December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Texas only gets a glancing blow from the December Polar Vortex in the 18z GFS, but this is previewing what may happen this coming February . . .
Kingwood36
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Glancing blows are getter then nothing I suppose
Stratton20
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im not sold on a goancing blow or a direct hit from the cold air yet, probably wont know that answer for another 8-9 days
Iceresistance
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0z GFS is still on a Glancing blow for Texas, but it has trended slightly southward again . . .
Stratton20
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Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:41 pm Iceresistance meh the GFS doesn’t show much of a cooldown at all, I think the model is really struggling to pick up on how much cold air is up in the source region right now
Likely underestimating/overestimating the cold air in the source region?
Stratton20
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Iceresistance yes, because it literally has little to no cooldown for us anymore in the long range, but we will see, seems like cold arctic air always gives the models fits
Cpv17
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I’m not going to get too excited or believe anything till it’s within 5 days. Anything past that is a crapshoot. The cold pool of water south of Alaska could be a big detriment towards our winter this season. We really need that area to warm up. Hard to get cold air down here with below average SST’s in that region.
Stratton20
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CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas🤢🤮🤮😂
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:54 pm CPV17 well lets hope those sea temps warm up soon, definitely dont want a repeat from winter a few years back where christmas was in the low 80’s in SE Texas🤢🤮🤮😂
I once had a streak from 2016-2019 when there was a Thunderstorm on Christmas Day or Eve in Springfield, MO when I was with my Great-Grandparents.
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