December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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sambucol
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Re: December 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:49 pm

Wondering because of this article from a week ago:
https://www.click2houston.com/business/ ... tent=kprc2
Report: Texas still at risk of winter power blackouts

Stratton20
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Re: December 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:50 pm

It really is hard to say even if this long range forecast verified to kniw if we would have any black outs, but I definitely don't trust ERCON and the power grid anymore

Iceresistance
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Re: December 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

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sambucol
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Re: December 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm

Agreed. I don’t know if they did anything to the grid to make it stronger. Or if it was weakened last winter from the winter apocalypse, and will fail under less harsh conditions.

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Re: December 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm

sambucol wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:32 pm
Iceresistance wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:51 am
Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.
Thinking ahead. If that does verify, how cold? Wondering if we will have rolling blackouts.
Almost the entire state is below freezing, most areas are down to the 20s, including Austin, DFW, & Houston. Panhandle & NW Texas is down the the Teens & single digits.

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sambucol
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Re: December 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.

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sambucol
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Re: December 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm

If that verifies, and the whole state is below freezing, rolling blackouts wouldn’t be out of the question.

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Re: December 2021

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm

Looks like this arctic blast is around the 5th of december time frame though the GFS does show the arctic air beginning yo enter the US by hour 240 which is 10 days from now

Iceresistance
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Re: December 2021

Post by Iceresistance » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:07 pm

sambucol wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm
Iceresistance wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge

What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.
The 12z GEFS Members generally start the snowfall around December 4th or 5th & ends around December 9th or 10th
Last edited by Iceresistance on Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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sambucol
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Re: December 2021

Post by sambucol » Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm

I’ll be watching.

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