December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

We need that postive to go kick rocks lol 😆
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

I forgot to mention that a Negative PNA would also be nice since as it turns positive, the cold air from the West Coast will eventually come here
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

GFS 06z has a very light freeze in HOU and mid 20s in CLL on Dec 11. Not unusual for mid December. There does seem significant support behind the cold mass (-15°F to -40°F in Montana, Dakotas), so the unusual part could be the length/reinforcement of the cold snap.

It's a long way off. We'll see.
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

12z GFS is surging it MUCH faster compared to the 6z!
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Iceresistance yup i saw that
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:37 am End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.
True, but 20-50°F warmer in that run in the Rockies. I expect this fantasy to fade away. :lol:
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

18z GFS trended colder again compared to 12z
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

I'm about 50/50 of this becoming a reality
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

The trend is our friend👍
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Texas only gets a glancing blow from the December Polar Vortex in the 18z GFS, but this is previewing what may happen this coming February . . .
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Glancing blows are getter then nothing I suppose
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

im not sold on a goancing blow or a direct hit from the cold air yet, probably wont know that answer for another 8-9 days
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

0z GFS is still on a Glancing blow for Texas, but it has trended slightly southward again . . .
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:41 pm Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now
Likely underestimating/overestimating the cold air in the source region?
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Iceresistance yes, because it literally has little to no cooldown for us anymore in the long range, but we will see, seems like cold arctic air always gives the models fits
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

I’m not going to get too excited or believe anything till it’s within 5 days. Anything past that is a crapshoot. The cold pool of water south of Alaska could be a big detriment towards our winter this season. We really need that area to warm up. Hard to get cold air down here with below average SST’s in that region.
Stratton20
Posts: 4226
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas🤢🤮🤮😂
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:54 pm CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas🤢🤮🤮😂
I once had a streak from 2016-2019 when there was a Thunderstorm on Christmas Day or Eve in Springfield, MO when I was with my Great-Grandparents.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 74 guests