November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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November 2021

Post by tireman4 » Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:27 pm

Will it be a Turkey or Stuffing? :) Hot or Cold?

Kingwood36
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Re: November 2021

Post by Kingwood36 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 10:47 am

I'm hoping for cold

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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Sat Oct 30, 2021 11:57 am

Its looking more like the end of this coming week will feature some good rains for a big chunk of the state.With a potent shortwave coming in with the front.May even have some heavy rain if the instability is high enough.
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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Oct 30, 2021 3:25 pm

don wrote:
Sat Oct 30, 2021 11:57 am
Its looking more like the end of this coming week will feature some good rains for a big chunk of the state.With a potent shortwave coming in with the front.May even have some heavy rain if the instability is high enough.
Waiting for the Euro to jump onboard.

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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Oct 31, 2021 1:45 pm

This next front is losing a lot of steam with each passing model run. Doesn’t look nearly as strong as it did a few days ago. Not really surprised. Also looks to go more towards the southeast instead of straight south.

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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:14 pm

Yep it looks like its going to just be a seasonal average front for this time of year.(as i mentioned a few days ago) Rainfall amounts look to be 1-2 inches with maybe some localized spots getting a little more.A majority of the precipitation may end up being post frontal,which will mean less instability and moisture to work with and thus lower rainfall rates.The rain does seem to be widespread though so everyone should get some atleast. ;)

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Re: November 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:31 pm

Of course the front is going to be a bust, looks like November is going to suck in terms of cooler weather! Boooo!👎👎 Can we just skip to January already?

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Re: November 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Sun Oct 31, 2021 3:05 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sun Oct 31, 2021 2:31 pm
Of course the front is going to be a bust, looks like November is going to suck in terms of cooler weather! Boooo!👎👎 Can we just skip to January already?
Not to me, highs dropped from the 70s Yesterday to the 60s Today, it's only getting colder with highs only reaching the 40s in the next couple of days.

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Re: November 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Oct 31, 2021 3:44 pm

Iceresistance lucky!! Highs in the 40’s sound amazing!

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Re: November 2021

Post by tireman4 » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:39 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 011137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Patchy shallow fog are possible early this morning, mainly near
KCLL, KCXO, KSGR and KLBX terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through late evening with light SE winds. Increasing
low- level moisture and light winds could result in MVFR to
occasional IFR conditions due to fog and stratus early Tuesday
morning. Low clouds/stratus will be possible over the Brazos
Valley, impacting KCLL. Areas of fog will be possible across most
of the region with the highest probabilities north of I-10. 05


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 336 AM CDT Mon Nov 1 2021/...





.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

A great start to November with dry weather and temperatures rather
comfortable even though readings will be up to 5 degrees above
average. A vorticity maxima embedded in the zonal flow aloft will be
moving over the region today. Given limited moisture, expect only a
few passing high clouds. Another chilly night is expected, though it
will be slightly warmer over the Brazos Valley, given the chance for
some stratus/low clouds.

A foggy morning is anticipated early Tuesday, mainly for locations
north of I-10. With increasing southerly warm and more humid air
from the Gulf and light winds, areas of fog are expected through mid
morning. A weak cold front extending over north TX will slowly move
southward into Central TX on Tuesday, leading to increasing cloud
cover by late evening. Increasing cloud cover and zonal flow aloft
will allow for daytime highs from the upper 70s to low 80s and
slightly warmer overnight lows; ranging from the upper 50s to upper
60s.

05-Maldonado


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

With surface high pressure to our east, onshore flow will continue
to persist and moisture will continue to increase on Wednesday with
PW values ranging from 1.3"-1.5" (above the 75th percentile for
November). A broad upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region with
an associated mid-level shortwave will be the driving force of our
next cold front that is slated to push through on Wednesday
night/Thursday morning. The Euro and Canadian are the most
progressive with the front taking it to the coast by Thursday at
03Z, while the GFS is about 3 hours behind and the NAM 9 hours
behind. With a split jet and climatologically high PW values,
locally heavy downpours will be possible with the
showers/thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. With low
instability and weak shear, not anticipating any severe
thunderstorms. Following the front, dry air filters in and high
pressure builds in leading to a pleasant end of the week.

The temperature forecast for Wednesday is a bit tricky since it
depends highly on how far south the front makes it before we reach
peak heating, but even then the skies will be overcast as rain
approaches our northern counties. For now, went with highs in the
upper 60s/low 70s for the northern tier of counties and upper
70s/low 80s everywhere else. CAA in the wake of front will bring
cold temperatures once again to Southeast Texas, and when I say
cold...well I`ll let you be the judge. On Wednesday night,
temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s. Thursday night and Friday
night may be the coolest temperatures of Fall so far as lows range
from the upper 30s/low 40s up north of I-10 to the mid 40s south of
I-10. With light winds and clear skies, we could see temperatures
get lowered by a few degrees in later forecasts with lower quartile
values from the NBM showing low 40s extending south of I-10.

We haven`t even discussed daytime temperatures yet, that`s going to
be the real treat! Highs on Thursday will only reach the upper 50
(not a typo) to the low 60s, and low to mid 60s on Friday. Surface
high pressure slides off to the east on Saturday and an upper-level
ridge slowly eases in from the west. Temperatures will be on an
upward trend over the weekend, but still very pleasant. Highs on
Saturday in the upper 60s/low 70s, and low to mid 70s on Sunday and
Monday. The good news is that models are in relatively good
consensus that rain chances are nonexistent going into early next
week. Although onshore flow returns on Sunday, it will take a few
days for moisture to increase. Two picture perfect and cool weekends
in a row...we`ve definitely hit the weather jackpot thus far!

Batiste


.MARINE...

As surface high pressure continues to slide off to the east, light
onshore flow will persist through Tuesday. Winds begin to increase
going into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. The
cold front will push offhsore on Wednesday night/early Thursday
morning and will bring showers and thunderstorms along its boundary.
In the wake of the front, moderate to strong northerly/northeasterly
winds and elevated seas are expected. Advisories and cautions will
likely be needed through at least Friday. Based on the previous cold
front, we will have to monitor the potential for abnormally low
tides on Thursday.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 80 56 79 59 73 / 0 0 0 10 60
Houston (IAH) 79 57 79 60 77 / 0 0 0 0 40
Galveston (GLS) 78 70 78 70 78 / 0 0 0 0 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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