December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Fell to the Upper 20s last night, the NWS expected down to only 30
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 071601
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1001 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021

.SHORT TERM [Today]...
Cold front stalled out offshore just north of the KEMK platform
and remain quasi-stationary today. S/W passing through the area
producing some patchy light sprinkles this morning and this should
shift further east by early afternoon. Cloud cover has been
eroding over the western CWA but still holding strong over the
east...the central is the question. Models are fairly supportive
of the dry air winning and scattering out the central areas late
this morning/early this afternoon. Will be nudging up temperatures
in the northwest a few degrees with the increase in sunshine.

45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 534 AM CST Tue Dec 7 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

For those who were anticipating colder weather after yesterday`s
front, you can have a little today, as a treat. But without a real
strong push of post-frontal cold air, and winds quickly turning
back around to have an onshore component this afternoon, we`ll
begin warming back up tomorrow, and that will carry on for the
rest of the work week as part of an early December that feels
more like October. A stronger front is expected to move through
late Friday/early Saturday, bringing a new round of showers and
thunderstorms. Specifics need to be fleshed out some more, but
there is at least some potential for some strong thunderstorms in
there.

Behind this next front, a stronger push of colder post-frontal air
is expected, giving us a full weekend of temperatures near and
even somewhat below average temperatures! Spots in Houston and
Madison counties may see temperatures bottom out around the
freezing mark Saturday night/Sunday morning. Then early next week,
onshore flow returns and we warm right back up. Somewhere, Jack
Skellington laughs...




.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

October-like temperatures return Thursday and Friday as WAA
increases with southerly flow ahead of a developing low pressure
system over the Desert Southwest. Near record high temperatures will
be possible these days as temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s
with Friday being the warmest day of the week. The moist southerly
flow will continue the possibility of patchy fog during the
overnight to early morning hours Thursday and Friday. Some showers
are possible near the coast on Thursday which could help keep some
of the daytime heating at bay, but these showers will be very
isolated. The aforementioned low pressure system will be exiting
into the Central Plains on Friday with a cold front developing
across central Texas. Prefrontal showers and thunderstorms are
possible on Friday with the highest PoPs north of I-10 and east of I-
45. This cold front will slowly push through the area late Friday
into Saturday morning bringing with it a line of showers and
thunderstorms. Eastern Texas will be in the right entrance region of
a strong jetstreak during this time so the upper level dynamics are
there for some stronger thunderstorms developing.

Unlike the last cold front, guidance is pinging on a strong high
pressure developing in the wake of this next front bringing clear
skies and cool/chilly weather for the majority of the weekend. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the 60s, which is actually near
normal, but will feel chilly after the long stretch of exceptionally
warm weather we have been in for most of December. Overnight lows
Saturday night will be around 40 for most of the region with areas
north of Huntsville dipping down into the mid 30s. Will have to
monitor the trends over the next few days as spots of Houston and
Madison counties could approach freezing. Sunday night will again be
on the chilly side, but warmer by about five degrees compared to
Saturday night. And if you miss the unseasonably warm weather, don`t
fret as southeasterly to southerly flow begin again Monday and
Tuesday with highs back near 70.


.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

TAFs break down into roughly three clusters today. Up north, CLL
and UTS likely to break into VFR this morning, and have enough
drier air filter in to keep VFR through the period, despite winds
turning southerly this afternoon.

At the metro sites, look for VFR conditions to emerge later in the
morning, with light/vrb winds gradually weighted more onshore
than offshore through the day. High confidence in restrictions of
some sort late tonight into early tomorrow morning, but low
confidence in precise details. Stay vague for now with MVFR for
both VSBY and CIGs, and will let future cycles refine for the
details as they become more apparent.

Finally, at the coast - LBX and GLS - reaching VFR today is more
of an ask. Am optimistically putting some low VFR CIGs in the
forecast for late this afternoon and early evening, but confidence
not as high as farther inland. Like with the metro, MVFR is
likely, and even some borderline IFR CIGs are possible.


.MARINE...

Conditions have improved over the last few hours with lowering seas
and decreasing winds, so have allowed the remaining portion of the
SCA to expire. Lingering wave heights between 4 to 5 feet through
the morning will mean that small craft should continue to exercise
in the Gulf waters. Light northeasterly flow will continue through
Wednesday, but easterly then southeasterly winds will develop on
Thursday and continue through Friday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Near shore waters are in the 60s, and dew points will be
climbing into the 70s, so will have to monitor the potential for
patchy sea fog nightly Wednesday through Friday. The one mitigating
factor is that winds will be increasing ahead of the approaching
cold front Thursday into Friday. Caution flags or SCAs will be
possible starting Friday morning as the southerly flow increases and
wave heights climb to 5 to 7ft. The cold front is expected to move
through the waters Saturday morning bringing with it a line of
showers and thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds will follow in
its wake with seas building to 7 to 9ft. Conditions improve on
Sunday as high pressure slides across the area.


