December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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sambucol
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:53 am
sambucol wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 am Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo
He didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed it
Give it time. It will.
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:56 am Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say
Me too.
Iceresistance
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I'm sure another Stratwarm will cause the cold to come here eventually this winter.
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?
Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.
Iceresistance
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:36 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?
Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.
The SSTs near Alaska have warmed up lately
Iceresistance
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18z GFS is shoving the cold FASTER compared to 12z
Iceresistance
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Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!
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sambucol
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Iceresistance wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:03 pm Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!
You are right.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance lets hope the GFS continues on this positive trend toward a colder solution🤞🤞🤞
Stratton20
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Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement😂🙃🙃
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