December 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:12 pm Looks like some pool weather here in CS the next 5-7 days lol
I'm expecting highs near 80 in the next couple of days.


It's December! Not August or May!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:40 am Welcome to the first day of the meteorological winter. Enjoy, cold weather lovers. I hope it stays above 25 degrees this season. My countdown to Spring begins now.
Welp, you've gotten your wish! A beautiful Spring day in the Brazos Valley...SW breeze. Unfortunately, that blows my neighbor's leaves into our yard! :lol:
Stratton20
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Iceresistance anything above 70 is considered pool weather to me😂😂
Iceresistance
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Spring was dragging late, so was Summer, will Winter do the same thing & keep that trend going?
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DoctorMu
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GFS weak with cold air over the next 14 days. Canadian is a little more aggressive, but we'd only be seasonable mid Dec instead of cold. Euro slides the cold air east of us.

Ice - it's like our weather has been on a 30 day phase delay (lagging) over the entire year. Cooler than average until October. A/C bills have been way too high for Fall.
Kingwood36
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I broke out with sweat putting up Christmas lights today...lol..crimes against humanity😂
Iceresistance
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:50 pm GFS weak with cold air over the next 14 days. Canadian is a little more aggressive, but we'd only be seasonable mid Dec instead of cold. Euro slides the cold air east of us.

Ice - it's like our weather has been on a 30 day phase delay (lagging) over the entire year. Cooler than average until October. A/C bills have been way too high for Fall.
Sometimes the Weather patterns are about as bad as Lag on the Internet! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Stratton20
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These model runs are boring with a capital B! Nothing even remotely interesting showing up
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snowman65
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Sorry folks....winter's closed...
Iceresistance
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:42 am Sorry folks....winter's closed...
Did we have the same mindset this past winter?
Cromagnum
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What a boring winter. It's going to be hot again before we know it without even getting a break.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:47 am What a boring winter. It's going to be hot again before we know it without even getting a break.
Possibly. What really concerns me right now is a bad drought setting in as we go into the summer.
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tireman4
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FXUS64 KHGX 021137
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
537 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021

.UPDATE...

VIS obs of 1/2SM to 1/4SM are becoming increasingly prevalent
across Southeast Texas. The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect
through 9AM this morning. Be sure to give yourself extra time for
the morning commute and take the proper precautions out on the
roadways if you encounter dense fog: slow down, leave plenty of
space between you and the vehicle in front of you, and use your
low beam headlights.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Areas of dense fog settling in across the area with numerous
sites experiencing LIFR or VLIFR conditions. CLL, SGR, CXO, LBX,
and GLS have been the most impacted overnight by VIS obs of 1/2SM
or less. Fog will burn off by 15Z and give way to VFR conditions
and southerly winds around 7-10 knots. Winds will become light and
variable after sunset. SREF guidance indicating another round of
dense fog tonight with VIS beginning to drop just after 00Z for
coastal sites (GLS and LBX) and around 04Z-06Z for the inland
sites. The widespread IFR (and lower) conditions will persist
through 15Z on Friday. MVFR CIGs will prevail throughout most of
Friday.

Batiste

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 333 AM CST Thu Dec 2 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Friday Night]...

On this episode of Fog Week, we`re back to the usual timing of areas
of dense fog developing just after midnight with the initial absence
of upper-level cloud cover. Instead of playing the piece-by-piece
game, we decided to issue today`s Dense Fog Advisory for the entire
CWA through 9 AM given the downward trends in early morning obs
and NT Microphysics/Night Fog satellite imagery. You may be asking
yourself, why are we still getting fog?! Well our synoptic
pattern hasn`t really changed with upper-level ridging still
prevailing and surface high pressure to our east continuing to
funnel in low-level moisture. The fog will burn off by the mid-
morning hours as daytime heating begins. Temperatures today will
run 10+ degrees above normal once again with highs in the upper
70s/low 80s (seasonal high temperatures: upper 60s). Expect the
same for tonight`s temperatures with lows mainly in the low 60s
(seasonal low temperatures: upper 40s). The Fog Week marathon
continues Thursday night/Friday morning with SREF guidance being
very aggressive on probabilities of surface visibility less than
1SM across the majority of SE Texas.

