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Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:49 pm
by sambucol
Wondering because of this article from a week ago:
https://www.click2houston.com/business/ ... tent=kprc2
Report: Texas still at risk of winter power blackouts
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:50 pm
by Stratton20
It really is hard to say even if this long range forecast verified to kniw if we would have any black outs, but I definitely don't trust ERCON and the power grid anymore
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm
by sambucol
Agreed. I don’t know if they did anything to the grid to make it stronger. Or if it was weakened last winter from the winter apocalypse, and will fail under less harsh conditions.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:59 pm
by Iceresistance
sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:32 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:51 am
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 am
by days 11-13 the 12z GFS is showing the potential for a huge arctic outbreak in early december, still far out but their definitely is a growing signal for this
Also 2 Major Central & Southern Plains Snowstorms, the entire State of Texas will go under a deep freeze if the 12z GFS verified.
Thinking ahead. If that does verify, how cold? Wondering if we will have rolling blackouts.
Almost the entire state is below freezing, most areas are down to the 20s, including Austin, DFW, & Houston. Panhandle & NW Texas is down the the Teens & single digits.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm
by sambucol
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm
by sambucol
If that verifies, and the whole state is below freezing, rolling blackouts wouldn’t be out of the question.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:06 pm
by Stratton20
Looks like this arctic blast is around the 5th of december time frame though the GFS does show the arctic air beginning yo enter the US by hour 240 which is 10 days from now
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:07 pm
by Iceresistance
sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:04 pm
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:58 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:17 pm
That would definitely mean some seriously cold air for december, model support is starting to grow on to this arctic blast, will see as we get closer to that timeframe
The Ensembles are also showing loose signal for Snowfall in Texas, Oklahoma, & Louisiana in the same timeframe as well, this could be huge
What are the actual dates the models are showing? I know it’s in the area of it could go either way.
The 12z GEFS Members generally start the snowfall around December 4th or 5th & ends around December 9th or 10th
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm
by sambucol
I’ll be watching.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm
by sambucol
The 4th/5th isn’t that far off.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:13 pm
by Iceresistance
Right now, the 12z Euro is COLDER than the 12z GFS.
sambucol wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:09 pm
The 4th/5th isn’t that far off.
It's only 9-10 Days away, KFOR is already showing lows in the mid-20s in OKC around December 5th as well
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:24 pm
by Stratton20
12z Euro is very cold
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:25 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:24 pm
12z Euro is very cold
Colder faster! O_O
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:26 pm
by Iceresistance
Iceresistance wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:16 pm
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:01 pm
Iceresistance definitely something to keep a close eye on as we move closer to december
Forgot to mention that there are 2 POWERFUL High Pressure areas in December as well, 1059 MB in Wyoming &
1056 MB in Colorado
Correction: 1058 MB High in Colorado
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:27 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yup Euro brings the arctic air here into texas by day 10 while the GFS is a few days later
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:13 pm
by Iceresistance
This is the mean 850 MB Temperature anomalies from the 12z GEFS at +234 hours.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:21 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance seems like the GEFS is faster with the arctic air compared to the GFS
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:28 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:21 pm
Iceresistance seems like the GEFS is faster with the arctic air compared to the GFS
It's also very close to the Euro model as well!
Mean Euro Ensembles shows a trough with possibly cold air (Never shows the Temperatures) at +216 Hours, CMCE does not want to have much of it right now.
Re: December 2021
Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2021 3:30 pm
by Stratton20
Iceresistance we will have to keep our fingers crossed!
