December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Cromagnum wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 12:36 pm
Iceresistance wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 5:46 am Today is already looking very terrifying. :shock:
In what regard?
Severe weather.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

In the midwest..Nebraska..and Iowa .
Cromagnum
Posts: 2592
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

At least it's going to try to get back to average seasonal temperatures for a few days, but then right back to hot pea soup for Christmas. :x
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

I don't want to model ride but it looks like the latest GFS is pushing reinforcing front through around Christmas? Upper 40s Christmas morning and 60-63? That would be way better than 75/60 and humid.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

JDsGN i hope so🤞🤞 75/60 with humidity is just flat out miserable lol
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Im not buying it..gfs has been crap that far out..id bet on 70s or 80s for highs and low 60s
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 161736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1136 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of low to high clouds will prevail this afternoon, with
better chances over our inland terminals. Isolated to scattered
showers with a few lightning strikes will be possible this
afternoon for terminals north of IAH and near GLS. Southerly warm
and humid air will bring another period of IFR to occasional LIFR
ceilings and reduced visibilities late tonight into Friday
morning. Low ceilings will impact most terminals; however, areas
of fog look more likely east of I-45, impacting mainly KUTS and
KCXO. Have visibilities as low as 4SM for KUTS and KCXO, but it
needs to be monitored as it could be lower after sunrise (early
Friday).

05


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 539 AM CST Thu Dec 16 2021/...





.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

Winds have been just strong enough overnight to keep most radiation
fog at bay. Even by the coast, dense sea fog has temporarily
subsided. However, just before sunrise and during the early hours of
the morning commute, winds should decrease just enough for some
areas of patchy fog to develop inland. Near the coast, sea fog and
lower clouds are expected to fill back in and persist until this
weekend`s frontal passage. Meanwhile, as a frontal boundary remains
stalled just north of our CWA, some isolated showers are expected
for northern counties today and increase to scattered showers for
these counties by this afternoon. Another warm and potential record
breaking day is on tap for Southeast Texas with temps heating back
up to the lower 80s today and a few degrees warmer south of I-10
where an earlier onset of breaks in cloud cover will lead to more
surface heating. Overnight lows tonight will only cool to the upper
60s again which is approximately 25 degrees warmer than the
climatological average for overnight lows this time of year.

By Friday morning, that previously mentioned frontal boundary will
continue to drift further north as a warm front and increase the
local onshore flow and WAA for Southeast Texas. Therefore, another
day of sea fog is expected for coastal areas. Winds become more
southeasterly Friday evening and into Saturday morning, which is a
slightly more favorable fetch for higher DP air needed for sea fog.
Daytime highs reach the lower 80s once again. Meanwhile another mid
level shortwave pushing through The Rockies on Friday evening will
invigorate a surface cold front across the Southern Plains and
extend as far northeast as The Great Lakes. This front is expected
to begin pushing south towards the coast with pre FROPA showers and
thunderstorms reaching our northern counties by late Friday evening
and into Saturday morning. Rain chances will steadily increase
through the evening, beginning with northern counties as this
frontal boundary pushes further south. Northern counties will cool
down to the lower 60s due to the help of some much needed rain
showers, but remaining areas south will only cool to the mid to
upper 60s once again.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

Our recent stretch of record heat will come to an end with the passage
of the cold front during the day on Saturday. Showers and possible thunderstorms
can be expected with the front with much of the area probably receiving
1/2 to 1 inch rainfall amounts throughout the day (with precipitable
water values quite high for this time of the year, isolated higher totals
will be possible). High temperatures will likely occur during the morning
hours as readings fall behind the front into the 50s/60s. Rains will
come to an end for a majority of the area Saturday evening and Saturday
night then gradually return to the area Sunday afternoon and evening
when the upper trof begins to edge toward the state from the west.
Best rain chances with the trof come Sunday night and Monday when this
feature finally moves across the state (another 1/4 to 1/2 inch rainfall
amounts are anticipated at this time for much of the area). Rain chances
drop out of the forecast Monday evening, and the area remains dry in
the Tuesday through Thursday time period.

