December 2021

[sambucol]

Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo

He didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed it

Give it time. It will.

[sambucol]

Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say

Me too.

[Iceresistance]

I'm sure another Stratwarm will cause the cold to come here eventually this winter.

[Cpv17]

CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.

[Iceresistance]

CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?

Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.

The SSTs near Alaska have warmed up lately

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is shoving the cold FASTER compared to 12z

[Iceresistance]

Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!

[sambucol]

Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.


18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!

You are right.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance lets hope the GFS continues on this positive trend toward a colder solution

[Stratton20]

Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

[TXWeatherMan]

Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

That’s usually what happens when it’s 10+ days out

[Stratton20]

TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome

[Iceresistance]

Stratton20 There is a crazy amount of snow 10 days out on the 0z CMC, mostly along I-40 in Oklahoma (Center of the snowbands)

[MontgomeryCoWx]

TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome

500mb pattern is very different. CMC has an Alaska to North Pole ridge. GFS has a stout Low and very low heights in the GOA.

[srainhoutx]

Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

[DoctorMu]

Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement

Not unusual that far out in Wx Fantasyland.

[DoctorMu]

Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.

Wet and unsettled La Nina? Interesting.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island

[Kingwood36]

12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.

On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island

We could careless if Northern tx gets snow or not lol we are more focused down here on the houston area

[Iceresistance]

12z GEFS has a large percentage of Ensemble Members showing more snow in the Southern Plains starting at +318 hours, which is unusual.