November 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:53 am The front hung around for awhile here. 1.6 inches of rain. It's good to have the A/C off. I had hope to delay return flow. 80s in November is just not right.
We’ll be flirting with the 80’s again by Monday lol
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Any cold front in sight that is actually cold? Meaning highs in the 40s?
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Period begins with LIFR/IFR across the area and -DZ from IAH
coastward. Expect gradual improvement in CIGs through the day,
with MVFR in the afternoon, and VFR conditions cropping up
tonight. Winds remain out of the NNE, gradually diminishing from
10+ kts this morning to around 5 kts tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 AM CDT Thu Nov 4 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Yesterday`s cold front will leave us with some lingering dreary
conditions today - especially at the Gulf coast - with drizzle
and/or light rain showers, some patchy fog, and low clouds.
Colder, drier air will be working its way into the area from the
north, and sets us up for some cold nights late this week and
cool, fair weather days. Through the weekend and much of next
week, the fair weather will continue, and we`ll look for a gradual
warming trend. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s by the middle of next week.


.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

It`s a bit difficult to make out a coherent frontal structure late
tonight, but with the exception of some lagging colder, drier air,
signs point to the surface front having fully cleared the
forecast area, even including the coastal waters.

But even with the surface front through, we are still waiting on
the post-frontal airmass to scour things out beyond just this
initial shallow depth behind the surface front, and so we find
ourselves in a spot where you can just about reach up and touch
the cloud bases. There`s plenty of drizzle, mist, fog, and low
clouds to go around, and don`t expect that to change dramatically
today.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday Night]...

As the colder, drier air makes its way in and becomes deeper
across the area from north to south, we`ll gradually see cloud
bases rise later today/tonight, with hopes that we`ll get mostly
clear around dawn tomorrow. Between the cold advection and
generally lousy conditions to begin the day, we shouldn`t get too
warm - expect highs only to make it into the upper 50s and lower
60s.

Assuming clouds clear as in the forecast, that cooler day puts us
on track to have a considerably colder night - especially in the
far north where we could get a longer shot at radiational cooling.
I don`t think dewpoints will drop enough for anyone to fall to
freezing, but I`ve broadened the area with forecast lows below 40
degrees to just north of College Station, Huntsville, and Lake
Livingston. Even further north into Houston and Madison counties,
we`re getting on the fringe of conditions for frost development.
Since temps are kind of high and winds are kinda low, I`m going to
stop short of saying it`s going to happen, but...it`s also not
impossible.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

The upcoming weather this weekend will be simply pleasant with sunny
skies, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s/50s. Like the classic
song by The O`Jays, we`re living for the weekend! An upper-level
ridge edges in from the west on Saturday and continues our upward
temperature trend into early next week with highs near or just over
80 beginning on Monday. Surface high pressure slides off to the east
towards the end of the weekend, but some discrepancy remains on the
progressiveness of this high. The GFS is still adamant that the
surface high pushes east quicker than the other global models and
returns onshore flow by Saturday night. The Euro and Canadian both
agree on onshore flow returning on Sunday afternoon. Either way, it
takes quite a while for sufficient moisture to return as models
agree that PWs generally remain less than 1" through Tuesday
afternoon. Mid-level shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft skirt
through early next week, but with no moisture to work with these
will just increase cloud cover.

Towards the middle of next week, an upper-level longwave trough digs
down from the western CONUS and deepens as it moves across the
Central Plains with a jet max upstream of its axis. An area of low
pressure develops at the surface and drags another cold front
towards Southeast Texas at the end of the week. PWs pool up ahead of
and along the frontal boundary and ranges from 1.3"-1.5". This is
just over the 75th percentile for this time of year, so locally
heavy rainfall looks to be possible within the showers and
thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. As far as the trough goes,
today`s model runs show a much deeper trough compared to yesterday`s
runs, so confidence has increased on another cold front moving in
just before next weekend (YAY!). As you can imagine, with this being
a little over a week out there is quite a bit of uncertainty as far
as timing goes. The GFS and Canadian are the most progressive with
FROPA on Thursday night, while the Euro lags behind quite a bit with
FROPA on Friday afternoon. Long range NBM guidance shows a large
spread in lower and upper quartiles for both max and min
temperatures at the end of next week. When you think about it...this
makes sense given the model trends. Someone did make a song that
says "gotta get down on Friday" after all. Maybe they were referring
to next week`s temperatures?


.MARINE...

Moderate northeasterly winds will continue to prevail in the wake of
the frontal passage throughout the day before tapering off going
into the overnight hours. Elevated seas will begin to subside on
Thursday night along with the dismissal of lingering offshore rain
showers. Advisories and/or cautions remain in effect throughout the
day. Offshore flow will persist through Saturday morning before
transitioning to onshore flow by Saturday night/Sunday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east. Light to occasionally moderate
onshore flow will then prevail through the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 59 42 66 44 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 46 67 46 71 / 10 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 55 67 58 70 / 20 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM this morning to 1
PM CDT this afternoon for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 1 PM CDT this afternoon
through this evening for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
Posts: 2356
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
Location: Weimar, TX
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 1:53 am The front hung around for awhile here. 1.6 inches of rain. It's good to have the A/C off. I had hope to delay return flow. 80s in November is just not right.
Average high this time of year is 75-78 depending which part of the viewing area. It’s not uncommon to see 80 the first week or two of November.

It’s also not uncommon to see 30s either. Just that time of the year.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:54 am Any cold front in sight that is actually cold? Meaning highs in the 40s?
Nope.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Kingwood36 I agree if we dont have 40’s for highs, then it aint a legit front at all, these 50’s and 60’s for highs are laughable at best, still too warm to my liking
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Temperatures at 11:30 am
Attachments
Temperatures at 11 30 am 11 04 21.png
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z Euro for next weekend, its pretty aggressive on an arctic intrusion
Attachments
42240FE7-2208-4D2C-8F4B-F62EC11CA6FF.png
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 2:33 pm 12z Euro for next weekend, its pretty aggressive on an arctic intrusion
That warms my heart lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Kingwood36 Haha same! But it means little unless we start seeing other models jump on board, 10 days out, lots can and will change
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot] and 49 guests