Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Iceresistance
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Watch the 12z GEFS at your own risk.
Stratton20
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Iceresistance what does it show
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 12:23 pm Iceresistance what does it show
Crazy Ensemble Member Snowfall & Mean Snowfall, but the Run is not done yet.

The fun on the GEFS really begins on February 1st.
Iceresistance
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12z GFS has something potentially big at the end of the run, & it's coming this way (More info on S2K)
Stratton20
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Iceresistance yup has a deep trough digging into the southwest, too bad its fantasyland because that would definitely be something interesting to watch
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 1:21 pm Iceresistance yup has a deep trough digging into the southwest, too bad its fantasyland because that would definitely be something interesting to watch
Unless it develops consistency
Stratton20
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Iceresistance we will see, their is alot of cold air behind that trough on that particular run, for now just something to casually watch
Iceresistance
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18z GFS WOW! (More info. on S2K)
Stratton20
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Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Yeah that looks to be headed out west. Not down the central part of the country.
Stratton20
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CPV17 Yep, hope the ridge doesn’t make a return, that would be a blowtorch pattern, good thing this is 16 days out so it’s definitely gonna change
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Nooooo, not the SE Ridge!
Stratton20
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00z GFS has moved up this potential dip in the jet from hour 384 to hour 312, when a model moves up something by a few days that’s something to definitely watch
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Iceresistance
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How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

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Stratton20
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18z GEFS sniffing out maybe another shot at wintry mischief late next weekend? Seems to be the next Sunday timeframe
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Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:14 pm How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

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Because it’s probably not coming here lol
Iceresistance
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With the MJO out of action right now, it's really messing up the models, making forecasts over 5 days out very diffcult.
Stratton20
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The only good news I can see say right now is the 12z GEFS heading into the first week of february is trending cooler than normal conditions for the central US
Cpv17
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I actually don’t really think the models look all that bad. I see a lot of average or below average temps for the next couple weeks.
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