will take some time, though, so expect low clouds, mist,
perhaps even some light drizzle/sprinkles to linger even after
more sustained rain showers end. Tomorrow night also looks to
feature our coldest temps since before the summer. The invading
cold air looks to bring lows in the lower 50s all the way to the
coast. Way up north in Madison and Houston counties, some lows
around 40 and even in the upper 30s are forecast!


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit "warmer" compared to
Thursday as the bulk of the dry air finally filters in and clears
out the blanket of cloud cover. There is a bit of discrepancy on
exactly how fast the clouds clear out as low-level moisture tries to
linger around. It goes without saying that if cloud cover sticks
around through Friday afternoon, then temperatures will be a tad bit
cooler. For now, I`m leaning towards clouds clearing out by the late
morning/early afternoon, so we`ll see highs in the mid to upper 60s.
With clear skies and light winds going into Friday night, the
environment will be primed for sufficient radiational cooling
leading to temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to upper 40s.

An upper-level ridge replaces the upper-level trough by Saturday
with a subsequent shift of the surface high pressure to the east.
Temperatures will continue to trend upward over the weekend with
highs in the mid 70s by Sunday and lows near 50 by Sunday night.
Global models are still indecisive on how fast the surface high
moves out, and this has an effect on when moisture begins to filter
back into the region. GFS is still the fastest solution with onshore
flow returning on Saturday night, but the latest runs of the
Canadian have closed in on this timing as well. Euro still lags
behind with onshore flow returning on Sunday afternoon. The models
are in agreement that PWs remain under 1" until late Tuesday. So,
even though an embedded shortwave moves through on Monday/Tuesday,
there will not be enough moisture to get anything more than clouds
to develop.

Upper-level ridge persists into early next week, so the warming
trend continues with highs in the 80s as early as Monday. Don`t get
too down about the warm temperatures just yet...there appears to be
hope on the horizon! Flow aloft becomes briefly zonal before another
upper-level trough moves in from the west. Each model is vastly
different with how deep this trough extends. The Canadian is deepest
and is followed by the Euro then the GFS. Model consensus is
prevalent on a strong jet streak west of the trough, so it should
deepen. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis occurs east of the Rockies
on Wednesday. This area of low pressure may drag another cold front
through the area at the end of next week. It`s too early to lock
this in as a final answer, but the upper-level pattern definitely
looks favorable for this front to make it to Southeast Texas and
give us a third weekend in a row of cool and dry weather. Between
you and me, I`m all in on this FROPA. Big mon...I mean cold
temperatures, no whammies!


.MARINE...

Light southeasterly winds will prevail through late Wednesday when a
cold front pushes through the coastal waters. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely ahead of and along the frontal boundary.
Dry air will take a while to filter in, so rain showers will linger
off of the coast through Thursday night. Moderate to strong
northeasterly winds will follow in the wake of the front leading to
elevated seas that persist through Friday. Persisting offshore flow
may also lead to low water levels during low tide in the bays on
Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow returns over the weekend as
surface high pressure transitions eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 65 48 57 44 65 / 90 70 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 72 51 59 46 67 / 90 80 30 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 58 62 52 67 / 60 80 50 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:44 am November 03 2021 18 Z GFS
The core of that cold on that map looks to go east of us again but that’s way far out so not buying that at all yet.
Stratton20
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CPV17 this mornings 06z GFS run shifted that Cold air in the 10-12 day range back to the west , its just a guessing game until we get within 5 days
Kingwood36
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I won't get my hopes up for any cold till January lol..Nov and Dec have normally been pretty warm around these parts
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don
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Nothing major, but minor street flooding will be a possibility today in localized spots this afternoon/evening.

wpc_excessive_rainfall_dvay1.us_sc.png
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Wed Nov 03 2021

Day 1
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 03 2021 - 12Z Thu Nov 04 2021

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS
OF TEXAS...

...Texas...
Shortwave energy moving across the Southern/Central Rockies will
eject out into the Plains during this period, pushing the surface
front further into South Texas. Return moisture off the western
Gulf will increase instability through the afternoon increasing
the potential for surface based convection by early evening, both
across eastern TX as well across south Texas into the Rio Grande
Valley. Hi-res guidance show hourly rates up to 1 inch early in
the period across the Hill Country and central portions of the
state; increasing up to 2+ inches/hour as band of convection
reaches eastern Texas after 18Z. Into the evening and overnight
hours, Hi-Res CAMs further expand thunderstorm development across
South-Central to southern Texas with greatest probabilities near
Corpus Christi though, areas further west across the Brush country
of South Texas will have isolated potential of rates in excess of
2"/hr and isolated totals up to 4". The latest WPC QPF increased
amounts over South Texas therefore minor adjustments were made to
the Marginal Risk area to now include all of South Texas.

Campbell
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 Wouldn't say that, we have had some big cold snaps in November before, definitely wont have to wait till January for cold weather, we will have plenty of opportunities for that this fall/ winter
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tireman4
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11:30 am Radar....
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captainbarbossa19
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Hey y'all! It has been a while since I have been on. Life has been busy with school. I saw the CPC forecast for this month, and I do not think it is going to verify very well. Every front we have had this fall has been at least average strength, and with this next front, lows will be rather chilly once again. Also, rainfall was above-average for October in my area. I think ENSO is being a little too heavily weighted this month and winter, but we shall see.
Iceresistance
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:35 am I won't get my hopes up for any cold till January lol..Nov and Dec have normally been pretty warm around these parts
I once had a chilly snap in July, Temperatures fell to the 50s
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