Much cooler temperatures will return to the area over the weekend and
on into the first half of the week (lows generally in the 40s inland
and 50s at the coast with a few northern spots even dipping into the
mid to upper 30s - highs mostly in the 50s Sunday and Monday, in the
60s Tuesday and Wednesday and in the 70s on Thursday).

42


.MARINE...

Periods of dense sea fog will continue to be possible until the next
cold front arrives on Saturday morning. The light to moderate onshore
flow will persist through Saturday morning with winds occasionally reaching
caution levels. Showers and possible thunderstorms along with elevated
north to northeast winds and building seas can be expected with the
passage of the front. Small craft advisories will likely be needed on
Saturday night and Sunday due to elevated winds and seas. Gradually
weakening north to northeast winds and lowering seas can be expected
on Monday and Monday night. 42


.CLIMATE...

Unseasonably warm temperatures continued across the area yesterday
with all four of our major climate sites setting records. College
Station set a record high minimum temperature of 71 (old record
was 70 from 1948). Houston tied their record high minimum temperature
of 71 from 1948. Houston Hobby tied their record high temperature of
83 from 2019 and set a record high minimum temperature of 74
(old record was 70 from 1948). Galveston set a record high temperature
of 79 (old record was 77 from 2019) and tied their record high minimum
temperature of 70 from 1933.

For yesterday (December 15th)...

College Station`s average temperature of 77 degrees was 24 degrees above
normal. For December 1-15, the average temperature of 66.4 degrees is
12.0 degrees above normal.

Houston`s average temperature of 77 degrees was 22 degrees above normal.
For December 1-15, the average temperature of 67.8 degrees is 11.2 degrees
above normal.

Houston Hobby`s average temperature of 79 degrees was 22 degrees above
normal. For December 1-15, the average temperature of 69.8 degrees is
11.8 degrees above normal.

Galveston`s average temperature of 75 degrees was 16 degrees above
normal. For December 1-15, the average temperature of 69.9 degrees
is 9.9 degrees above normal.


Today`s temperature records are...

-College Station`s record high is 82 in 1924 and record high min
is 70 in 1924.

-Houston`s record high is 82 in 1971 and record high min is 69 in
1933.

-Houston Hobby`s record high is 82 in 1971 and record high min is
68 in 1933.

-Galveston`s record high is 76 in 2019 and record high min is 68
in 1933.


42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 67 80 62 68 41 / 20 10 50 80 10
Houston (IAH) 67 81 66 73 48 / 10 10 20 70 20
Galveston (GLS) 69 77 69 74 54 / 10 0 20 80 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 6 PM CST this evening
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021

.AVIATION...

A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings at most TAF sites early this morning while
VFR at sites near the coast. Fog so far has stayed away from most of
the sites, and think winds should stay up enough to keep fog mostly
out of the area. Becoming VFR this morning/afternoon with increasing/gusty
S to SSE winds. Weakening winds this evening and overnight and then
on into tomorrow morning should allow for MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities
to develop. Anticipating increasing SHRA and possible TSRA coverage
tomorrow beginning around 15Z and eventually peaking 18/18Z-18/24Z.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST Fri Dec 17 2021/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

Today will be another very warm day across Southeast Texas with near
record high temperatures possible once again (today`s records are 81
at CLL and IAH, 82 at HOU and 77 at GLS). Any late night through
early morning fog will begin to lift/dissipate after sunrise. Look
for increasing south winds and skies to eventually become partly
cloudy as temperatures warm up. Some showers could develop tonight,
but much higher shower/thunderstorm chances will spread across the
area during the day on Saturday as a cold front moves across the
region. Temperatures will be falling behind the boundary with
readings decreasing into the 50s/60s in the afternoon. If the rains
hold off long enough, it is quite possible GLS could tie or break
their Saturday high temperature record of 74 set way back in 1889.
Storms developing both along and ahead of the front might have
enough instability and shear to get close to strong or severe per
SPC`s Day 2 Outlook. Also, deep moisture levels (high precipitable
water values) accompanying some low level convergence and maybe some
weak divergence aloft could become supportive of some locally heavy
rainfall. Main concern areas for the higher rainfall amounts look to
be generally in/around the I-59/69 corridor then off to the east and
southeast toward the coast. Rains will come to an end heading into
Saturday night, and expect low temperatures to range from the upper
30s to around 40 well inland to the low 50s at the coast.