.CLIMATE...

Yesterday`s warm temperatures brought us a new record high at
Galveston, as the high at Scholes Field reached 81. This beat the
previous record of 79 - a venerable, long-lived mark that had
stood since...2019. Both Houston climate sites came within one
degree of tying their record highs, but fell just short. College
Station, which saw its temperatures chopped down the soonest and
reached their high just after 8 AM was safely ten degrees below
their record high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 68 51 74 59 80 / 0 0 0 10 10
Houston (IAH) 66 55 73 61 82 / 10 10 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 64 60 72 66 78 / 10 10 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...KBL
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tireman4
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Houston Area Temperatures...12 07 21
Attachments
Current Temperatures Houston Area 12 07 21.png
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 081131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Most of the area has fallen into IFR or LIFR early this morning,
and it will take most/all of the morning to crawl back into MVFR
along with winds becoming southerly and increasing to 5-10 kts.
Some fog is also beginning to develop, particularly at the coast
where sea fog is in place. Optimistically take the TAFs from IAH
northward to VFR for at least a few hours...but also leave FEW
mentions at MVFR as a hint that this might not quite happen. From
HOU coastward, VFR is more of an outside shot, and only allow TAFs
to reach MVFR. Poor flying conditions repeat again overnight with
widespread stratus as well as some fog, especially at the coast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 306 AM CST Wed Dec 8 2021/...

.DISCUSSION...

Some fairly uninspiring conditions are in place in Southeast
Texas, particularly the closer you get to the Gulf of Mexico, as
the post-frontal mass failed to really clear things out. Instead,
onshore flow resumes and warm, moist air is going to push back
into the area for the second half of the week. This means warmer
temperatures, more humid conditions, and overall more of a fall-
like feel than a winter feel.

Well, except at the Gulf, of course. Waters are still cooler, and
this sets us up perfectly for the beginning of Sea Fog Szn. Since
we`re just getting into things and winds are expected to be more
southerly than easterly, expectations aren`t for particularly
dense fog...yet.

Thankfully, a cold front will arrive late Friday into Saturday
morning, bringing some showers, potentially a few embedded
thunderstorms, but also some modestly cooler weather for the
weekend. A warmup is back for next week, though, so fans of cooler
weather shouldn`t be preparing for a long celebration.


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Without the high cirrus in the way, satellite more clearly shows
the shield of stratus blanketing Southeast Texas very early this
morning. Observations reveal that stratus is the predominant
feature, with only some bits of fog bringing the occasional modest
reduction in visibility - mainly near the Gulf coast. Some sea fog
is also likely out there given marine observations, and this
threat is expected to continue to be a thing until our next front
arrives. But there`s more on that below in the Marine section -
head on there if sea fog is your fancy (but...also...who hurt you?)

There is a very subtle shortwave/vort max zipping by in the mostly
zonal/weakly troughy midlevel flow. If you squint right in the low
level WV imagery you can see it, good luck with the other two WV
views. What is more visible is over on the radar screen where
there are some showers over the coastal Gulf waters, making their
way out of the forecast area. A smattering of very light showers
aren`t out of the question over the next few hours, but things are
pretty much over as we are now largely waving goodbye to this
vort max.

Again, we should see slow improvement in conditions through the
day today, with cloud bases generally lifting and the overcast
breaking. I think we should manage more sun than cloud north and
northwest of the Houston metro, where the current edge of the
stratus deck is. The closer you get to the coast, the harder it
will be to shake off the clouds, and they may only rise to 2-3k
feet bases rather than 4,000 or so feet. You might think this
would be pretty damaging to warming potential today, but onshore
flow in the boundary layer and low level warm advection is likely
to counteract any cloudiness. In fact, Hobby has already warmed a
degree in the last 30 minutes, even at a time of night when we`d
typically be seeing temperatures drop.

If you think this means I`m about to talk about temperatures
tonight into Thursday morning being noticeably warmer, you`re
right! Even if the incoming warmer air cuts off cooling early this
morning, we still have widespread lows in the 50s to around 60
degrees. Tomorrow, the coolest spots are likely to only be down
around 60, with more widespread lows in the lower to middle 60s
expected - some coastal spots may struggle to fall much below 70!
This feeds into Thursday, as we`ll be looking for highs in the
upper 70s and even lower 80s, even tough we will again have
trouble getting rid of our mostly cloudy sky through the day. The
incoming slug of warm, moist air is just too much of a boost.

