November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:59 pm

Kingwood36 wrote:
Mon Nov 22, 2021 12:30 pm
Is Thanksgiving suppose to be a washout? I'm smoking a turkey outside
Not it if it’s just one squall line.

Cpv17
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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:10 am

If you want cold on the models, look for at least 1040mb highs dropping south from the Beaufort Sea into the Yukon Territories. That will certainly build up some cold air. Now if you want really cold temps then look for 1050+mb highs up there. The stronger the high is up there, it’s a good bet that the colder it will be as well. Now if you want that cold to come to Texas then you need the high to drop south towards the central or western part of Montana into Wyoming, all while maintaining its strength. Of course there’s other factors as well such as the Greenland Block but what I just is definitely a big factor. What I would give to see a McFarland Signature popping up on the models right now and it actually verifying!!

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Re: November 2021

Post by Kingwood36 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:00 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:10 am
If you want cold on the models, look for at least 1040mb highs dropping south from the Beaufort Sea into the Yukon Territories. That will certainly build up some cold air. Now if you want really cold temps then look for 1050+mb highs up there. The stronger the high is up there, it’s a good bet that the colder it will be as well. Now if you want that cold to come to Texas then you need the high to drop south towards the central or western part of Montana into Wyoming, all while maintaining its strength. Of course there’s other factors as well such as the Greenland Block but what I just is definitely a big factor. What I would give to see a McFarland Signature popping up on the models right now and it actually verifying!!
Ya, I'll just wait till winter actually gets here no need to start wish casting

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Re: November 2021

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:12 am

Kingwood36 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:00 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:10 am
If you want cold on the models, look for at least 1040mb highs dropping south from the Beaufort Sea into the Yukon Territories. That will certainly build up some cold air. Now if you want really cold temps then look for 1050+mb highs up there. The stronger the high is up there, it’s a good bet that the colder it will be as well. Now if you want that cold to come to Texas then you need the high to drop south towards the central or western part of Montana into Wyoming, all while maintaining its strength. Of course there’s other factors as well such as the Greenland Block but what I just is definitely a big factor. What I would give to see a McFarland Signature popping up on the models right now and it actually verifying!!
Ya, I'll just wait till winter actually gets here no need to start wish casting
We actually had snow a few years ago on December 7th. You just never know sometimes but thats one reason why I love the weather.

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tireman4
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Re: November 2021

Post by tireman4 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:05 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 231125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
525 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021


.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday]...

Benign conditions are expected to prevail through the short term
period. Surface high pressure in place will depart to the northeast
this afternoon; as it does so, expect winds to turn easterly in the
morning and then southeasterly during the afternoon hours. The
return of the onshore flow will help restore some of the low level
moisture across SE Texas with PWATs increasing from less than 0.5
inches this morning to around 1.0 to 1.1 inches by early Wednesday.
Not really expecting any significant rain activity on Wednesday, but
the warmer moist air mass will result in a rise in temperatures and
cloudiness. For example, the highs today will generally be in the
upper 60s to low 70s, but increase to the mid to upper 70s on
Wednesday and the lows tonight will see a pretty good near 10 degree
jump, mostly ranging between the lower 50s to mid 60s. It still
feels nice outside though! 24