42

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

By Sunday morning, the previous cold front will be well offshore
with a refreshing northeasterly breeze filling in behind its
wake. This CAA will help keep temperatures noticeably more cool
and less humid on Sunday with highs only reaching the 50s.
Meanwhile, remnant moisture offshore and a small mid-level
shortwave will induce a coastal low in the Gulf. Although a steep
and stubborn 950-800mb inversion will be in place across most of
Southeast Texas for several days, some stratiform precipitation is
still possible as mid level lapse rates and mid level instability
looks favorable for some elevated/overrunning convection on
Sunday and Monday. As the coastal low lingers across the Gulf
Coast through late Monday, persistent showers will push inland
early next week. Southeast Texas can expect isolated showers
throughout Sunday with the highest rain chances across our
Southern counties. By late Sunday and into Monday, rain chances
will climb to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms until
the coastal low pushes far enough east by late Monday night.
Fortunately, rainfall totals will be minimal with areas south of
I-10 expected to reach anywhere from a quarter of an inch to half
an inch of rain. Everywhere else north of I-10 will see
significantly less rainfall totals.

By Tuesday, an upper-level ridge begins to settle across the
Southern Great Plains and squashes any rain chances for the
remainder of the work week. Northerly flow will continue on
Tuesday and help keep temperatures from rising too quickly as
temps will only peak in the 60s and overnight lows dip into 40s.
However, by Wednesday afternoon, surface winds veer to the
southeast and onshore flow resumes. Temps and humidity gradually
begin to climb again with highs reaching the mid 70s and lows
reaching near 60 by Friday, Christmas Eve.

Lenninger

MARINE...

The potential for sea fog will continue through Saturday until a
cold front pushing through our coastal waters washes the fog out.
Currently, a gentle to moderate southeast breeze will increase
and approach caution criteria by Saturday morning ahead of the
approaching cold front. This front is expected to push offshore by
Saturday evening and bring with it some showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Behind the front, strong northeasterly winds are
expected with gusts possibly reaching gale force. Sustained winds
and wind gusts behind the front are something to closely monitor
as our above average warm nearshore waters will help mix down some
strong winds to the surface. Seas will quickly build to 6-7 feet
by Sunday morning. Winds will begin to subside to below Advisory
criteria by Monday morning, but seas will be a little slower to
subside. Northerly winds will persist through Wednesday morning
and transition back to onshore flow by Wednesday afternoon. As
this cold front is expected to cool down our nearshore waters once
again from cold air advection and cold water upwelling, it will
prime our coastal waters again for sea fog. Therefore, the return
of onshore flow mid to late week next week is something to closely
monitor for the return of sea fog.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 61 69 40 54 / 10 40 90 20 10
Houston (IAH) 81 67 75 47 56 / 10 20 80 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 69 75 53 58 / 10 20 90 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Chambers...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Galveston Island.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM...Galveston Bay.

&&

$$
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

Don't let tomorrow's weather catch you off guard with the main focus being some potentially hefty rainfall totals across our region. Looking over some soundings and model data this morning, wouldn't rule out some locations picking up 2-3+ inches with PWs in the 1.6-1.8" range which is nearing +2 standard deviation for this time of year. The SPC does have us in a marginal risk tomorrow and although the main threat will be heavy rain, I wouldn't rule out a weak tornado threat, especially if you're south of I-10 as enough instability and shear will be present. No 2% TOR hatch yet from SPC, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they outline one in either in the 1730z update or the one at 07z depending on model data this afternoon. Not expecting much sun tomorrow before the front, but any peaks that come out will only fuel the storms more, with hail also another threat. Depending on which model you look at, general timing of the front looks to be between 11am-4pm.. earlier it can push through the better as far as severe potential... keep the convT down to lessen the instability.

