December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: December 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:01 pm

Don couldnt a cold core low produce its own cold air?

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Re: December 2021

Post by JDsGN » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:06 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:30 am
JDsGN i hope so🤞🤞 75/60 with humidity is just flat out miserable lol
Yeah it lost it and added even more heat in.... Ill enjoy this weekend at least.

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don
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Re: December 2021

Post by don » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:21 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:01 pm
Don couldnt a cold core low produce its own cold air?
Yes,that's what i said.But it wont be able to compensate enough to over power the pacific air in place.The cold core still needs some help at the surface.And we wont have enough cold air in place at the surface for any snow.Not even close...

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don
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Re: December 2021

Post by don » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:30 pm

To be fair though a few sleet pellets or small hail mixed in with the rain wouldn't be impossible especially if we get some elevated storms.But it would only be a novelty at the most.

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Re: December 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:33 pm

Don Hey ill take a novelty anyday🙂 would be cool to see!

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Belmer
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Re: December 2021

Post by Belmer » Fri Dec 17, 2021 1:16 pm

Belmer wrote:
Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:41 am
Don't let tomorrow's weather catch you off guard with the main focus being some potentially hefty rainfall totals across our region. Looking over some soundings and model data this morning, wouldn't rule out some locations picking up 2-3+ inches with PWs in the 1.6-1.8" range which is nearing +2 standard deviation for this time of year. The SPC does have us in a marginal risk tomorrow and although the main threat will be heavy rain, I wouldn't rule out a weak tornado threat, especially if you're south of I-10 as enough instability and shear will be present. No 2% TOR hatch yet from SPC, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they outline one in either in the 1730z update or the one at 07z depending on model data this afternoon. Not expecting much sun tomorrow before the front, but any peaks that come out will only fuel the storms more, with hail also another threat. Depending on which model you look at, general timing of the front looks to be between 11am-4pm.. earlier it can push through the better as far as severe potential... keep the convT down to lessen the instability.

As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be nice since Thanksgiving wasn't the best in that regard.
As expected, the SPC has added a fairly wide hatch for TOR tomorrow

day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif
SPC Day 2 TOR probs
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don
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Re: December 2021

Post by don » Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:29 pm

Yep,I also notice the mesoscale models are showing an impulse moving in ahead of the front tomorrow.Producing possibly some semi discreet cells before a storm complex or weak MCS moves in with the front.Any discreet cells that do develop ahead of the front tomorrow could have a tornado risk.

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Re: December 2021

Post by Belmer » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:27 pm

don wrote:
Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:29 pm
Yep,I also notice the mesoscale models are showing an impulse moving in ahead of the front tomorrow.Producing possibly some semi discreet cells before a storm complex or weak MCS moves in with the front.Any discreet cells that do develop ahead of the front tomorrow could have a tornado risk.
Yeah, some of the soundings I was looking at earlier this morning had some interesting hodographs if those cells can remain discreet. The morning models had the most favorable environment really focused more in our southwestern counties before it gets all junked up ahead of the the front
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Belmer
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Re: December 2021

Post by Belmer » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:37 pm

Belmer wrote:
Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:41 am
As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be nice since Thanksgiving wasn't the best in that regard.
Welp, so much for Euro's hopeful 60s. Both 12z runs are an absolute blow torch for Christmas Day... 80+

But still dry so small silver lining :roll:
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Re: December 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:38 pm

Fingers crossed the tornado threat does not come to fruition🤞 may be just some beneficial rain but nothing serious, hopefully🙂and both of the shows 80’s for Christmas... Bahumbug😆those models bringing out the Ebenezer Scrooge in me

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