December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:15 pm Iceresistance is that a good or bad thing for us?
Remember that a +PNA means that the Cold Air gets pushed more towards the East Coast?
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:15 pm Iceresistance is that a good or bad thing for us?
We want a neutral PNA.
Stratton20
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Ah gotcha well im putting my money on a neutral PNA, im not buying the GFS, its too far east, the euro has a more neutral pna solution
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Nov 25, 2021 5:58 pm Ah gotcha well im putting my money on a neutral PNA, im not buying the GFS, its too far east, the euro has a more neutral pna solution
So did the 12z GFS . . .
Stratton20
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Iceresistance its 12+ days out, its going to change alot, im not gonna put a whole lot of trust into the PNA right now, especially since the 12z Euro favors a more neutral pna phase,
Iceresistance
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The CFS is still very consistent with the December Cold Wave Round #2 (And maybe #3) around Christmas Week, & it has finally jumped up with the Euro on the Chilly Blast on the 12z run (It's behind every model run by 1 run time)
Iceresistance
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0z GFS has a more Neutral PNA on the first cold wave compared to the 18z GFS
Iceresistance
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The 6z GFS is featuring POWERFUL Highs in December.

1067 MB & 1060 MB at the same time
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Another 1059 MB, over Montana
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The Powerful Blocks over Alaska & Greenland will do the trick.
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Very Cold Air comes screaming in with these Powerful Highs
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3 BIG Winter Storms are also in play
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24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall
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Kingwood36
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Nothing even remotely close to snow down here lol...yet
Iceresistance
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0z Euro has a more positive PNA
Kingwood36
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We need that postive to go kick rocks lol 😆
Iceresistance
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I forgot to mention that a Negative PNA would also be nice since as it turns positive, the cold air from the West Coast will eventually come here
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DoctorMu
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GFS 06z has a very light freeze in HOU and mid 20s in CLL on Dec 11. Not unusual for mid December. There does seem significant support behind the cold mass (-15°F to -40°F in Montana, Dakotas), so the unusual part could be the length/reinforcement of the cold snap.

It's a long way off. We'll see.
Iceresistance
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12z GFS is surging it MUCH faster compared to the 6z!
Iceresistance
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End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance yup i saw that
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DoctorMu
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:37 am End of the 12z run on the GFS has a Snowstorm for DFW & Oklahoma.
True, but 20-50°F warmer in that run in the Rockies. I expect this fantasy to fade away. :lol:
Iceresistance
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18z GFS trended colder again compared to 12z
Kingwood36
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I'm about 50/50 of this becoming a reality
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sambucol
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The trend is our friend👍
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