Of course, as moist and more unstable air becomes the primary
airmass, it`s time to start thinking of rain potential. Progged
precipitable water is in the 1.25-1.5 inch range, which isn`t
particularly high, but isn`t nothing, either. We could see some
streamer showers very early Thursday morning as the high theta-E
air moving in should naturally have some isentropic upglide. And
helping things, there are at least some indications that another
very weak shortwave could zip through Thursday morning/afternoon,
helping support upward motion for additional showers. But really,
the best chance for rain going in to the weekend is with the
front, and for that I turn you over to the long term...


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Fall-like weather continues on Friday with high temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s - record high temperatures will be
possible. This is due to WAA increasing ahead of a low pressure
system deepening in the Central Plains Friday afternoon. Increased
moisture plus some daytime heating could lead to some very isolated
showers Friday afternoon north and east of the City of Houston.
Patchy fog will be possible early Friday morning along the coast and
then again Friday night into Saturday morning. The cold front
associated with low pressure system will be moving through SE Texas
late Friday into early Saturday morning and off the coast by
Saturday afternoon. A thin line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible with FROPA bringing limited rain
totals (generally less than a half an inch). While there is some
upper level support for thunderstorms, it looks like the likelihood
of thunderstorms will be mainly to the east as the system moves
through the Mississippi River Valley.

The frontal passage will usher in a cool northerly wind that brings
seasonal to even slightly below normal temperatures back to the
region. Have bumped up the temperatures a few degrees this weekend
as the latest guidance trends have been keeping the center of the
post-frontal high pressure further north. Nevertheless, expect high
temperatures on Saturday to be in the low to mid 60s (even upper 50s
north of Huntsville) and overnight low Saturday night down to near
40 for most of the area with parts of Houston and Madison counties
near freezing. Temperatures during the day on Sunday will be similar
to Saturday, but overnight lows Sunday night will be about 5 degrees
warmer as southeasterly flow returns with the high pressure moving
eastward. Then we begin the temperature climb for the work week with
highs near 70 on Monday, mid 70s Tuesday, and then upper 70s on
Wednesday. There is a chance for some scattered precipitation on
Tuesday as a weak upper level shortwave moves across Texas.


.MARINE...

Low seas with light easterly winds developing today will persist
through Thursday morning. Light to moderate southerly flow develops
Thursday afternoon building seas of 4 to 5 feet by Thursday night.
Advisory conditions with southerly winds near 20-25kts and seas 5 to
6 feet will be possible starting Friday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. This cold front will push through the
coastal waters late Saturday morning or early afternoon bringing not
only a line of showers and thunderstorms, but also usher in strong
northwesterly winds through Saturday night. Winds will be gusting to
near Gale strength Saturday night before decreasing and becoming
northeasterly by Sunday morning. Seas will also be climbing to 7 to
9ft Saturday afternoon in response to the winds.

There is the potential for patchy sea fog each night into early
morning hours through Saturday morning as dew points surge into the
mid 70s while SSTs remain in the 60s. The winds will be more
southerly than easterly which will help limit the potential, but
nevertheless sea fog is possible. There may be a brief reprieve from
this nightly fog this weekend with the dry northerly wind in place,
but the sea fog potential returns next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 74 60 81 69 85 / 0 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 74 62 83 71 85 / 10 20 30 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 71 66 78 72 79 / 10 10 40 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler
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tireman4
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NWS Houston
@NWSHouston
Houston Hobby warmed to 86 degrees at 1221 PM and this is the warmest temperature ever recorded for this location during the month of December besting the 85 degree temperature back on December 3 1933.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 091724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 AM CST Thu Dec 9 2021

.AVIATION...

A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings are expected this afternoon as some
slightly drier air aloft tries to mix toward the surface. Ceilings
will lower after 00z and a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected
overnight. Rinse and repeat on Friday as slightly drier air aloft
again mixes down and ceilings lift to VFR after 16z. The pressure
gradient looks tighter on Friday and winds will be gusty from 15z
onward.

TAF sites near the coast may be dealing with locally lower
vsby/cigs if sea fog develops tonight and Friday. Winds look
stronger and the trajectory will be S-SW which may mitigate the
fog threat but 72 degree dewpoints overriding 66 degree water is a
favorable set up for sea fog. 43

&&
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jasons2k
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Today’s forecast high: 78

Current temp: 84

Today’s high: 85

Tomorrow’s forecast high: 84

Think we got there a bit early.
Cromagnum
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Record high temp recorded today at Hobby. This weather sucks a big one.
Iceresistance
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:51 pm Record high temp recorded today at Hobby. This weather sucks a big one.
Yes, I'm expecting a High of 80 today.
Cpv17
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The wind is crazy today. Was this in the forecast? We’ve had gusts up to 30-35mph.
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