As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be nice since Thanksgiving wasn't the best in that regard.
Blake
Boomer Sooner
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Another thing that's kinda of interesting is the gulf low that develops early next week.With a cold core low moving right over us ,such a setup is very good to produce snow around here. But the Pacific air in place will make sure we will only have a chilly rain in SE Texas.But if we can continue to get these gulf lows to develop later into winter,we could end up with some snow along the gulf coast eventually.Its all about timing, and having some arctic air to work with.As with a cold core low the arctic air in place would not have to be that substantial, as the cold core can help to compensate for a lack of cold air at the surface.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Don couldnt a cold core low produce its own cold air?
JDsGN
Posts: 125
Joined: Tue May 23, 2017 10:25 pm
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:30 am JDsGN i hope so🤞🤞 75/60 with humidity is just flat out miserable lol
Yeah it lost it and added even more heat in.... Ill enjoy this weekend at least.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 12:01 pm Don couldnt a cold core low produce its own cold air?
Yes,that's what i said.But it wont be able to compensate enough to over power the pacific air in place.The cold core still needs some help at the surface.And we wont have enough cold air in place at the surface for any snow.Not even close...
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

To be fair though a few sleet pellets or small hail mixed in with the rain wouldn't be impossible especially if we get some elevated storms.But it would only be a novelty at the most.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Don Hey ill take a novelty anyday🙂 would be cool to see!
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

Belmer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:41 am Don't let tomorrow's weather catch you off guard with the main focus being some potentially hefty rainfall totals across our region. Looking over some soundings and model data this morning, wouldn't rule out some locations picking up 2-3+ inches with PWs in the 1.6-1.8" range which is nearing +2 standard deviation for this time of year. The SPC does have us in a marginal risk tomorrow and although the main threat will be heavy rain, I wouldn't rule out a weak tornado threat, especially if you're south of I-10 as enough instability and shear will be present. No 2% TOR hatch yet from SPC, but I wouldn't be too surprised if they outline one in either in the 1730z update or the one at 07z depending on model data this afternoon. Not expecting much sun tomorrow before the front, but any peaks that come out will only fuel the storms more, with hail also another threat. Depending on which model you look at, general timing of the front looks to be between 11am-4pm.. earlier it can push through the better as far as severe potential... keep the convT down to lessen the instability.

As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be nice since Thanksgiving wasn't the best in that regard.
As expected, the SPC has added a fairly wide hatch for TOR tomorrow

SPC Day 2 TOR probs
SPC Day 2 TOR probs
Blake
Boomer Sooner
User avatar
don
Posts: 2575
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Yep,I also notice the mesoscale models are showing an impulse moving in ahead of the front tomorrow.Producing possibly some semi discreet cells before a storm complex or weak MCS moves in with the front.Any discreet cells that do develop ahead of the front tomorrow could have a tornado risk.
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

don wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:29 pm Yep,I also notice the mesoscale models are showing an impulse moving in ahead of the front tomorrow.Producing possibly some semi discreet cells before a storm complex or weak MCS moves in with the front.Any discreet cells that do develop ahead of the front tomorrow could have a tornado risk.
Yeah, some of the soundings I was looking at earlier this morning had some interesting hodographs if those cells can remain discreet. The morning models had the most favorable environment really focused more in our southwestern counties before it gets all junked up ahead of the the front
Blake
Boomer Sooner
User avatar
Belmer
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 744
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:29 pm
Location: Dallas, TX
Contact:

Belmer wrote: Fri Dec 17, 2021 10:41 am As for Christmas forecast.. GFS (06z) says 80s (mid to upper 80s near and west of Dallas). Euro has been trending cooler in the latest runs with mid 60s. Pretty large disagreement on the upper-level pattern come next weekend between the two. One thing they agree on is a dry forecast which would be nice since Thanksgiving wasn't the best in that regard.
Welp, so much for Euro's hopeful 60s. Both 12z runs are an absolute blow torch for Christmas Day... 80+

But still dry so small silver lining :roll:
Blake
Boomer Sooner
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Fingers crossed the tornado threat does not come to fruition🤞 may be just some beneficial rain but nothing serious, hopefully🙂and both of the shows 80’s for Christmas... Bahumbug😆those models bringing out the Ebenezer Scrooge in me
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 69 guests