December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Stratton20
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If it delays the cold that means it’s probably not going to happen, the Euro has dropped the arctic air, as usually another boring few weeks of average temps ahead , yawn🙄🙄😴😴
Iceresistance
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Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:57 am
Iceresistance wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:55 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:52 am So the 6z run was for this coming week right?
The 6z had a glancing blow for Next Weekend

The 12z run had it delayed for a further 1-3 Days
Does the 12z show it still as a glancing blow?
Yes, but it's even smaller, the Teleconnections are giving the models an absolute fit.
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snowman65
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winter is....not...coming. gonna be one of those close but no cigar winters Im afraid.
Stratton20
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snowman65 na winter will come, just not right now
Iceresistance
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1060+ MB High over Canada in Mid-December on the 12z GFS model run, combined with a Powerful Storm down the Rockies.

ETA: Oh my goodness
Image

BIG Sleetstorm!
Image

I may never happen, but WOW!
Last edited by Iceresistance on Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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What a run by the GFS, if only it wasnt far out smh, brings wintry precip as far aouth as central texas
Iceresistance
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End of the 12z GFS is February 2021 all over again!
Stratton20
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Iceresistance I know, but I bet this is a one time phantom run by the GFS lol
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:11 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:57 am
Iceresistance wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:55 am

The 6z had a glancing blow for Next Weekend

The 12z run had it delayed for a further 1-3 Days
Does the 12z show it still as a glancing blow?
Yes, but it's even smaller, the Teleconnections are giving the models an absolute fit.
Yes they are. We really need the EPO to cooperate. Imo, the EPO is our biggest factor that controls our winter. It’s too positive right now.
Iceresistance
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The EPO is extremely positive & the models have been underestimating how long it's being Positive right now.
Stratton20
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I changed my mind, goodbye winter, already looking ahead to summer now, winter is going to be a bust
Kingwood36
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:06 pm I changed my mind, goodbye winter, already looking ahead to summer now, winter is going to be a bust
It's not technically even winter yet..yall need to chill
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snowman65
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:06 pm I changed my mind, goodbye winter, already looking ahead to summer now, winter is going to be a bust
hate to say I told you so lol...la ninas are not our winter friends..
Cpv17
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snowman65 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:31 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:06 pm I changed my mind, goodbye winter, already looking ahead to summer now, winter is going to be a bust
hate to say I told you so lol...la ninas are not our winter friends..
Our biggest cold snaps actually come during La Nina’s.
Stratton20
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CPV17 yes that is true, but thats also when we dont have a strong positive EPO, hoping that changes over the next several weeks though, I really dislike warm winters
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:37 pm CPV17 yes that is true, but thats also when we dont have a strong positive EPO, hoping that changes over the next several weeks though, I really dislike warm winters
Last winter was a La Niña. This is a second year La Niña and during the second year La Nina’s is when you can get an unfavorable EPO. There’s plenty of time for something to shake up the background state. Things can and will change.
Stratton20
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CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?
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snowman65
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no cold weather anywhere in sight for awhile...weeks?
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sambucol
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:26 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:37 pm CPV17 yes that is true, but thats also when we dont have a strong positive EPO, hoping that changes over the next several weeks though, I really dislike warm winters
Last winter was a La Niña. This is a second year La Niña and during the second year La Nina’s is when you can get an unfavorable EPO. There’s plenty of time for something to shake up the background state. Things can and will change.
You are correct.
Stratton20
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The GFS has completely dropped the arctic blast, looks like nothing but boring weather for the next few weeks, sigh😪
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