August Weather Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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wxdata wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:I notice an upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1
Sitting right over Corpus Christi. Apparently the upper high is still too strong creating subsidence for the system to provide much precipitation.
The cockroach ridge prevails. :evil:
ticka1
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Week two of four weeks in August and no tropical threat. Hopefully the weeks will fly by and we will soon have the cool/coldfronts dropping in....sorry if folks want to see tropical activity - I don't.

Need a passing shower on my yard - its getting dry again - but this heat ridge is firmly in place for the next day or two. I'm sure its not going anywhere for at least 6-8 weeks. My A/C and me are best friends this year.
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wxdata
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Let's hope the upper system (Invest 94) just brings a break from the heat and some much needed rain!
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wxdata wrote:Let's hope the upper system (Invest 94) just brings a break from the heat and some much needed rain!
wxdata I hope this forecast pans out!
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srainhoutx
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Another blistering HOT day...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1003 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT READINGS BETWEEN 1-3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS SAME TIME
YDAY...SO EXPECT TO SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
CWA.
ONGOING FCST IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO
THE GRIDS BASED ON LATEST CONDITIONS. 47
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Tropical moisture surge (upper low/inverted trough) moving into SE TX this evening. Hopefully some ‘cooler’ and better rain chances ahead.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mr. T
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Those of you looking for heat relief would love the 0z Euro's solution. It is probably overdone, but the model brings a bonafide August cold front through the area. Not only would it drop dewpoints into the comfortable zone, but overnight lows would dip well into the 60s.

Again, probably overdone, but all global models have been flirting with the idea of a frontal boundary moving into the area next week.

I'm suprised this current heat wave has lasted as long as it has, especially given the pattern during July. I previously noted that I thought this hot and dry pattern wouldn't last for too long as models were hinting at another SE ridge developing, but that hasn't happened.
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[quote="Mr. T"]Those of you looking for heat relief would love the 0z Euro's solution. It is probably overdone, but the model brings a bonafide August cold front through the area. Not only would it drop dewpoints into the comfortable zone, but overnight lows would dip well into the 60s.

OH this would be a welcome relief for sure!!!! I will dance in yard and have a party!!! LOL
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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Mr. T
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rnmm wrote: OH this would be a welcome relief for sure!!!! I will dance in yard and have a party!!! LOL
The Euro has since backed off on such an extreme cold front for this time of year, however, models are still going with a pattern change next week that will bring an end to the extreme heat and the beginnings of good rain chances for several days. The NWS states:

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND CANADIAN SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH BODES WELL FOR INCREASED POPS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 5
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES (PER GFS). WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS...AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
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The Euro has since backed off on such an extreme cold front for this time of year, however, models are still going with a pattern change next week that will bring an end to the extreme heat and the beginnings of good rain chances for several days. The NWS states:

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
AND CANADIAN SHOW A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH BODES WELL FOR INCREASED POPS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
THE UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WITH A WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF REGION. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TD 5
SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS PERIOD WITH PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2.5
INCHES (PER GFS). WILL FORECAST CHANCE POPS...AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL...BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.[/quote]

Sorry if I sound like an idiot here, but what are the normal temps for our area for this time of year?
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Mr. T
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rnmm wrote:
Sorry if I sound like an idiot here, but what are the normal temps for our area for this time of year?
mid 90s ... mid 70s

If a frontal boundary does move into the area, it would become a great focus for showers and thunderstorms. I could see a few highs in the 80s next week like we saw in July.
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Thank you Mr. T, the 80's would be a welcome sight in my opinion. I will be glad when the humidity isn't so high!!
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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Mr. T
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rnmm wrote:Thank you Mr. T, the 80's would be a welcome sight in my opinion. I will be glad when the humidity isn't so high!!
If we can get the upper trough over the Great Lakes next week to dig fairly far to the south, maybe we can get some drier dewpoint air to advect into the area from the east... That'd be nice
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I think the biggest change in temps around here over the past few years has been the very warm overnight lows. We consistently stay higher than our average at night.
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Mr. T
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Candy Cane wrote:I think the biggest change in temps around here over the past few years has been the very warm overnight lows. We consistently stay higher than our average at night.
Definitely. The UHI at IAH has made the current 1971-2000 climate normals virtually useless. Overnight lows have been getting so warm at IAH, sometimes even Hobby Airport has a cooler overnight low than IAH (for example, this morning). I can tell you that it was not 83 degrees this morning on the north side of town. I was up around 7:30 this morning when the outdoor thermometer read 80 degrees, which was the same as Hooks. Hooks is a much better representation of what temperatures are like WHERE PEOPLE ACTUALLY LIVE north of the Beltway

Check out this morning's low temps:
Hooks 80
Sugar Land 79
Hobby 81
College Station 79
Conroe 78
Huntsville 78
IAH 83

lolwut? Thanks to IAH being an awful climate site, today's low for the city of Houston will officially be 83 degrees.

I mean, yeah, it's only a couple of degrees off of what it should be. But, when this site is consistently doing it every single day of the month, the temperature departure is suddenly out of whack compared to nearby sites (sometimes up to 2 or 3 degrees warmer than surrounding departures). This is because of the usage of the 1971-2000 climate normals at IAH. This period was before UHI really became a big issue at IAH over the last decade thanks to all of the development that has occured at the airport (more concrete, less trees)

Pardon my french, but that is f'n ridiculous.

If you look around at other locations that are not IAH, like Hooks or Sugar Land, there hasn't been a change in overnight lows for the past couple of years.

This is what happens when you designate an official climate site 5 ft. from a runway.
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Mr. T
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CLIMATE...
A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY MORNING
AT HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. THIS READING TIED THE RECORD
SET FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST...AND IS ONLY ONE DEGREE SHY OF THE
ALL-TIME HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR HOUSTON.

HOUSTON/IAH: MIN TEMP 83 DEGREES
NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE (PREVIOUS RECORD 81 DEGREES SET IN 2008)
TIES RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST (LAST SET AUGUST 4 1980)
ALL-TIME RECORD: 84 DEGREES SET ON JULY 29 1895

Sorry, HGX. Nobody cares about these inflated readings anymore. I know you guys are just about as giddy as a schoolgirl that it's just so close to the all-time record, but why are the surrounding climate sites nowhere near their daily records, hmmm?
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What do the highs and lows for the second half of next week and next weekend look like, Mr. T? A return of typical August temperatuers & heat?
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srainhoutx
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While we do not know if Ex TD 5 will regenerate as it migrates W early this week into a Tropical system again, it does appear that rain chances will increase...here's hoping anyway...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151130-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0002.100814T1959Z-100816T0100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
259 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY.

HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE RISEN ABOVE 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AT
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REACHED THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE
70S.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES LIKELY PEAKING IN THE 106 TO 112 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxdata
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0z run shifted rains eastward a bit
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