&&
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Tuesday]...
Cold front moving through N Tx at 9 pm and pushing quickly
southward likely reaching College Station area 7-9 am Thanksgiving
morning. Some spotty showers during these early morning hours over
the western areas but will be looking for more organized deep
convective development as the front rolls into very moisture laden
air. PW of 1.55-1.75" with a nearly saturate profile and somewhat
limited CAPE. This abundance of moisture is well above normal for
this time of year and as the storms develop along the boundary
(close to the CLL/UTS areas) they should continue to move into a
more favorable environment as the upper jet entrance region lines
up over SETX increasing the available lift. Rainfall rates should
increase and some heavy rain will be possible. At this point
expecting a large area of 1-2" across the area with some of the
heavier amounts over the west and central areas. Can`t rule out a
few isolated spots pushing 3" before this is done and the front
pushes out offshore. Falling temperatures during the afternoon.
Coastal could see a very warm afternoon prior to the arrival of
the front. The storms should be over the Conroe to Livingston to
Metro areas around noon and coastal counties by 2-4 pm. May see
some spotty nuisance flooding of the more commonly flooded low
lying roads and intersections with these heavy downpours. The
front should push off the coast and keep on chugging well out into
the Gulf by Friday morning. The upper low that gets cut off will
still pose an issue later in the weekend. Friday though should be
cool and dry with northeast winds (perhaps a little gusty in the
morning). Friday night a good deal cooler with lows dipping into
the mid to upper 30s north and around 40 to lower 40s south with
lower 50s on the coast. Saturday becomes a transition day with
increasing cloudiness from the moist SW flow aloft and as the
upper low over Baja lifts northward the stalled frontal boundary
in the Gulf lifts north and moisture ramps up quickly with
widespread cloud cover by the afternoon hours with light
stratiform rain developing over areas mainly west of the I-45
corridor then shifting southeast and east. Some embedded heavier
showers will be possible but confidence is low on where these will
develop. Have followed the GFS for the most part through Saturday
evening. The ECMWF is slower bringing the moisture back Saturday
and this is in large part to the trajectory of the remnant upper
low being much further south and ejecting out more or less intact
vs the GFS spitting out bits and pieces while lifting north much
slower and much further northward by Monday morning. Saturday late
afternoon through Sunday morning will likely be cloudy and cool
with precip falling. If this stratiform rain pattern remains the
dominate set up for the period then rain chances will need
doubling. A reinforcing push of cool air arrives with the next
high sagging south Sunday afternoon. Dry weather Sunday afternoon
through Monday should be the mainstay but leaning toward a
moistening and warming up by Tuesday.

45
&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. SFC high pressure
will depart to the northeast today, thus, winds will turn easterly
this morning and then southeasterly later this afternoon. Winds
increase to 5-10 KTS during the day, decreasing to around 5 KTS by
the evening. Increase in moisture transport will allow for a little
more cloud development this evening into tonight, but at this time
cigs are not expected to be below MVFR. 24
&&

.MARINE...
Winds out of the east should gradually come around to the
southeast late this afternoon and evening and increase and will
probably be flirting with SCEC conditions tonight. The pronounced
onshore flow strengthens and SCEC/SCA should prevail Wednesday as
seas build into the 6-7 foot range ahead of the cold front. This
front should blow off the coast turning winds to the north and
increasing to 20-25 knots and gusty Thanksgiving late afternoon
and night. SCA conditions follow through Friday afternoon then
winds start to veer to the east and relax Friday evening/Saturday
morning.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 71 54 76 61 66 / 0 0 10 70 80
Houston (IAH) 70 56 76 65 73 / 0 10 10 30 80
Galveston (GLS) 72 65 76 69 75 / 0 0 0 10 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...45

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tireman4
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Re: November 2021

Post by tireman4 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:07 am

Tweet from yesterday…

@RyanMaue — Alaska going thru at least 7-10 days of brutally cold conditions. Temperatures way below 0°F and wind chills colder than -50°F where some people live.

Idea is that this cold sits and spins for next 10-days or so, then unloads on the Lower 48 with major Arctic blast early Dec

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Re: November 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:20 pm

Yep definitely watching whats happening up in alaska with the cold air over the next 14 days, the long range 12z GFS is hinting at a massive arctic intrusion around the first week of december or so

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jasons2k
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Re: November 2021

Post by jasons2k » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:43 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:07 am
Tweet from yesterday…

@RyanMaue — Alaska going thru at least 7-10 days of brutally cold conditions. Temperatures way below 0°F and wind chills colder than -50°F where some people live.

Idea is that this cold sits and spins for next 10-days or so, then unloads on the Lower 48 with major Arctic blast early Dec
In other words…it’s late November…

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:56 am

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:43 pm
tireman4 wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 11:07 am
Tweet from yesterday…

@RyanMaue — Alaska going thru at least 7-10 days of brutally cold conditions. Temperatures way below 0°F and wind chills colder than -50°F where some people live.

Idea is that this cold sits and spins for next 10-days or so, then unloads on the Lower 48 with major Arctic blast early Dec
In other words…it’s late November…
Yeah. It's cold in Alaska (early morning there), but not the type of cold that would bring winter weather or storms here. It's going to get much colder in AK over the next 2-3 months.

https://www.weatherwx.com/weather_maps/ ... &degrees=F

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DoctorMu
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Re: November 2021

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:01 am

Forecast is variable to unsettled and cooler beginning tonight through next week. The exception for best weather appears to be Friday with sunny skies and temps in the upper 50s. Next Monday and Tuesday appear to be sunny and in the 60s. Saturday and Sunday could see rain with the cutoff Baja low.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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