After the fog burns off on Friday morning, the story turns
to...rain?! A shortwave trough will skirt across the region on
Friday and bring the potential for rain, but there`s a couple of
factors that may hinder this. Model soundings for Friday indicate a
subsidence inversion around 850 mb along with a deep layer of dry
air aloft, which is not favorable for convection. PWATs will
generally range from 1.2"-1.5", so I left in 20% PoPs to cover for
isolated rain showers or a rogue thunderstorm. I am more confident
that there will be increased cloud cover on Friday as a result of
the shortwave, which will result in temperatures being a tad bit
cooler (by a few degrees) compared to Thursday. Flow aloft becomes
zonal by Friday night following the departure of the shortwave
trough. Speaking of Friday night...Fog Week is expected to continue
with SREF guidance indicating yet another round of patchy to areas
of dense fog. When will this fog streak end? Will I eventually make
it through a shift without issuing a Dense Fog Advisory? Find out on
the next episode of Fog Week!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

A weak short wave over North Texas coupled with weak warm air
advection (WAA) will allow for a few showers across the region.
Fcst soundings show a dryish moisture profile but capping weakens
between 18-21z so will mention a slight chance of showers. MaxT
values will remain unseasonably warm with high temperatures in the
lower 80`s. Sunday looks similar with warm 850 mb temps, a dry
moisture profile etc...Will maintain lowish PoPs and keep MaxT
values around 80 degrees.

On Monday, a cold front is expected to cross SE TX but there are
some timing differences between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.
Surface winds veer to the SW ahead of the front so low level
convergence is weaker and frontogenetic forcing also looks weak.
Not expecting much precip along the front but will go with chance
PoPs over the east and slight chance out west. Temperatures should
trend closer to climo in the wake of the front with high
temperatures on Monday warming into the upper 60`s. Clear skies
expected to start Monday night but clouds return quickly after 06z
with the moisture profile showing a saturated moisture profile
below 800 mb. A short wave over NW TX will move east on Tuesday
with surface low pressure developing over North Texas. The
combination of WAA lift associated with the short wave will bring
the area a chance of showers. MaxT values will warm well above
climo again with high temperatures warming into the mid/upper
70`s. The gradient looks kind of tight on Tuesday so it looks
breezy. Another cold front will cross the coast on Wednesday but
there are significant model differences on moisture placement and
upper level support. The GFS and Canadian are wet while the ECMWF
and ensembles look dry. Will start out tame and wait for a better
model consensus. 43

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will produce a
light onshore flow today through Saturday. Winds will increase on
Sunday as low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies. Winds
will veer to the southwest Sunday night into Monday as a cold
front pushes into the coastal waters. The front should move across
the coastal waters by Monday afternoon with winds becoming N-NE
and increasing. Surface high pressure building into TX behind the
front will move to the east quickly resulting in onshore winds
returning by Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 78 60 77 62 79 / 0 0 20 10 20
Houston (IAH) 79 60 78 61 80 / 0 0 20 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 78 65 74 66 76 / 0 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$
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snowman65
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and there ya go....
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DoctorMu
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Iceresistance wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:11 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:50 pm GFS weak with cold air over the next 14 days. Canadian is a little more aggressive, but we'd only be seasonable mid Dec instead of cold. Euro slides the cold air east of us.

Ice - it's like our weather has been on a 30 day phase delay (lagging) over the entire year. Cooler than average until October. A/C bills have been way too high for Fall.
Sometimes the Weather patterns are about as bad as Lag on the Internet! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Got us some of that fiber optic interwebz in September. We're good now. 8-)

RIP Winter 2022.
Iceresistance
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:32 am and there ya go....
The Weather Channel did the exact same thing in February 2021, only for the BIGGEST UNO Reverse you've ever seen!
Iceresistance
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:33 am
Iceresistance wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:11 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:50 pm GFS weak with cold air over the next 14 days. Canadian is a little more aggressive, but we'd only be seasonable mid Dec instead of cold. Euro slides the cold air east of us.

Ice - it's like our weather has been on a 30 day phase delay (lagging) over the entire year. Cooler than average until October. A/C bills have been way too high for Fall.
Sometimes the Weather patterns are about as bad as Lag on the Internet! :lol: :lol: :lol:
Got us some of that fiber optic interwebz in September. We're good now. 8-)

RIP Winter 2022.
(bolded): I'm planning to get CVEC fiber optics, their internet potential is extremely high.

And would it be extremely brutal for winter to be gone before it even started?

EDIT: A stratwarm for next week has been picked up on ALL of the models, Christmas Week to New Years could be the impact zone for the SSW.
Stratton20
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Yawn im already turning my dreadful attention towards the summer, we wont have a winter this year unless something drastically changes in the weather pattern down the road, wouldnt be shocked if it was 80 degrees at Christmas lol
Kingwood36
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Kinda premature to say we won't have a winter..we have no idea what Jan and even Feb will bring us...we can't look into the future
Stratton20
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Kingwood36 you are right their, however if the sea temps remain cooler than normal around alaska, then we may not get any good cold snaps at all this winter
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