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Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:12 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:53 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:38 pm
Thats far too out on the model to be worried about right now IMO
But the GFS has consistency on the potential December Cold Wave, this storm is only proving it, it needs to be watched very closely . . .
I feel like when you look at something that far out, it’s always better to go by the ensembles. I do agree that it’s something to watch though.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:20 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance Yes I do agree it is something to be watched, but it is 12-13 days out, so expect changes
Re: December 2021
Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:02 pm
by DoctorMu
Light freeze Dec 8/9 near the Houston area, but that's no surprise.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by Stratton20
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:51 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:01 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance definitely something to keep a close eye on as we move closer to december
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:16 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:01 pm
Iceresistance definitely something to keep a close eye on as we move closer to december
Forgot to mention that there are 2 POWERFUL High Pressure areas in December as well, 1059 MB in Wyoming & 1056 MB in Colorado
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
by Stratton20
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:32 pm
by sambucol
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:51 am
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.
Thinking ahead. If that does verify, how cold? Wondering if we will have rolling blackouts.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:34 pm
by Stratton20
Sambucol it would be very cold but nothing like last february though, thats if this verified, still too far out but at least their is a signal
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:49 pm
by sambucol
Wondering because of this article from a week ago:
https://www.click2houston.com/business/ ... tent=kprc2
Report: Texas still at risk of winter power blackouts
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:50 pm
by Stratton20
It really is hard to say even if this long range forecast verified to kniw if we would have any black outs, but I definitely don't trust ERCON and the power grid anymore
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm
by sambucol
Agreed. I don’t know if they did anything to the grid to make it stronger. Or if it was weakened last winter from the winter apocalypse, and will fail under less harsh conditions.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm
by Iceresistance
sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:32 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:51 am
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.
Thinking ahead. If that does verify, how cold? Wondering if we will have rolling blackouts.
Almost the entire state is below freezing, most areas are down to the 20s, including Austin, DFW, & Houston. Panhandle & NW Texas is down the the Teens & single digits.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm
by sambucol
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm
by sambucol
If that verifies, and the whole state is below freezing, rolling blackouts wouldn’t be out of the question.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm
by Stratton20
Looks like this arctic blast is around the 5th of december time frame though the GFS does show the arctic air beginning yo enter the US by hour 240 which is 10 days from now
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:07 pm
by Iceresistance
sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.
The 12z GEFS Members generally start the snowfall around December 4th or 5th & ends around December 9th or 10th
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm
by sambucol
I’ll be watching.
