November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Fri Nov 19, 2021 3:10 pm

Models are still trying to figure out the strength and speed of the cutoff low.Some models runs have been much more progressive and weaker with the system,while other runs show a deeper and slower system. Of course the model inconsistency is expected in this range.But there seems to be two possible scenarios that may play out for us at this time.

(Scenario 1: We end up with a single squall line or MCS that moves in and out of the area with the frontal passage,decreasing rainfall amounts substantially.)

(Scenario 2: We end up with a prolonged heavy rain event with multiple disturbances moving through the state in the southwest flow aloft around the main upper level low. Producing thunderstorm clusters and MCS's,for possibly multiple days.)

By the end of the weekend we should have a better idea on which solution looks more likely for us.

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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:43 pm

From HGX afternoon discussion : https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

The cold front should be moving through North Texas around sunrise
and pushing quickly southeast with the increasing westerly flow
aloft expect the front reach College Station by around 3 pm and
Houston by around 6 pm followed by Galveston by 8 or 9 pm. Spotty
showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be possible though the
CAPE looks marginal and the cap moderately strong. Temperatures
should peak out on the warm side Sunday in the mid to upper 70s
north and lower 80s to around 80 south. If the front slows down
even slightly another bump up of a few degrees may be needed.
High pressure builds in quickly Sunday night and Monday and will
bring mostly clear skies and cool dry conditions. Guidance is
struggling with a couple of big troughs this forecast period. The
first that swings through late weekend goes on to carve out a big
trough off the East Coast and the ensembles show a large
variability in the strength and depth of the trough but are tight
on speed/translation...but this starts to feed into the upstream
with troughing over the Western U.S. breaking down. This brings on
the second issue...timing and strength of this western trough.
Models have really been all over the place. The feature that looks
likely is moderate to strong WAA Tuesday night into at least
Thursday - Thanksgiving morning. Will be running on the warm side
of the guidance during this WAA period with low POPs. The timing
issue rears it`s multifaceted head for Thursday through Saturday.
The trend...nevermind that as the models have been flip flopping
so much on timing to call it a trend would be an insult to time.
The overall pattern should bring an upper trough southeast through
Arizona then it turns east. How fast is the big question. At this
point will carry 30-50 POPs Thanksgiving through early
Saturday... a 12-18 hour period in there is probably going to end
up with much greater coverage than that and the other periods
probably lower. Some features that do warrant some concerns is the
abundance of moisture (PW 1.6-1.95" at the end of November) and
strong deep southerly transport. This could lead to some very
efficient rain makers and even potentially some strong storms. I
would love to say that it is going to be great Holiday weekend but
at this point it certainly looks to start off with a lot of heat
for the area turkeys and some grumbles of thunder. We may even get
a second helping of storms out of it before it is all said and
done.

Stay tuned as the forecast is likely to go through some
interesting variations as the recipe undergoes some changes.

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MontgomeryCoWx
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Re: November 2021

Post by MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:54 pm

Kingwood. I don’t want you to go away. I just think the endless ‘it’s never going to get cold the way I want it’ schtick is tiresome. Look, I love severe cold and Winter weather, but I also know that’s not a given down here.

It’s why we get away to Montana and Idaho quite frequently.
Team #NeverSummer

Cpv17
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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 1:31 am

The past couple runs, the Euro has almost completely dropped the Thanksgiving system. GFS still has it and has been the most consistent with it.

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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:39 am

I don't think were going to get into the 30s anymore looking more like the front is going to wash out over the gulf.And with the placement of the main trough to the east of us.There will only be pacific air to tap into. Its looking more mild now with highs in the 50s/60s lows in the 40s.Same temps as what we've been seeing this month.

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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:59 am

don wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:39 am
I don't think were going to get into the 30s anymore looking more like the front is going to wash out over the gulf.And with the placement of the main trough to the east of us.There will only be pacific air to tap into. Its looking more mild now with highs in the 50s/60s lows in the 40s.Same temps as what we've been seeing this month.
Yeah that’s true. I’m not even too confident in the rain chances now either.

Stratton20
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Re: November 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:41 am

What a complete bust lol

TXWeatherMan
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Re: November 2021

Post by TXWeatherMan » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:23 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:41 am
What a complete bust lol
Too far out to call it a bust. Also don’t know why you would get your hopes up in what models were showing more than a week out almost.

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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Nov 20, 2021 10:42 am

The humidity is on the rise very fast today. Already quite a bit more juice out there than it was just a couple hours ago.

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don
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Re: November 2021

Post by don » Sat Nov 20, 2021 11:32 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Nov 20, 2021 9:41 am
What a complete bust lol
Can't really call it bust if it's not in the forecast yet.As the weather speculation around Thanksgiving has been based on model data,and not a forecast.The conservative forecast the NWS has at the moment looks good to me at this time. We'll have more clarity over the next couple of days of just how wet or dry we will be for the holiday.

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